Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Norway: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Norway's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.672 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 395.6bn | 2025 (14.2) |
Latest observed20.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.05 | 30 | -0.21 | 12.48 – 19.63 |
| 2028 | 19.75 | 30 | -8.41 | 13.06 – 26.45 |
| 2030 | 23.46 | 30 | -12.9 | 14.16 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -21.41 | 14.71 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.8· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.65typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.36 | 61.4 | 35.19 | 44.6 – 50.12 |
| 2028 | 51.33 | 75.65 | 30.26 | 45.4 – 57.27 |
| 2030 | 55.31 | 86.69 | 28.1 | 46.4 – 64.22 |
| 2035 | 65.24 | 109.63 | 26.77 | 48.46 – 82.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.39typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed530.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 519.3bn | 686.9bn | 374bn | 491bn – 547.5bn |
| 2028 | 501bn | 791.3bn | 249.5bn | 442.4bn – 559.6bn |
| 2030 | 482.8bn | 857.5bn | 158bn | 399.5bn – 566bn |
| 2035 | 437.1bn | 967.1bn | 0 | 304.1bn – 570.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead676.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±132.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.35 | 7.59 | -4.07 | 0.28 – 2.41 |
| 2028 | 1.81 | 12 | -7.57 | -0.08 – 3.7 |
| 2030 | 2.27 | 12 | -9.84 | -0.24 – 4.78 |
| 2035 | 3.42 | 12 | -10 | -0.42 – 7.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.15typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed94.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92k | 123.1k | 65.1k | 86.8k – 97.2k |
| 2028 | 87.3k | 141.1k | 40.7k | 76.7k – 97.9k |
| 2030 | 82.7k | 152.2k | 22.5k | 67.8k – 97.6k |
| 2035 | 71.1k | 169.3k | 0 | 48k – 94.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead118.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±23.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.65 | 64.44 | 45.5 | 53.4 – 57.89 |
| 2028 | 58.94 | 74.18 | 41.36 | 53.77 – 64.11 |
| 2030 | 62.23 | 81.9 | 39.54 | 54.23 – 70.24 |
| 2035 | 70.47 | 98.28 | 38.37 | 54.91 – 86.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±15.65typical miss · 1 realized · 39% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.87 | 39.38 | 28.35 | 32.48 – 35.25 |
| 2028 | 34.24 | 43.79 | 24.69 | 31.13 – 37.34 |
| 2030 | 34.61 | 46.94 | 22.29 | 29.96 – 39.27 |
| 2035 | 35.54 | 52.98 | 18.11 | 27.19 – 43.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.04typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.18 | 6.68 | -0.58 | 2.35 – 4 |
| 2028 | 2.98 | 9.04 | -3.52 | 1.49 – 4.47 |
| 2030 | 2.78 | 10.61 | -5 | 0.82 – 4.74 |
| 2035 | 2.29 | 13.36 | -5 | -0.53 – 5.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.02typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.82 | 30.01 | 18.46 | 22.56 – 25.09 |
| 2028 | 24.62 | 35.33 | 15.34 | 21.91 – 27.33 |
| 2030 | 25.41 | 39.24 | 13.43 | 21.4 – 29.42 |
| 2035 | 27.4 | 46.95 | 10.45 | 20.22 – 34.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.58typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.6m | 5.9m | 5.3m | 5.4m – 5.8m |
| 2028 | 5.6m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5.2m – 6.1m |
| 2030 | 5.7m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5m – 6.3m |
| 2035 | 5.8m | 6.1m | 5.5m | 4.6m – 7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±62.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.14 | 6.2 | -2.65 | 0.49 – 1.79 |
| 2028 | 1.3 | 10.06 | -5.27 | 0.14 – 2.46 |
| 2030 | 1.46 | 12.76 | -7.03 | -0.07 – 2.99 |
| 2035 | 1.85 | 15 | -10 | -0.45 – 4.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.06typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.5bn | 102bn | 75bn | 85bn – 92bn |
| 2028 | 95.6bn | 119bn | 72.3bn | 87.5bn – 103.8bn |
| 2030 | 102.8bn | 132.9bn | 72.6bn | 89.9bn – 115.6bn |
| 2035 | 120.6bn | 163.2bn | 77.9bn | 94.8bn – 146.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead88.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.51 | 6.21 | 2.81 | 4.18 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 4.68 | 7.63 | 1.73 | 4.01 – 5.36 |
| 2030 | 4.77 | 8.57 | 0.96 | 3.8 – 5.73 |
| 2035 | 4.84 | 10.22 | 0 | 3.24 – 6.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.3· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.5bn | 102bn | 75bn | 85bn – 92bn |
| 2028 | 95.6bn | 119bn | 72.3bn | 87.5bn – 103.8bn |
| 2030 | 102.8bn | 132.9bn | 72.6bn | 89.9bn – 115.6bn |
| 2035 | 120.6bn | 163.2bn | 77.9bn | 94.8bn – 146.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead88.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.65 | 5.88 | 3.42 | 4.38 – 4.91 |
| 2028 | 4.67 | 6.8 | 2.53 | 4.12 – 5.22 |
| 2030 | 4.68 | 7.44 | 1.93 | 3.89 – 5.48 |
| 2035 | 4.73 | 8.62 | 0.84 | 3.38 – 6.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.05typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NOR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 153290844300.6247 + 17062693800.4953·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.655 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.52 | 2025 (530.8bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 0.8424 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.592 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.32 | 2025 (4.64) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 9.285 + -1.5026·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.57 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.13 | 2025 (530.8bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 4.1141 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NOR?indicator= · API docs
