Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Nigeria: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 1961, 1963, 1965, 1970, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Nigeria's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.761 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.63 | 2024 (39.3) |
Latest observed7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.82 | 11.61 | 0.03 | 4.55 – 7.1 |
| 2028 | 7.86 | 17.89 | -2.17 | 5.44 – 10.28 |
| 2030 | 9.9 | 22.85 | -3.05 | 6.47 – 13.34 |
| 2035 | 15 | 30 | -3.31 | 8.87 – 21.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.18typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.24(1960)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 8.96 – 9.53 |
| 1963 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 8.56 – 9.93 |
| 1965 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 8.19 – 10.29 |
| 1970 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 7.32 – 11.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed290.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 209.3bn | 513.5bn | 0 | 169.7bn – 248.8bn |
| 2028 | 21.5bn | 548.4bn | 0 | 0 – 85.2bn |
| 2030 | 0 | 680.3bn | 0 | 0 – 81bn |
| 2035 | 0 | 962.1bn | 0 | 0 – 114.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead358.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±177.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 46% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.75 | 11.14 | -0.79 | 3.61 – 5.89 |
| 2028 | 6.48 | 12 | -3.11 | 4.33 – 8.63 |
| 2030 | 8.21 | 12 | -4.17 | 5.17 – 11.25 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -5.5 | 6.71 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.55typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 846.55 | 2.2k | 0 | 667.74 – 1k |
| 2028 | 0 | 2.4k | 0 | 0 – 286.28 |
| 2030 | 0 | 3.1k | 0 | 0 – 369.61 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.4k | 0 | 0 – 522.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±747.46typical miss · 1 realized · 47% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.66 | 43.34 | 33.27 | 37.33 – 40 |
| 2028 | 43.79 | 51.88 | 34.45 | 40.44 – 47.14 |
| 2030 | 48.92 | 59.36 | 36.87 | 43.36 – 54.47 |
| 2035 | 61.74 | 76.51 | 44.69 | 48.93 – 74.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.06typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.92(1960)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 16.4 – 17.45 |
| 1963 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 15.67 – 18.18 |
| 1965 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 15 – 18.85 |
| 1970 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 13.41 – 20.44 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.96 | 31.13 | 3.86 | 14.76 – 21.17 |
| 2028 | 3.64 | 26.45 | -5 | -1.59 – 8.87 |
| 2030 | -5 | 24.44 | -5 | -5 – 1.93 |
| 2035 | -5 | 36.64 | -5 | -5 – 5.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.36typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed237.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 236.3m | 247.4m | 225.9m | 228.9m – 243.6m |
| 2028 | 241.6m | 253m | 231m | 223.7m – 259.5m |
| 2030 | 246.9m | 258.6m | 236.1m | 218.9m – 275m |
| 2035 | 260.3m | 272.6m | 248.9m | 206.3m – 314.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead246.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.3mtypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.91 | 8.93 | -3.36 | 1 – 2.82 |
| 2028 | 3.84 | 15 | -5.28 | 2.14 – 5.55 |
| 2030 | 5.78 | 15 | -6 | 3.36 – 8.21 |
| 2035 | 10.62 | 15 | -6.04 | 6.15 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.51typical miss · 1 realized · 45% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.4bn | 53bn | 35.8bn | 42.4bn – 46.4bn |
| 2028 | 47.7bn | 62.7bn | 32.7bn | 43.1bn – 52.3bn |
| 2030 | 51bn | 70.4bn | 31.7bn | 44bn – 58.1bn |
| 2035 | 59.3bn | 86.6bn | 32bn | 45.6bn – 73bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.81 | 9.76 | 3.86 | 6.25 – 7.37 |
| 2028 | 6.44 | 11.55 | 1.34 | 5.35 – 7.54 |
| 2030 | 6.26 | 12.86 | 0 | 4.75 – 7.78 |
| 2035 | 6.12 | 15.45 | 0 | 3.71 – 8.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.12· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.8bn | 56.6bn | 39bn | 45.7bn – 49.9bn |
| 2028 | 52bn | 67.3bn | 36.7bn | 47.2bn – 56.8bn |
| 2030 | 56.2bn | 75.9bn | 36.5bn | 48.7bn – 63.8bn |
| 2035 | 66.8bn | 94.7bn | 39bn | 51.9bn – 81.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead46.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 3.62 | 1.3 | 2.25 – 2.68 |
| 2028 | 1.26 | 3.26 | 0 | 0.89 – 1.62 |
| 2030 | 0.05 | 2.64 | 0 | 0 – 0.53 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.66 | 0 | 0 – 0.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.75· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NGA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 |
| 28.95 |
| 2025 (36.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -1.3297 + 0.8388·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.597 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 219.2bn | 2023 (36.3) |
| 2027 | 195.7bn | 2024 (39.3) |
| 2028 | 220.8bn | 2025 (36.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 503100429538.8438 + -7820709576.5383·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NGA?indicator= · API docs
