Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Nepal: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Nepal's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.59 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.5bn | 2023 (47) |
Latest observed13.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.32 | 19.89 | -3.24 | 5.83 – 10.82 |
| 2028 | 11.77 | 30 | -8.26 | 7.12 – 16.42 |
| 2030 | 15.22 | 30 | -10.64 | 8.72 – 21.71 |
| 2035 | 23.84 | 30 | -12.74 | 12.56 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.28· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.58typical miss · 1 realized · 40% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.92 | 11.19 | 6.96 | 8.46 – 9.39 |
| 2028 | 9.12 | 13.05 | 5.71 | 8.12 – 10.12 |
| 2030 | 9.31 | 14.38 | 4.92 | 7.84 – 10.78 |
| 2035 | 9.8 | 16.97 | 3.58 | 7.2 – 12.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.95· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.33typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.7bn | 50.3bn | 43.7bn | 45.3bn – 48.2bn |
| 2028 | 50.1bn | 56.2bn | 44.7bn | 46.4bn – 53.8bn |
| 2030 | 53.4bn | 61.4bn | 46.5bn | 47.4bn – 59.5bn |
| 2035 | 61.8bn | 73bn | 52bn | 49bn – 74.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 12 | -0.91 | 4.1 – 6.7 |
| 2028 | 7.5 | 12 | -3.42 | 5.04 – 9.96 |
| 2030 | 9.6 | 12 | -4.5 | 6.12 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -7.95 | 6.24 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.8typical miss · 1 realized · 50% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6k | 1.7k | 1.5k | 1.5k – 1.6k |
| 2028 | 1.7k | 1.9k | 1.5k | 1.6k – 1.8k |
| 2030 | 1.8k | 2.1k | 1.6k | 1.6k – 2k |
| 2035 | 2.1k | 2.4k | 1.7k | 1.6k – 2.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±35.77typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.23 | 56.19 | 43.37 | 48.51 – 51.95 |
| 2028 | 55.9 | 66.21 | 44 | 51.63 – 60.17 |
| 2030 | 61.57 | 74.88 | 46.21 | 54.58 – 68.56 |
| 2035 | 75.73 | 94.56 | 54.01 | 60.02 – 91.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.83typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.69 | 41.64 | 23.74 | 30.8 – 34.58 |
| 2028 | 30.62 | 46.11 | 15.13 | 26.78 – 34.46 |
| 2030 | 28.55 | 48.55 | 8.55 | 23.2 – 33.9 |
| 2035 | 23.38 | 51.66 | 0 | 15.31 – 31.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.43typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.05 | 6.36 | -2.58 | 1.06 – 3.04 |
| 2028 | -0.8 | 6.68 | -5 | -2.5 – 0.91 |
| 2030 | -3.64 | 6.01 | -5 | -5 – -1.21 |
| 2035 | -5 | 8.65 | -5 | -5 – -1.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.05typical miss · 1 realized · 34% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.33 | 26.17 | 19 | 21.42 – 23.23 |
| 2028 | 19.18 | 25.84 | 13.41 | 17.31 – 21.05 |
| 2030 | 16.03 | 24.63 | 8.58 | 13.52 – 18.54 |
| 2035 | 8.16 | 20.31 | 0 | 5.11 – 11.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.33· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.5typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.6m | 31m | 28.3m | 28.7m – 30.5m |
| 2028 | 29.6m | 31m | 28.3m | 27.4m – 31.8m |
| 2030 | 29.5m | 30.9m | 28.2m | 26.2m – 32.9m |
| 2035 | 29.4m | 30.8m | 28.1m | 23.3m – 35.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.57 | 10.96 | -0.22 | 3.7 – 5.44 |
| 2028 | 5.7 | 15 | -2.61 | 4.04 – 7.36 |
| 2030 | 6.82 | 15 | -3.9 | 4.49 – 9.16 |
| 2035 | 9.64 | 15 | -5.52 | 5.57 – 13.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.31typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.2bn | 26.5bn | 17.9bn | 21.2bn – 23.3bn |
| 2028 | 27.8bn | 35.2bn | 20.3bn | 25.3bn – 30.2bn |
| 2030 | 33.3bn | 42.9bn | 23.7bn | 29.2bn – 37.4bn |
| 2035 | 47.1bn | 60.8bn | 33.5bn | 37.4bn – 56.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.83 | 19.98 | 7.69 | 12.67 – 14.99 |
| 2028 | 11.82 | 22.47 | 1.18 | 9.63 – 14.02 |
| 2030 | 10.84 | 24.58 | 0 | 7.87 – 13.81 |
| 2035 | 10.05 | 29.48 | 0 | 5.47 – 14.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.34· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.56typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.5bn | 28bn | 19bn | 22.4bn – 24.6bn |
| 2028 | 29.4bn | 37.1bn | 21.6bn | 26.8bn – 32bn |
| 2030 | 35.2bn | 45.3bn | 25.2bn | 30.9bn – 39.6bn |
| 2035 | 49.9bn | 64.1bn | 35.7bn | 39.5bn – 60.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.94 | 11.14 | 8.75 | 9.6 – 10.28 |
| 2028 | 8.9 | 10.97 | 6.82 | 8.15 – 9.64 |
| 2030 | 7.85 | 10.52 | 5.17 | 6.81 – 8.89 |
| 2035 | 5.23 | 9.02 | 1.45 | 3.82 – 6.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.55· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NPL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 16.8bn | 2024 (47.9) |
| 2028 | 17.2bn | 2025 (47.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 55927574723.3752 + -817585384.7616·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.525 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.71 | 2023 (7.12) |
| 2027 | 42.69 | 2024 (4.69) |
| 2028 | 46.01 | 2025 (2.65) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 50.3563 + -1.6363·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NPL?indicator= · API docs
