Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Nicaragua: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Nicaragua's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.743 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.9bn | 2023 (4.7) |
Latest observed6.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.55 | 22.16 | -1.06 | 8.01 – 13.09 |
| 2028 | 12.64 | 30 | -7.47 | 7.93 – 17.35 |
| 2030 | 14.74 | 30 | -11.22 | 8.26 – 21.22 |
| 2035 | 19.98 | 30 | -16.74 | 9.29 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.15typical miss · 1 realized · 65% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.5 | 49.03 | 34.97 | 39.76 – 43.24 |
| 2028 | 41.31 | 54.35 | 30 | 37.46 – 45.15 |
| 2030 | 41.12 | 57.95 | 26.52 | 35.42 – 46.81 |
| 2035 | 40.64 | 64.45 | 20 | 30.73 – 50.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.8· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.75typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.7bn | 25.8bn | 21.9bn | 23bn – 24.5bn |
| 2028 | 27.4bn | 31.1bn | 24.3bn | 25.4bn – 29.5bn |
| 2030 | 31.1bn | 35.8bn | 27.1bn | 27.6bn – 34.7bn |
| 2035 | 40.4bn | 47bn | 34.7bn | 32bn – 48.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.7bntypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.21 | 12 | -6.36 | 2.9 – 7.51 |
| 2028 | 5.86 | 12 | -10 | 1.73 – 9.99 |
| 2030 | 6.52 | 12 | -10 | 1.02 – 12 |
| 2035 | 8.16 | 12 | -10 | -0.18 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.41typical miss · 1 realized · 37% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.4k | 3.7k | 3.1k | 3.3k – 3.5k |
| 2028 | 3.8k | 4.3k | 3.4k | 3.5k – 4.1k |
| 2030 | 4.3k | 5k | 3.7k | 3.8k – 4.8k |
| 2035 | 5.5k | 6.4k | 4.7k | 4.3k – 6.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±373.74typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.06 | 42.08 | 26.97 | 33.42 – 36.7 |
| 2028 | 35.99 | 48.13 | 21.98 | 32.4 – 39.59 |
| 2030 | 36.92 | 52.6 | 18.83 | 31.55 – 42.28 |
| 2035 | 39.24 | 61.41 | 13.65 | 29.55 – 48.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.36typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.16 | 68.17 | 44.14 | 53.42 – 58.89 |
| 2028 | 58.76 | 79.56 | 37.95 | 52.75 – 64.76 |
| 2030 | 61.36 | 88.22 | 34.49 | 52.34 – 70.38 |
| 2035 | 67.86 | 105.84 | 29.87 | 51.18 – 84.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead54.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.64typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.41 | 8.25 | -5 | -0.13 – 2.95 |
| 2028 | -2.15 | 9.69 | -5 | -4.88 – 0.58 |
| 2030 | -5 | 10.28 | -5 | -5 – -1.21 |
| 2035 | -5 | 16.61 | -5 | -5 – 0.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.09typical miss · 1 realized · 60% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.31 | 31.94 | 19.56 | 23.96 – 26.66 |
| 2028 | 27.15 | 38.63 | 17.2 | 24.2 – 30.09 |
| 2030 | 28.99 | 43.81 | 16.14 | 24.55 – 33.42 |
| 2035 | 33.59 | 54.55 | 15.42 | 25.22 – 41.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.87typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7m | 7.3m | 6.7m | 6.8m – 7.2m |
| 2028 | 7.1m | 7.4m | 6.8m | 6.6m – 7.6m |
| 2030 | 7.2m | 7.5m | 6.9m | 6.4m – 8m |
| 2035 | 7.4m | 7.8m | 7.1m | 5.9m – 9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±175.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.66 | 14.3 | -4.32 | 2.27 – 5.05 |
| 2028 | 5.42 | 15 | -8.4 | 2.86 – 7.99 |
| 2030 | 7.19 | 15 | -10 | 3.64 – 10.74 |
| 2035 | 11.59 | 15 | -10 | 5.53 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.54· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.71typical miss · 1 realized · 59% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.2bn | 10.4bn | 7.9bn | 8.8bn – 9.5bn |
| 2028 | 11.3bn | 13.4bn | 9.2bn | 10.4bn – 12.2bn |
| 2030 | 13.4bn | 16.2bn | 10.7bn | 11.9bn – 15bn |
| 2035 | 18.8bn | 22.6bn | 14.9bn | 14.9bn – 22.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.72(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.39 | 6.69 | 4.09 | 5.11 – 5.68 |
| 2027 | 5 | 7.25 | 2.75 | 4.41 – 5.58 |
| 2029 | 4.8 | 7.71 | 1.9 | 3.97 – 5.63 |
| 2034 | 4.65 | 8.76 | 0.54 | 3.28 – 6.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.85· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.2bn | 10.4bn | 7.9bn | 8.8bn – 9.5bn |
| 2028 | 11.3bn | 13.4bn | 9.2bn | 10.4bn – 12.2bn |
| 2030 | 13.4bn | 16.2bn | 10.7bn | 11.9bn – 15bn |
| 2035 | 18.8bn | 22.6bn | 14.9bn | 14.9bn – 22.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.78 | 5.71 | 3.84 | 4.56 – 4.99 |
| 2028 | 4.25 | 5.86 | 2.63 | 3.8 – 4.7 |
| 2030 | 3.72 | 5.8 | 1.63 | 3.1 – 4.33 |
| 2035 | 2.39 | 5.34 | 0 | 1.56 – 3.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.68typical miss · 1 realized · 54% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NIC · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 11.5bn | 2024 (4.98) |
| 2028 | 11.5bn | 2025 (5.04) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 17534214011.0479 + -1206408277.0075·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.743 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.03 | 2025 (22.2bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -26.418 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.698 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.79 | 2025 (22.2bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 11.1136 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.64 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.03 | 2025 (22.2bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 93.2723 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.596 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.05 | 2025 (2.08) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 3.0544 + -0.001·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.509 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -366.5 | 2025 (5.04) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -2182.4787 + 360.3137·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NIC?indicator= · API docs
