Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Naoero: forward projections across 9 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Naoero's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.914 over 17 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -27.69 | 2023 (161.5m) |
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.29 | 7.86 | -3.27 | 1.12 – 3.47 |
| 2028 | 1.48 | 11.13 | -8.16 | -0.56 – 3.52 |
| 2030 | 0.67 | 13.12 | -11.78 | -1.95 – 3.29 |
| 2035 | -1.36 | 16.25 | -18.97 | -5.17 – 2.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.34· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.09typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.95 | 82.89 | 43.81 | 57.97 – 65.94 |
| 2028 | 62.33 | 98.6 | 30.9 | 54.16 – 70.51 |
| 2030 | 62.71 | 109.53 | 22.13 | 51.01 – 74.42 |
| 2035 | 63.66 | 129.87 | 6.27 | 44.01 – 83.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead62.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.89typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed176m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 177.3m | 211.1m | 148.1m | 170.5m – 184.2m |
| 2028 | 182.8m | 241.3m | 132.1m | 167.1m – 198.5m |
| 2030 | 188.3m | 263.8m | 122.9m | 164.2m – 212.3m |
| 2035 | 202m | 308.7m | 109.5m | 157m – 247m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead205.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±18.7mtypical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.84 | 12 | -5.45 | 1.2 – 4.48 |
| 2028 | 4.25 | 12 | -10 | 1.28 – 7.22 |
| 2030 | 5.66 | 12 | -10 | 1.64 – 9.68 |
| 2035 | 9.19 | 12 | -10 | 2.67 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.74typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.7k | 17.6k | 12.2k | 14.1k – 15.3k |
| 2028 | 15k | 20k | 10.7k | 13.7k – 16.3k |
| 2030 | 15.3k | 21.7k | 9.8k | 13.3k – 17.3k |
| 2035 | 16.1k | 25.2k | 8.3k | 12.5k – 19.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.04 | 19.48 | 0 | 0.46 – 5.62 |
| 2028 | 0 | 28.47 | 0 | 0 – 4.43 |
| 2030 | 0 | 36.75 | 0 | 0 – 5.73 |
| 2035 | 0 | 51.97 | 0 | 0 – 8.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.44typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed103.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105.96 | 117.74 | 94.18 | 102.46 – 109.46 |
| 2028 | 110.53 | 130.93 | 90.13 | 102.1 – 118.96 |
| 2030 | 115.1 | 141.44 | 88.76 | 101.86 – 128.34 |
| 2035 | 126.52 | 150 | 89.28 | 100.28 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead100.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.59typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.12(2012)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.32 | 10.12 | -1.89 | 2.97 – 5.67 |
| 2028 | -0.16 | 9.88 | -5 | -2.43 – 2.11 |
| 2030 | -4.64 | 8.33 | -5 | -5 – -1.39 |
| 2035 | -5 | 13.34 | -5 | -5 – -0.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.38typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12k | 12.6k | 11.5k | 11.6k – 12.4k |
| 2028 | 12.1k | 12.7k | 11.6k | 11.2k – 13k |
| 2030 | 12.2k | 12.8k | 11.6k | 10.8k – 13.6k |
| 2035 | 12.4k | 13k | 11.8k | 9.8k – 15k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.22typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NRU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | -39.9 | 2024 (167.8m) |
| 2028 | -55.79 | 2025 (176m) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 285.1902 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.905 over 16 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 158.8m | 2025 (12.2) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 163388708.505 + -378620.9066·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.809 over 18 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -11.78 | 2023 (161.5m) |
| 2027 | -14.37 | 2024 (167.8m) |
| 2028 | -17.75 | 2025 (176m) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 54.6898 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.679 over 15 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.65 | 2024 (16.5) |
| 2027 | -0.89 | 2025 (12.2) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -1.582 + 0.0568·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.606 over 21 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.83 | 2024 (1.45) |
| 2027 | 5.57 | 2025 (2.14) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 6.3846 + -0.3805·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NRU?indicator= · API docs
