Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Malaysia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Malaysia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.723 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.88 | 2023 (69.7) |
Latest observed2.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.31 | 3.3 | -0.69 | 0.88 – 1.73 |
| 2028 | 0.72 | 4.17 | -2.74 | -0.04 – 1.47 |
| 2030 | 0.13 | 4.59 | -4.33 | -0.86 – 1.12 |
| 2035 | -1.34 | 4.97 | -7.65 | -2.84 – 0.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.79typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.86 | 83.55 | 61.72 | 69.04 – 74.68 |
| 2028 | 73.64 | 93.89 | 56.08 | 67.21 – 80.06 |
| 2030 | 75.41 | 101.56 | 52.75 | 65.65 – 85.18 |
| 2035 | 79.86 | 116.84 | 47.81 | 61.8 – 97.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead71.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.01typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed472.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 486.5bn | 539.8bn | 440.3bn | 471.4bn – 501.6bn |
| 2028 | 524.7bn | 617bn | 444.8bn | 485.9bn – 563.6bn |
| 2030 | 563bn | 682.1bn | 459.7bn | 499bn – 626.9bn |
| 2035 | 658.5bn | 827bn | 512.5bn | 521.9bn – 795.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead573.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±60.6bntypical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.16 | 12 | -2.75 | 4.34 – 7.97 |
| 2028 | 8.32 | 12 | -7.1 | 4.95 – 11.69 |
| 2030 | 10.48 | 12 | -9.43 | 5.82 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.66 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.96typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.4k | 14.9k | 12.1k | 13k – 13.8k |
| 2028 | 14.2k | 16.9k | 11.9k | 13.1k – 15.2k |
| 2030 | 15k | 18.4k | 12k | 13.3k – 16.7k |
| 2035 | 17k | 21.8k | 12.7k | 13.4k – 20.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.54 | 79.41 | 64.62 | 70.3 – 74.79 |
| 2028 | 76.63 | 88.52 | 62.91 | 70.96 – 82.3 |
| 2030 | 80.72 | 96.07 | 63.01 | 71.56 – 89.89 |
| 2035 | 90.94 | 112.65 | 65.89 | 72.08 – 109.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead70.2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.34typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66.6 | 76.1 | 57.1 | 64.08 – 69.12 |
| 2028 | 68.96 | 85.41 | 52.5 | 63.13 – 74.78 |
| 2030 | 71.31 | 92.55 | 50.06 | 62.35 – 80.26 |
| 2035 | 77.18 | 107.23 | 47.14 | 60.24 – 94.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead66.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.48typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.27 | 4.67 | -2.38 | 0.49 – 2.04 |
| 2028 | 0.63 | 6.52 | -5 | -0.72 – 1.99 |
| 2030 | -0 | 7.6 | -5 | -1.77 – 1.76 |
| 2035 | -1.59 | 9.17 | -5 | -4.23 – 1.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.93typical miss · 1 realized · 42% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.68 | 24.4 | 19.33 | 20.95 – 22.42 |
| 2028 | 22.45 | 27.16 | 18.37 | 20.7 – 24.2 |
| 2030 | 23.22 | 29.29 | 17.95 | 20.49 – 25.94 |
| 2035 | 25.14 | 33.73 | 17.69 | 19.89 – 30.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.86typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.9m | 37.6m | 34.3m | 34.8m – 37m |
| 2028 | 36.3m | 38m | 34.7m | 33.6m – 39m |
| 2030 | 36.8m | 38.5m | 35.2m | 32.6m – 41m |
| 2035 | 37.9m | 39.7m | 36.3m | 30.1m – 45.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6mtypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.22 | 13.75 | -4.69 | 1.85 – 4.59 |
| 2028 | 3.46 | 15 | -10 | 1.02 – 5.91 |
| 2030 | 3.71 | 15 | -10 | 0.47 – 6.96 |
| 2035 | 4.34 | 15 | -10 | -0.52 – 9.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.54· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.29typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed120.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 122.1bn | 129.8bn | 114.4bn | 118.3bn – 125.9bn |
| 2028 | 127.2bn | 140.5bn | 113.8bn | 117.8bn – 136.6bn |
| 2030 | 132.2bn | 149.5bn | 115bn | 117.2bn – 147.3bn |
| 2035 | 144.9bn | 169.3bn | 120.6bn | 114.9bn – 175bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead121.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.51 | 5.73 | 3.29 | 4.25 – 4.77 |
| 2028 | 4.79 | 6.91 | 2.67 | 4.23 – 5.34 |
| 2030 | 4.92 | 7.66 | 2.19 | 4.11 – 5.74 |
| 2035 | 5.03 | 8.9 | 1.16 | 3.64 – 6.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.4typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 128.2bn | 136.5bn | 119.8bn | 124.2bn – 132.1bn |
| 2028 | 134.8bn | 149.2bn | 120.4bn | 124.8bn – 144.8bn |
| 2030 | 141.4bn | 160bn | 122.8bn | 125.4bn – 157.5bn |
| 2035 | 158bn | 184.3bn | 131.7bn | 125.2bn – 190.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead127.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.58 | 4.14 | 3.02 | 3.44 – 3.73 |
| 2028 | 3.22 | 4.19 | 2.25 | 2.92 – 3.52 |
| 2030 | 2.86 | 4.11 | 1.61 | 2.44 – 3.28 |
| 2035 | 1.95 | 3.72 | 0.19 | 1.37 – 2.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.96· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.58typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MYS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | -2.92 | 2024 (69.8) |
| 2028 | -3.2 | 2025 (70.5) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 25.2352 + -0.4033·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.632 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.73 | 2024 (422.2bn) |
| 2027 | 68.99 | 2025 (472.2bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 38.1251 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.597 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 345.9bn | 2025 (70.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -87917162627.9028 + 6153668881.4217·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.535 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.84 | 2025 (70.5) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.4786 + 0.0194·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MYS?indicator= · API docs
