Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Netherlands: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Netherlands's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.79 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.96 | 2023 (1.1T) |
Latest observed8.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.66 | 12.71 | 2.62 | 6.51 – 8.82 |
| 2028 | 7.79 | 16.54 | -0.95 | 5.63 – 9.95 |
| 2030 | 7.92 | 19.21 | -3.37 | 4.98 – 10.86 |
| 2035 | 8.24 | 24.21 | -7.72 | 3.67 – 12.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.64typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed80.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 80.31 | 92.84 | 69.45 | 77.24 – 83.39 |
| 2028 | 79.59 | 101.3 | 60.78 | 72.67 – 86.52 |
| 2030 | 78.88 | 106.9 | 54.59 | 68.56 – 89.19 |
| 2035 | 77.09 | 116.72 | 42.74 | 59.09 – 95.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead81.85· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.02typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4T | 1.5T | 1.3T | 1.4T – 1.4T |
| 2028 | 1.6T | 1.7T | 1.4T | 1.4T – 1.7T |
| 2030 | 1.7T | 2T | 1.5T | 1.5T – 1.9T |
| 2035 | 2.1T | 2.5T | 1.8T | 1.7T – 2.5T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.5T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±27.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.59 | 12 | -6.79 | 0.74 – 4.44 |
| 2028 | 4.22 | 12 | -10 | 0.89 – 7.55 |
| 2030 | 5.85 | 12 | -10 | 1.35 – 10.35 |
| 2035 | 9.93 | 12 | -10 | 2.63 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.97· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.09typical miss · 1 realized · 73% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76.8k | 83.1k | 71.3k | 74.4k – 79.2k |
| 2028 | 84.7k | 95.7k | 75.2k | 78.4k – 91k |
| 2030 | 92.6k | 106.8k | 80.3k | 82.1k – 103.1k |
| 2035 | 112.3k | 132.4k | 95k | 89k – 135.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead82.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.56(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.91 | 4.77 | 0.9 | 2.4 – 3.41 |
| 2029 | 2.12 | 5.36 | 0 | 1.22 – 3.02 |
| 2031 | 1.74 | 5.91 | 0 | 0.57 – 2.9 |
| 2036 | 1.43 | 7.34 | 0 | 0 – 3.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.68· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.13 | 48.73 | 36.66 | 41.58 – 44.68 |
| 2028 | 39.98 | 49.68 | 28.79 | 36.57 – 43.39 |
| 2030 | 36.83 | 49.36 | 22.38 | 31.96 – 41.71 |
| 2035 | 28.97 | 46.68 | 8.53 | 21.61 – 36.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.27typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69 | 82.03 | 55.96 | 65.9 – 72.09 |
| 2028 | 68.09 | 90.66 | 45.51 | 61.36 – 74.81 |
| 2030 | 67.17 | 96.32 | 38.03 | 57.34 – 77.01 |
| 2035 | 64.9 | 106.11 | 23.69 | 48.21 – 81.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead70.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.26typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.29 | 12.05 | -5 | 1.3 – 5.29 |
| 2028 | 3.09 | 18.25 | -5 | -0.41 – 6.6 |
| 2030 | 2.89 | 22.47 | -5 | -1.68 – 7.46 |
| 2035 | 2.4 | 30.07 | -5 | -4.12 – 8.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.54· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.39typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.19 | 11.91 | -5 | 1.2 – 5.17 |
| 2029 | 3.37 | 18.47 | -5 | -0.14 – 6.88 |
| 2031 | 3.43 | 22.93 | -5 | -1.16 – 8.03 |
| 2036 | 3.47 | 31.03 | -5 | -3.2 – 10.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.01· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.65 | 20.68 | 18.76 | 19.04 – 20.26 |
| 2028 | 19.28 | 21.07 | 17.72 | 17.85 – 20.7 |
| 2030 | 18.9 | 21.21 | 16.9 | 16.75 – 21.05 |
| 2035 | 17.96 | 21.23 | 15.13 | 14.24 – 21.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.05typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18m | 18.9m | 17.3m | 17.5m – 18.6m |
| 2028 | 18.2m | 19m | 17.4m | 16.8m – 19.5m |
| 2030 | 18.3m | 19.1m | 17.5m | 16.2m – 20.3m |
| 2035 | 18.5m | 19.4m | 17.7m | 14.7m – 22.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±82.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.77 | 13.52 | -7.03 | 0.28 – 3.27 |
| 2028 | 2.16 | 15 | -10 | -0.49 – 4.81 |
| 2030 | 2.54 | 15 | -10 | -0.94 – 6.03 |
| 2035 | 3.5 | 15 | -10 | -1.7 – 8.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.93typical miss · 1 realized · 117% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.4bn | 41.7bn | 25.1bn | 31.6bn – 35.2bn |
| 2028 | 37.1bn | 51.5bn | 22.7bn | 33.1bn – 41.1bn |
| 2030 | 40.8bn | 59.4bn | 22.2bn | 34.7bn – 46.9bn |
| 2035 | 50bn | 76.3bn | 23.7bn | 38bn – 62bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.89 | 1.12 | 0.66 | 0.84 – 0.94 |
| 2028 | 0.75 | 1.15 | 0.35 | 0.64 – 0.86 |
| 2030 | 0.69 | 1.2 | 0.17 | 0.53 – 0.84 |
| 2035 | 0.63 | 1.36 | 0 | 0.36 – 0.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.32typical miss · 1 realized · 32% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed118.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 129.1bn | 152.4bn | 105.8bn | 123.5bn – 134.7bn |
| 2028 | 157.4bn | 197.7bn | 117bn | 143.6bn – 171.1bn |
| 2030 | 185.6bn | 237.7bn | 133.6bn | 162.8bn – 208.4bn |
| 2035 | 256.3bn | 329.9bn | 182.7bn | 203.1bn – 309.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead126.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.84 | 4.56 | 3.12 | 3.67 – 4.01 |
| 2028 | 3.77 | 5.01 | 2.52 | 3.4 – 4.14 |
| 2030 | 3.7 | 5.31 | 2.09 | 3.15 – 4.24 |
| 2035 | 3.52 | 5.79 | 1.24 | 2.61 – 4.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.97· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.16typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NLD · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 9.47 | 2024 (1.2T) |
| 2028 | 10.25 | 2025 (1.3T) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 1.5029 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.789 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 886.7bn | 2025 (7.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 105569122909.5969 + 102777919019.458·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.703 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53 | 2025 (3.87) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 34.8224 + 4.6931·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.573 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.98 | 2025 (44.7) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.1798 + 0.085·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NLD?indicator= · API docs
