Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
NMQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, NMQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.918 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 146.79 | 2024 (33.5T) |
Latest observed-3.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.47 | -2.67 | -4.26 | -3.68 – -3.25 |
| 2029 | -3.8 | -2.42 | -5.17 | -4.26 – -3.33 |
| 2031 | -4.13 | -2.35 | -5.9 | -4.82 – -3.43 |
| 2036 | -4.95 | -2.44 | -7.47 | -6.26 – -3.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.51typical miss · 20 realized · 46% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.1T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.5T | 40.7T | 36.7T | 37.3T – 39.7T |
| 2029 | 42.2T | 45.9T | 38.9T | 39T – 45.3T |
| 2031 | 45.8T | 50.5T | 41.6T | 40.6T – 51T |
| 2036 | 54.8T | 61.5T | 48.9T | 43.4T – 66.1T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.9T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.9Ttypical miss · 20 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.88 | 4.62 | -0.49 | 1.39 – 2.37 |
| 2029 | 1.15 | 5.9 | -2.97 | 0.3 – 1.99 |
| 2031 | 0.41 | 6.54 | -4.91 | -0.69 – 1.51 |
| 2036 | -1.43 | 7.24 | -8.95 | -3.11 – 0.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.85· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.61typical miss · 20 realized · 156% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.1k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 73.5k | 77.8k | 69.7k | 71.2k – 75.8k |
| 2029 | 79.6k | 87.1k | 73.1k | 73.7k – 85.5k |
| 2031 | 85.7k | 95.4k | 77.3k | 76k – 95.5k |
| 2036 | 101k | 114.8k | 89.1k | 80.1k – 122k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead74.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.2ktypical miss · 20 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed120.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 122.64 | 137.8 | 105.15 | 118.34 – 126.93 |
| 2029 | 126.32 | 152.57 | 96.02 | 116.21 – 136.42 |
| 2031 | 129.99 | 163.89 | 90.88 | 114.38 – 145.61 |
| 2036 | 139.19 | 187.13 | 83.87 | 109.54 – 168.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead121.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±12.1typical miss · 20 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.44 | 7.97 | -1.42 | 2.38 – 4.5 |
| 2029 | 4 | 11.85 | -4.41 | 2.07 – 5.93 |
| 2031 | 4.56 | 14.7 | -5 | 1.95 – 7.17 |
| 2036 | 5.96 | 20.3 | -5 | 1.83 – 10.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.73typical miss · 20 realized · 126% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed522.1m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 520.8m | 545.4m | 498m | 504.7m – 537m |
| 2029 | 523.1m | 547.8m | 500.1m | 484.4m – 561.8m |
| 2031 | 525.4m | 550.2m | 502.3m | 465.7m – 585m |
| 2036 | 531m | 556.1m | 507.7m | 420.9m – 641.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead525.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11mtypical miss · 20 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NMQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 152.43 | 2025 (35T) |
| 2029 | 160.19 | 2026 (37.1T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 22.6386 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.895 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 30.4T | 2024 (117.6) |
| 2028 | 30.9T | 2025 (119.6) |
| 2029 | 31.2T | 2026 (120.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -633473206852.9805 + 263670189801.6161·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.594 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.59 | 2026 (37.1T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 8.2343 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.545 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.48 | 2026 (120.8) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -5.1043 + 0.0217·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NMQ?indicator= · API docs
