Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Niger: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Niger's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.82 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.6bn | 2023 (-13.8) |
Latest observed-3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.63 | 3.37 | -8.64 | -3.9 – -1.37 |
| 2028 | -0.5 | 9.9 | -10.9 | -2.67 – 1.67 |
| 2030 | 1.63 | 15.06 | -11.79 | -1.24 – 4.5 |
| 2035 | 6.97 | 25.96 | -12.02 | 1.98 – 11.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.37typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.81 | 21.52 | 10.87 | 14.75 – 16.88 |
| 2028 | 15.92 | 25.8 | 7.36 | 13.74 – 18.09 |
| 2030 | 16.02 | 28.78 | 4.97 | 12.92 – 19.13 |
| 2035 | 16.28 | 34.32 | 0.65 | 11.1 – 21.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14.07typical miss · 1 realized · 89% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.1bn | 25bn | 21.4bn | 22.4bn – 23.8bn |
| 2028 | 26.7bn | 30bn | 23.8bn | 24.7bn – 28.6bn |
| 2030 | 30.2bn | 34.5bn | 26.5bn | 26.8bn – 33.7bn |
| 2035 | 39.2bn | 45.3bn | 33.9bn | 31bn – 47.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±275.8mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.57 | 12 | -4.53 | 5.92 – 11.23 |
| 2028 | 11.82 | 12 | -10 | 6.89 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 5.41 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.11 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.22· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.57typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed775.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 812.09 | 882.89 | 750.73 | 786.92 – 837.27 |
| 2028 | 903.42 | 1k | 797.14 | 836.58 – 970.25 |
| 2030 | 994.74 | 1.2k | 857.53 | 881.8 – 1.1k |
| 2035 | 1.2k | 1.4k | 1k | 969.34 – 1.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead795.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±38.43typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.36 | 53.08 | 40.75 | 45.72 – 49 |
| 2028 | 51.07 | 60.99 | 39.63 | 47.1 – 55.05 |
| 2030 | 54.79 | 67.59 | 40.01 | 48.43 – 61.14 |
| 2035 | 64.08 | 82.18 | 43.18 | 50.78 – 77.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.06typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.63 | 22.94 | 10.31 | 15.4 – 17.86 |
| 2028 | 13.6 | 24.53 | 2.66 | 11.27 – 15.92 |
| 2030 | 10.56 | 24.68 | 0 | 7.56 – 13.57 |
| 2035 | 2.98 | 22.95 | 0 | 0 – 6.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.02typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 7.91 | -5 | -5 – -2.06 |
| 2028 | -5 | 17.36 | -5 | -5 – 0.2 |
| 2030 | -5 | 23.87 | -5 | -5 – 1.8 |
| 2035 | -5 | 35.83 | -5 | -5 – 4.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.1typical miss · 1 realized · 163% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.35 | 24.51 | 13 | 17.17 – 19.52 |
| 2028 | 11.97 | 22.65 | 2.71 | 9.87 – 14.07 |
| 2030 | 5.59 | 19.38 | 0 | 3.17 – 8.01 |
| 2035 | 0 | 19.5 | 0 | 0 – 2.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.44typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.7m | 29m | 26.5m | 26.8m – 28.6m |
| 2028 | 28.7m | 30m | 27.4m | 26.5m – 30.8m |
| 2030 | 29.6m | 31m | 28.3m | 26.3m – 33m |
| 2035 | 32.1m | 33.6m | 30.7m | 25.4m – 38.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.5mtypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 14.63 | -5.72 | 1.5 – 4.5 |
| 2028 | 3.94 | 15 | -10 | 1.23 – 6.64 |
| 2030 | 4.87 | 15 | -10 | 1.23 – 8.51 |
| 2035 | 7.21 | 15 | -10 | 1.46 – 12.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.58typical miss · 1 realized · 171% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.33 | 0.72 | 0 | 0.25 – 0.41 |
| 2028 | 0.2 | 0.88 | 0 | 0.05 – 0.35 |
| 2030 | 0.07 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.28 |
| 2035 | 0 | 1.25 | 0 | 0 – 0.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.36· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NER · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 4.5bn | 2024 (-6.1) |
| 2028 | 1.9bn | 2025 (-3.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -1981423364.4653 + -1059698283.6777·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.792 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.66 | 2023 (51.4) |
| 2027 | -9.18 | 2024 (48.1) |
| 2028 | -9.59 | 2025 (45.5) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -16.7129 + 0.1566·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.756 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.1 | 2023 (16.9bn) |
| 2027 | -0.45 | 2024 (19.7bn) |
| 2028 | -0.7 | 2025 (21.6bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.0922 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.524 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.74 | 2025 (-3.7) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 68.3107 + 2.5867·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NER?indicator= · API docs
