Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Niger: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Niger's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.808 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4bn | 2024 (-5.6) |
Latest observed-6.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.77 | 1.71 | -11.26 | -6.17 – -3.37 |
| 2029 | -2.12 | 9.12 | -13.35 | -4.51 – 0.28 |
| 2031 | 0.54 | 15.04 | -13.97 | -2.5 – 3.58 |
| 2036 | 7.17 | 27.68 | -13.34 | 1.84 – 12.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.29· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.81 | 21.52 | 10.87 | 14.75 – 16.88 |
| 2028 | 15.92 | 25.8 | 7.36 | 13.74 – 18.09 |
| 2030 | 16.02 | 28.78 | 4.97 | 12.92 – 19.13 |
| 2035 | 16.28 | 34.32 | 0.65 | 11.1 – 21.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14.07typical miss · 1 realized · 89% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 26.6bn | 28.4bn | 25bn | 25.8bn – 27.4bn |
| 2029 | 31bn | 34.1bn | 28.3bn | 28.7bn – 33.3bn |
| 2031 | 35.4bn | 39.4bn | 32bn | 31.4bn – 39.4bn |
| 2036 | 46.5bn | 52.1bn | 41.6bn | 36.8bn – 56.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.37 | 12 | -6.32 | 3.83 – 8.91 |
| 2029 | 5.75 | 12 | -10 | 1.25 – 10.26 |
| 2031 | 5.14 | 12 | -10 | -0.73 – 11.01 |
| 2036 | 3.6 | 12 | -10 | -4.7 – 11.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.85· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed775.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 861.24 | 906.45 | 822.05 | 834.54 – 887.94 |
| 2029 | 960.49 | 1k | 892.87 | 889.43 – 1k |
| 2031 | 1.1k | 1.2k | 972.45 | 939.41 – 1.2k |
| 2036 | 1.3k | 1.5k | 1.2k | 1k – 1.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead861.47· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 46.71 | 52.45 | 40.08 | 45.08 – 48.34 |
| 2029 | 49.12 | 59.06 | 37.65 | 45.23 – 53.01 |
| 2031 | 51.53 | 64.37 | 36.73 | 45.44 – 57.63 |
| 2036 | 57.57 | 75.72 | 36.63 | 45.56 – 69.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead46.26· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.63 | 22.94 | 10.31 | 15.4 – 17.86 |
| 2028 | 13.6 | 24.53 | 2.66 | 11.27 – 15.92 |
| 2030 | 10.56 | 24.68 | 0 | 7.56 – 13.57 |
| 2035 | 2.98 | 22.95 | 0 | 0 – 6.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.02typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.42 | 17.29 | -5 | 0.29 – 6.55 |
| 2029 | 10.21 | 34.24 | -5 | 4.4 – 16.03 |
| 2031 | 17.01 | 48.03 | -5 | 8.77 – 25.25 |
| 2036 | 34 | 50 | -5 | 18.84 – 49.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.2· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.35 | 24.51 | 13 | 17.17 – 19.52 |
| 2028 | 11.97 | 22.65 | 2.71 | 9.87 – 14.07 |
| 2030 | 5.59 | 19.38 | 0 | 3.17 – 8.01 |
| 2035 | 0 | 19.5 | 0 | 0 – 2.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.44typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 30.1m | 31.5m | 28.8m | 29.2m – 31m |
| 2029 | 32.6m | 34.2m | 31.2m | 30.2m – 35m |
| 2031 | 35.1m | 37.1m | 33.3m | 31.2m – 39.1m |
| 2036 | 41.4m | 44.2m | 38.8m | 32.8m – 50m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 14.63 | -5.72 | 1.5 – 4.5 |
| 2028 | 3.94 | 15 | -10 | 1.23 – 6.64 |
| 2030 | 4.87 | 15 | -10 | 1.23 – 8.51 |
| 2035 | 7.21 | 15 | -10 | 1.46 – 12.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.58typical miss · 1 realized · 171% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.33 | 0.72 | 0 | 0.25 – 0.41 |
| 2028 | 0.2 | 0.88 | 0 | 0.05 – 0.35 |
| 2030 | 0.07 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.28 |
| 2035 | 0 | 1.25 | 0 | 0 – 0.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.36· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NER · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 3.3bn | 2025 (-5) |
| 2029 | 4.6bn | 2026 (-6.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -2419939809.0947 + -1144705984.369·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.797 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -9.18 | 2024 (47.7) |
| 2028 | -9.54 | 2025 (45.4) |
| 2029 | -9.53 | 2026 (45.5) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -16.7113 + 0.1579·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.756 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.1 | 2023 (16.9bn) |
| 2027 | -0.45 | 2024 (19.7bn) |
| 2028 | -0.7 | 2025 (21.6bn) |
| 2029 | -1.11 | 2026 (24.8bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.0922 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.515 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 51.83 | 2026 (-6.1) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 66.9746 + 2.4826·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NER?indicator= · API docs
