Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Nepal: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Nepal's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.529 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 45.59 | 2026 (3.1) |
Latest observed6.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.06 | 20.64 | -2.52 | 6.55 – 11.57 |
| 2029 | 13.39 | 30 | -6.67 | 8.65 – 18.12 |
| 2031 | 17.71 | 30 | -8.18 | 11.01 – 24.41 |
| 2036 | 28.52 | 30 | -8.1 | 16.48 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.56· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.92 | 11.19 | 6.96 | 8.46 – 9.39 |
| 2028 | 9.12 | 13.05 | 5.71 | 8.12 – 10.12 |
| 2030 | 9.31 | 14.38 | 4.92 | 7.84 – 10.78 |
| 2035 | 9.8 | 16.97 | 3.58 | 7.2 – 12.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.95· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.33typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 47.3bn | 50.9bn | 44.1bn | 45.8bn – 48.7bn |
| 2029 | 50.8bn | 57.2bn | 45.3bn | 47bn – 54.5bn |
| 2031 | 54.3bn | 62.5bn | 47.2bn | 48.1bn – 60.5bn |
| 2036 | 63.1bn | 74.7bn | 53bn | 50bn – 76.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.72 | 6.79 | -0.8 | 2 – 3.44 |
| 2029 | 2.06 | 9.11 | -4.04 | 0.79 – 3.33 |
| 2031 | 1.4 | 10.49 | -6.48 | -0.23 – 3.03 |
| 2036 | -0.25 | 12 | -10 | -2.56 – 2.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.65· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.6k | 1.7k | 1.5k | 1.5k – 1.6k |
| 2029 | 1.7k | 1.9k | 1.5k | 1.6k – 1.8k |
| 2031 | 1.8k | 2.1k | 1.6k | 1.6k – 2k |
| 2036 | 2.1k | 2.5k | 1.8k | 1.7k – 2.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 52.16 | 57.84 | 45.6 | 50.45 – 53.87 |
| 2029 | 57.28 | 67.12 | 45.93 | 53.02 – 61.54 |
| 2031 | 62.4 | 75.1 | 47.74 | 55.32 – 69.48 |
| 2036 | 75.2 | 93.17 | 54.47 | 59.6 – 90.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.69 | 41.64 | 23.74 | 30.8 – 34.58 |
| 2028 | 30.62 | 46.11 | 15.13 | 26.78 – 34.46 |
| 2030 | 28.55 | 48.55 | 8.55 | 23.2 – 33.9 |
| 2035 | 23.38 | 51.66 | 0 | 15.31 – 31.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.43typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.52 | 7.87 | -1.13 | 2.5 – 4.54 |
| 2029 | 4.15 | 11.67 | -3.91 | 2.28 – 6.02 |
| 2031 | 4.77 | 14.49 | -5 | 2.24 – 7.31 |
| 2036 | 6.34 | 20.07 | -5 | 2.28 – 10.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.72· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.33 | 26.17 | 19 | 21.42 – 23.23 |
| 2028 | 19.18 | 25.84 | 13.41 | 17.31 – 21.05 |
| 2030 | 16.03 | 24.63 | 8.58 | 13.52 – 18.54 |
| 2035 | 8.16 | 20.31 | 0 | 5.11 – 11.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.33· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.5typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 29.6m | 31m | 28.3m | 28.7m – 30.5m |
| 2029 | 29.6m | 31m | 28.3m | 27.4m – 31.8m |
| 2031 | 29.6m | 31m | 28.3m | 26.3m – 33m |
| 2036 | 29.6m | 31m | 28.3m | 23.5m – 35.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.57 | 10.96 | -0.22 | 3.7 – 5.44 |
| 2028 | 5.7 | 15 | -2.61 | 4.04 – 7.36 |
| 2030 | 6.82 | 15 | -3.9 | 4.49 – 9.16 |
| 2035 | 9.64 | 15 | -5.52 | 5.57 – 13.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.31typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.2bn | 26.5bn | 17.9bn | 21.2bn – 23.3bn |
| 2028 | 27.8bn | 35.2bn | 20.3bn | 25.3bn – 30.2bn |
| 2030 | 33.3bn | 42.9bn | 23.7bn | 29.2bn – 37.4bn |
| 2035 | 47.1bn | 60.8bn | 33.5bn | 37.4bn – 56.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.97(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.96 | 18.16 | 5.76 | 10.82 – 13.1 |
| 2027 | 10.75 | 21.49 | 0.02 | 8.59 – 12.91 |
| 2029 | 10.16 | 24.02 | 0 | 7.23 – 13.1 |
| 2034 | 9.69 | 29.29 | 0 | 5.14 – 14.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.2· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.5bn | 28bn | 19bn | 22.4bn – 24.6bn |
| 2028 | 29.4bn | 37.1bn | 21.6bn | 26.8bn – 32bn |
| 2030 | 35.2bn | 45.3bn | 25.2bn | 30.9bn – 39.6bn |
| 2035 | 49.9bn | 64.1bn | 35.7bn | 39.5bn – 60.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.94 | 11.14 | 8.75 | 9.6 – 10.28 |
| 2028 | 8.9 | 10.97 | 6.82 | 8.15 – 9.64 |
| 2030 | 7.85 | 10.52 | 5.17 | 6.81 – 8.89 |
| 2035 | 5.23 | 9.02 | 1.45 | 3.82 – 6.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.55· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NPL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 51.0083 + -1.7473·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NPL?indicator= · API docs
