Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
NAQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, NAQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.788 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 67.06 | 2024 (-3.1) |
Latest observed-2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.46 | 1.9 | -6.83 | -3.39 – -1.53 |
| 2029 | -2.19 | 5.37 | -9.75 | -3.84 – -0.54 |
| 2031 | -1.92 | 7.84 | -11.68 | -4.07 – 0.22 |
| 2036 | -1.24 | 12.56 | -15.04 | -4.26 – 1.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.81· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.1T | 1.2T | 1T | 1.1T – 1.1T |
| 2029 | 1.2T | 1.4T | 1T | 1.1T – 1.3T |
| 2031 | 1.3T | 1.5T | 1.1T | 1.1T – 1.4T |
| 2036 | 1.5T | 1.9T | 1.2T | 1.2T – 1.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.56 | 6.67 | 2.72 | 4.13 – 4.98 |
| 2029 | 5.27 | 8.93 | 2.1 | 4.41 – 6.13 |
| 2031 | 5.98 | 10.7 | 1.89 | 4.71 – 7.25 |
| 2036 | 7.76 | 12 | 1.97 | 5.41 – 10.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.16· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.9k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5k | 5.5k | 4.6k | 4.9k – 5.2k |
| 2029 | 5.4k | 6.2k | 4.6k | 5k – 5.7k |
| 2031 | 5.7k | 6.8k | 4.7k | 5k – 6.3k |
| 2036 | 6.5k | 8.1k | 5.2k | 5.2k – 7.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 74.99 | 81.56 | 67.4 | 72.67 – 77.31 |
| 2029 | 77.17 | 88.56 | 64.03 | 71.46 – 82.88 |
| 2031 | 79.35 | 94.05 | 62.39 | 70.34 – 88.36 |
| 2036 | 84.8 | 105.59 | 60.81 | 67.21 – 102.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead74.59· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.33 | 20.32 | -4.51 | 5.54 – 11.12 |
| 2029 | 3.71 | 24.47 | -5 | -1.07 – 8.49 |
| 2031 | -0.91 | 25.9 | -5 | -5 – 5.11 |
| 2036 | -5 | 32.91 | -5 | -5 – 4.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.33· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed215.9m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 215.3m | 225.5m | 205.9m | 208.6m – 222m |
| 2029 | 218.9m | 229.2m | 209.3m | 202.7m – 235.1m |
| 2031 | 222.4m | 232.9m | 212.7m | 197.2m – 247.7m |
| 2036 | 231.3m | 242.3m | 221.2m | 183.4m – 279.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead218.4m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NAQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 69.74 | 2025 (-4.8) |
| 2029 | 66.28 | 2026 (-2.6) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 62.175 + -1.577·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NAQ?indicator= · API docs
