Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
New Caledonia: forward projections across 9 macro indicators, horizons 2017, 2019, 2021, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, New Caledonia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.898 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.1bn | 2024 (10.99) |
Latest observed11.69(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.53 | 15.63 | 6.1 | 9.63 – 11.42 |
| 2027 | 8.19 | 17.02 | 0.53 | 6.53 – 9.84 |
| 2029 | 5.85 | 17.26 | 0 | 3.75 – 7.95 |
| 2034 | 0.01 | 16.14 | 0 | 0 – 2.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.93· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.3bn | 9.6bn | 7.2bn | 8bn – 8.6bn |
| 2027 | 7.8bn | 10bn | 5.8bn | 7.1bn – 8.4bn |
| 2029 | 7.2bn | 10.1bn | 4.6bn | 6.3bn – 8.1bn |
| 2034 | 5.8bn | 9.9bn | 2.2bn | 4.3bn – 7.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-13.5(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -10 | 5.41 | -10 | -10 – -7.27 |
| 2027 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -5.07 |
| 2029 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -3.46 |
| 2034 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -0.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-10· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.2k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28.3k | 33k | 24.2k | 27.3k – 29.3k |
| 2027 | 25.9k | 34.1k | 18.9k | 23.7k – 28.1k |
| 2029 | 23.6k | 34.1k | 14.5k | 20.4k – 26.7k |
| 2034 | 17.7k | 32.5k | 4.8k | 13.1k – 22.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.7k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.67(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27.51 | 32.27 | 22.75 | 26.34 – 28.68 |
| 2027 | 25.18 | 33.43 | 16.94 | 22.71 – 27.65 |
| 2029 | 22.85 | 33.5 | 12.21 | 19.39 – 26.31 |
| 2034 | 17.03 | 32.08 | 1.98 | 12 – 22.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.71· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.58(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0.58 | 1.64 | -0.55 | 0.33 – 0.83 |
| 2019 | 0.59 | 2.43 | -1.37 | 0.14 – 1.05 |
| 2021 | 0.6 | 2.97 | -1.93 | -0 – 1.21 |
| 2026 | 0.63 | 3.98 | -2.96 | -0.27 – 1.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.39· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.12(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.38 | 24.63 | 18.56 | 20.57 – 22.18 |
| 2027 | 19.3 | 24.93 | 14.42 | 17.57 – 21.03 |
| 2029 | 17.22 | 24.49 | 10.92 | 14.8 – 19.63 |
| 2034 | 12.02 | 22.3 | 3.11 | 8.63 – 15.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed295.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 294.7k | 308.6k | 281.8k | 285.6k – 303.8k |
| 2028 | 297.7k | 311.7k | 284.6k | 275.6k – 319.7k |
| 2030 | 300.6k | 314.8k | 287.4k | 266.5k – 334.7k |
| 2035 | 308k | 322.6k | 294.5k | 244.1k – 371.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead296.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.79 | 12.46 | 9.12 | 10.36 – 11.22 |
| 2028 | 10.02 | 12.91 | 7.13 | 9.1 – 10.94 |
| 2030 | 9.25 | 12.99 | 5.52 | 7.94 – 10.56 |
| 2035 | 7.33 | 12.61 | 2.05 | 5.35 – 9.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.92· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NCL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2026 | 11bn | 2025 (11.17) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 21733619332.8001 + -963117224.9379·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.868 over 6 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | -0.14 | 2014 (10.6bn) |
| 2018 | 2.08 | 2015 (8.7bn) |
| 2019 | 2.09 | 2016 (8.7bn) |
| 2020 | 1.57 | 2017 (9.2bn) |
| 2021 | 0.73 | 2018 (9.9bn) |
| 2022 | 1.22 | 2019 (9.5bn) |
| 2023 | 1.24 | 2020 (9.5bn) |
| 2024 | 0.52 | 2021 (10.1bn) |
| 2025 | 1.04 | 2022 (9.6bn) |
| 2026 | 0.87 | 2023 (9.8bn) |
| 2027 | 2.3 | 2024 (8.5bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 12.282 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NCL?indicator= · API docs
