Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
North America: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, North America's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.769 over 8 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.79 | 2023 (3.84) |
Latest observed12.53(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12.38 | 14.26 | 10.75 | 11.91 – 12.85 |
| 2027 | 12.08 | 15.33 | 9.25 | 11.03 – 13.12 |
| 2029 | 11.77 | 15.98 | 8.13 | 10.23 – 13.31 |
| 2034 | 11.01 | 16.96 | 5.86 | 8.4 – 13.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.45typical miss · 20 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.4T | 36.3T | 32.7T | 33.3T – 35.4T |
| 2028 | 37.6T | 41T | 34.7T | 34.9T – 40.4T |
| 2030 | 40.9T | 45.2T | 37.1T | 36.3T – 45.5T |
| 2035 | 49T | 55.2T | 43.7T | 38.9T – 59.2T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.6T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.8Ttypical miss · 25 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.05 | 10.44 | -5.22 | 0.62 – 3.48 |
| 2028 | 1.86 | 12 | -10 | -0.65 – 4.37 |
| 2030 | 1.67 | 12 | -10 | -1.59 – 4.93 |
| 2035 | 1.2 | 12 | -10 | -3.41 – 5.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.23typical miss · 25 realized · 149% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 89.1k | 94.4k | 84.6k | 86.4k – 91.9k |
| 2028 | 96.5k | 105.5k | 88.6k | 89.3k – 103.6k |
| 2030 | 103.8k | 115.5k | 93.7k | 92k – 115.6k |
| 2035 | 122.2k | 138.8k | 107.8k | 96.8k – 147.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead89.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.2ktypical miss · 25 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.38(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.26 | 17.28 | 13.24 | 14.71 – 15.81 |
| 2027 | 15.02 | 18.51 | 11.52 | 13.76 – 16.27 |
| 2029 | 14.77 | 19.29 | 10.26 | 12.9 – 16.64 |
| 2034 | 14.16 | 20.55 | 7.78 | 10.92 – 17.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.26· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.89typical miss · 20 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.67(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.33 | 7.68 | -3.41 | 1.1 – 3.55 |
| 2027 | 0.46 | 9.73 | -5 | -1.64 – 2.56 |
| 2029 | -1.4 | 10.56 | -5 | -4.17 – 1.36 |
| 2034 | -5 | 11.93 | -5 | -5 – -0.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.45typical miss · 2 realized · 64% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.46(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.47 | 22.6 | 20.49 | 20.8 – 22.14 |
| 2027 | 21.49 | 22.62 | 20.52 | 19.9 – 23.08 |
| 2029 | 21.52 | 22.65 | 20.54 | 19.07 – 23.96 |
| 2034 | 21.58 | 22.71 | 20.6 | 17.1 – 26.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.56typical miss · 20 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed383.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 382.3m | 400.4m | 365.5m | 370.5m – 394.2m |
| 2028 | 384.7m | 402.9m | 367.8m | 356.2m – 413.2m |
| 2030 | 387.1m | 405.4m | 370.1m | 343.1m – 431m |
| 2035 | 393.1m | 411.6m | 375.8m | 311.5m – 474.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead385.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.8mtypical miss · 25 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.34 | 6.65 | -0.89 | 1.77 – 2.92 |
| 2028 | 3.21 | 10.68 | -2.39 | 2.13 – 4.3 |
| 2030 | 4.08 | 13.72 | -3.15 | 2.55 – 5.61 |
| 2035 | 6.26 | 15 | -3.97 | 3.55 – 8.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.71· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.86typical miss · 25 realized · 133% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 3.14 | 1.78 | 2.32 – 2.6 |
| 2028 | 2.14 | 3.31 | 0.96 | 1.86 – 2.42 |
| 2030 | 1.98 | 3.5 | 0.46 | 1.59 – 2.37 |
| 2035 | 1.85 | 4 | 0 | 1.23 – 2.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.83· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.87 | 6.28 | 1.46 | 3.44 – 4.3 |
| 2028 | 2.58 | 6.75 | 0 | 1.82 – 3.34 |
| 2030 | 1.3 | 6.68 | 0 | 0.37 – 2.23 |
| 2035 | 0 | 7.61 | 0 | 0 – 1.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.76typical miss · 20 realized · 85% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NAC · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2026 | 2.28 | 2024 (4.29) |
| 2027 | 2.51 | 2025 (4.51) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -2.3439 + 1.077·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.652 over 7 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.2T | 2024 (2.67) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 24019999177152.73 + 1194413119562.2664·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.562 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.06 | 2025 (2.13) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.1434 + -0.5077·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NAC?indicator= · API docs
