Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Namibia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Namibia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.776 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.39 | 2023 (12.5bn) |
Latest observed-16.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -15.31 | -3.6 | -27.02 | -17.94 – -12.67 |
| 2028 | -19.73 | 0.55 | -30 | -24.81 – -14.64 |
| 2030 | -24.14 | 2.04 | -30 | -30 – -16.87 |
| 2035 | -30 | 7.02 | -30 | -30 – -17.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-18.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.59typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.13 | 53.98 | 39.33 | 44.27 – 47.99 |
| 2028 | 49.04 | 62.64 | 37.26 | 44.74 – 53.34 |
| 2030 | 51.95 | 69.51 | 36.74 | 45.29 – 58.61 |
| 2035 | 59.22 | 84.05 | 37.71 | 46.2 – 72.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.78typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.6bn | 18.3bn | 13.2bn | 15bn – 16.1bn |
| 2028 | 16.8bn | 21.5bn | 12.8bn | 15.4bn – 18.2bn |
| 2030 | 18.1bn | 24.1bn | 12.8bn | 15.9bn – 20.2bn |
| 2035 | 21.2bn | 29.7bn | 13.8bn | 16.8bn – 25.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.46 | 12 | -7.7 | -0.33 – 3.24 |
| 2028 | 0.9 | 12 | -10 | -2.19 – 4 |
| 2030 | 0.35 | 12 | -10 | -3.67 – 4.37 |
| 2035 | -1.03 | 12 | -10 | -6.77 – 4.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.54typical miss · 1 realized · 27% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9k | 5.9k | 4.1k | 4.7k – 5.1k |
| 2028 | 5.1k | 6.8k | 3.6k | 4.7k – 5.6k |
| 2030 | 5.3k | 7.5k | 3.4k | 4.6k – 6k |
| 2035 | 5.8k | 8.9k | 3.1k | 4.5k – 7.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±795.89typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed67.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.55 | 77.71 | 62.29 | 68.32 – 72.78 |
| 2028 | 76.65 | 89.05 | 62.35 | 70.98 – 82.33 |
| 2030 | 82.76 | 98.76 | 64.29 | 73.36 – 92.15 |
| 2035 | 98.02 | 120.65 | 71.9 | 77.68 – 118.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead68.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.05typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.54 | 76.77 | 58.32 | 65.05 – 70.04 |
| 2028 | 74.82 | 90.8 | 58.84 | 68.79 – 80.86 |
| 2030 | 82.1 | 102.73 | 61.47 | 72.38 – 91.83 |
| 2035 | 100.3 | 129.48 | 71.13 | 79.5 – 121.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead62.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.59typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.35 | 6.36 | 0.13 | 2.63 – 4.07 |
| 2028 | 2.33 | 7.54 | -3.25 | 1.06 – 3.6 |
| 2030 | 1.31 | 8.04 | -5 | -0.29 – 2.91 |
| 2035 | -1.24 | 8.27 | -5 | -3.55 – 1.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.75typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.61 | 30.93 | 15.41 | 21.06 – 24.16 |
| 2028 | 25.16 | 39.57 | 12.68 | 21.9 – 28.43 |
| 2030 | 27.71 | 46.31 | 11.6 | 22.84 – 32.59 |
| 2035 | 34.09 | 60.39 | 11.3 | 24.88 – 43.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.05typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.1m | 3.2m | 2.9m | 3m – 3.2m |
| 2028 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.9m – 3.4m |
| 2030 | 3.2m | 3.4m | 3.1m | 2.8m – 3.6m |
| 2035 | 3.4m | 3.5m | 3.2m | 2.7m – 4.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±51ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.06 | 6.44 | -4.71 | -0.75 – 0.88 |
| 2028 | 1.56 | 12.59 | -6.72 | 0.1 – 3.01 |
| 2030 | 3.05 | 15 | -7.63 | 1.03 – 5.07 |
| 2035 | 6.78 | 15 | -8.33 | 3.18 – 10.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.22· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.14typical miss · 1 realized · 340% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.8bn | 2.7bn | 3.1bn – 3.4bn |
| 2028 | 3.5bn | 4.4bn | 2.6bn | 3.2bn – 3.8bn |
| 2030 | 3.8bn | 5bn | 2.7bn | 3.4bn – 4.3bn |
| 2035 | 4.6bn | 6.2bn | 3bn | 3.6bn – 5.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.96(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.94 | 5.24 | 2.64 | 3.68 – 4.2 |
| 2027 | 3.92 | 6.17 | 1.67 | 3.39 – 4.45 |
| 2029 | 3.91 | 6.81 | 1.01 | 3.15 – 4.67 |
| 2034 | 3.9 | 8 | 0 | 2.65 – 5.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.8bn | 2.7bn | 3.1bn – 3.4bn |
| 2028 | 3.5bn | 4.4bn | 2.6bn | 3.2bn – 3.8bn |
| 2030 | 3.8bn | 5bn | 2.7bn | 3.4bn – 4.3bn |
| 2035 | 4.6bn | 6.2bn | 3bn | 3.6bn – 5.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.88 | 19.91 | 17.85 | 18.3 – 19.47 |
| 2028 | 18.06 | 19.85 | 16.28 | 16.73 – 19.4 |
| 2030 | 17.24 | 19.55 | 14.94 | 15.28 – 19.2 |
| 2035 | 15.19 | 18.45 | 11.94 | 12.04 – 18.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.4· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NAM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | -11.01 | 2024 (13.6bn) |
| 2028 | -13.09 | 2025 (15.1bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 8.7184 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.764 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.41 | 2023 (12.5bn) |
| 2027 | 55.52 | 2024 (13.6bn) |
| 2028 | 60.8 | 2025 (15.1bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 5.4646 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.702 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.63 | 2025 (15.1bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 12.9429 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.699 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.4bn | 2025 (3.51) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 13945463628.878 + -718929871.2037·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NAM?indicator= · API docs
