Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
NAQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, NAQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.791 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.82 | 2023 (0.1) |
Latest observed-3.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.85 | -0.74 | -8.96 | -5.77 – -3.94 |
| 2028 | -4.56 | 2.57 | -11.68 | -6.23 – -2.88 |
| 2030 | -4.26 | 4.93 | -13.46 | -6.48 – -2.04 |
| 2035 | -3.52 | 9.48 | -16.53 | -6.74 – -0.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.28· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.75typical miss · 1 realized · 57% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 947.7bn | 1T | 875.8bn | 918.3bn – 977.1bn |
| 2028 | 984.8bn | 1.1T | 860.2bn | 911.9bn – 1.1T |
| 2030 | 1T | 1.2T | 861bn | 905.8bn – 1.1T |
| 2035 | 1.1T | 1.4T | 887.1bn | 883.3bn – 1.3T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±142.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.97 | 10.14 | 0.5 | 4.03 – 5.92 |
| 2028 | 5.87 | 12 | -1.89 | 4.09 – 7.64 |
| 2030 | 6.76 | 12 | -3.25 | 4.29 – 9.22 |
| 2035 | 8.99 | 12 | -5.16 | 4.83 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.37typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.4k | 4.8k | 4.1k | 4.3k – 4.6k |
| 2028 | 4.5k | 5.2k | 3.9k | 4.2k – 4.8k |
| 2030 | 4.6k | 5.5k | 3.8k | 4.1k – 5.1k |
| 2035 | 4.8k | 6k | 3.7k | 3.8k – 5.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±630.87typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76.78 | 82.98 | 69.63 | 74.4 – 79.16 |
| 2028 | 79.94 | 90.68 | 67.55 | 74.03 – 85.86 |
| 2030 | 83.1 | 96.97 | 67.11 | 73.67 – 92.54 |
| 2035 | 91.01 | 110.61 | 68.38 | 72.13 – 109.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead74.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.48typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.71 | 19.99 | -3.38 | 6.07 – 11.35 |
| 2028 | -2.35 | 17.2 | -5 | -5 – 2.1 |
| 2030 | -5 | 20.23 | -5 | -5 – 0.99 |
| 2035 | -5 | 30.68 | -5 | -5 – 3.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.29typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed216.1m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 212.1m | 222.2m | 202.8m | 205.6m – 218.7m |
| 2028 | 214.8m | 224.9m | 205.4m | 198.9m – 230.7m |
| 2030 | 217.4m | 227.7m | 207.9m | 192.8m – 242.1m |
| 2035 | 224.1m | 234.7m | 214.2m | 177.6m – 270.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead218.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NAQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 66.57 | 2024 (-2.9) |
| 2028 | 69.89 | 2025 (-5) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 61.9766 + -1.5824·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NAQ?indicator= · API docs
