Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Naoero: forward projections across 9 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Naoero's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.913 over 18 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -31.67 | 2024 (167.8m) |
Latest observed2.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.17 | 7.42 | -3.09 | 1.06 – 3.28 |
| 2029 | 1.91 | 11.01 | -7.19 | -0.04 – 3.86 |
| 2031 | 1.65 | 13.4 | -10.1 | -0.88 – 4.17 |
| 2036 | 0.99 | 17.61 | -15.63 | -2.56 – 4.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.45· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.95 | 82.89 | 43.81 | 57.97 – 65.94 |
| 2028 | 62.33 | 98.6 | 30.9 | 54.16 – 70.51 |
| 2030 | 62.71 | 109.53 | 22.13 | 51.01 – 74.42 |
| 2035 | 63.66 | 129.87 | 6.27 | 44.01 – 83.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead62.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.89typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed176m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 204.3m | 237.5m | 175.6m | 197.1m – 211.5m |
| 2029 | 225.2m | 282.7m | 175.4m | 207.6m – 242.9m |
| 2031 | 246.1m | 320.3m | 181.9m | 217.6m – 274.6m |
| 2036 | 298.4m | 403.3m | 207.5m | 236.5m – 360.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead205.4m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.09 | 9.33 | -4.18 | 0.85 – 3.33 |
| 2029 | 2.07 | 12 | -8.8 | -0.12 – 4.25 |
| 2031 | 2.04 | 12 | -10 | -0.82 – 4.9 |
| 2036 | 1.98 | 12 | -10 | -2.15 – 6.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.66· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16.6k | 19.4k | 14.2k | 16k – 17.2k |
| 2029 | 18.2k | 23k | 14k | 16.7k – 19.6k |
| 2031 | 19.7k | 25.9k | 14.3k | 17.3k – 22k |
| 2036 | 23.4k | 32.2k | 15.8k | 18.6k – 28.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.6k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.74 | 21.79 | 0 | 2.04 – 7.44 |
| 2029 | 0 | 29.53 | 0 | 0 – 4.59 |
| 2031 | 0 | 38.12 | 0 | 0 – 5.94 |
| 2036 | 0 | 53.91 | 0 | 0 – 8.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.7· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed103.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105.96 | 117.74 | 94.18 | 102.46 – 109.46 |
| 2028 | 110.53 | 130.93 | 90.13 | 102.1 – 118.96 |
| 2030 | 115.1 | 141.44 | 88.76 | 101.86 – 128.34 |
| 2035 | 126.52 | 150 | 89.28 | 100.28 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead100.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.59typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.12(2012)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.4 | 11.34 | -0.97 | 3.99 – 6.8 |
| 2029 | 4.56 | 14.86 | -5 | 2.06 – 7.06 |
| 2031 | 3.72 | 17.01 | -5 | 0.47 – 6.96 |
| 2036 | 1.62 | 20.42 | -5 | -2.81 – 6.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12k | 12.5k | 11.4k | 11.6k – 12.3k |
| 2029 | 11.9k | 12.5k | 11.4k | 11.1k – 12.8k |
| 2031 | 11.9k | 12.5k | 11.4k | 10.6k – 13.3k |
| 2036 | 11.8k | 12.4k | 11.3k | 9.4k – 14.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.1k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/NRU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | -46.92 | 2025 (176m) |
| 2029 | -83.99 | 2026 (196m) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 280.0439 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.899 over 17 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 163.3m | 2026 (12.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 168410969.2948 + -403919.2617·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.804 over 19 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -11.77 | 2024 (167.8m) |
| 2028 | -14.95 | 2025 (176m) |
| 2029 | -22.68 | 2026 (196m) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 53.2127 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.678 over 16 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.38 | 2025 (14.6) |
| 2028 | -0.48 | 2026 (12.7) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -1.1803 + 0.0548·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.606 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.55 | 2025 (2.14) |
| 2028 | 5.57 | 2026 (2.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 6.3683 + -0.3802·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/NRU?indicator= · API docs
