Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
OAE: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, OAE's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.932 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.71 | 2026 (51.9) |
Latest observed6.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.66 | 8.25 | 5.07 | 6.23 – 7.09 |
| 2029 | 7.19 | 9.94 | 4.43 | 6.28 – 8.1 |
| 2031 | 7.72 | 11.27 | 4.16 | 6.37 – 9.06 |
| 2036 | 9.03 | 14.06 | 4 | 6.56 – 11.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.94typical miss · 20 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.3T | 12.2T | 10.4T | 10.9T – 11.6T |
| 2029 | 12.3T | 14T | 10.9T | 11.4T – 13.2T |
| 2031 | 13.4T | 15.5T | 11.6T | 11.9T – 14.9T |
| 2036 | 16.1T | 19T | 13.5T | 12.7T – 19.4T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.3T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1Ttypical miss · 20 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.52 | 5.39 | 0.04 | 2.01 – 3.04 |
| 2029 | 2.32 | 7.28 | -1.99 | 1.38 – 3.25 |
| 2031 | 2.11 | 8.52 | -3.45 | 0.87 – 3.34 |
| 2036 | 1.59 | 10.65 | -6.27 | -0.18 – 3.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.18typical miss · 20 realized · 165% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.5k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 62.6k | 68.2k | 57.7k | 60.7k – 64.5k |
| 2029 | 68.1k | 77.8k | 59.7k | 63k – 73.1k |
| 2031 | 73.6k | 86.1k | 62.7k | 65.2k – 81.9k |
| 2036 | 87.3k | 105k | 71.9k | 69.2k – 105.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead62.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.1ktypical miss · 20 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 53.15 | 57.18 | 48.5 | 51.5 – 54.8 |
| 2029 | 55.65 | 62.64 | 47.59 | 51.53 – 59.77 |
| 2031 | 58.15 | 67.17 | 47.75 | 51.55 – 64.75 |
| 2036 | 64.4 | 77.16 | 49.69 | 51.04 – 77.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.29typical miss · 20 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.64 | 6.3 | -1.27 | 1.79 – 3.5 |
| 2029 | 3.2 | 9.53 | -3.57 | 1.65 – 4.76 |
| 2031 | 3.76 | 11.93 | -4.99 | 1.65 – 5.87 |
| 2036 | 5.16 | 16.71 | -5 | 1.78 – 8.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.64typical miss · 20 realized · 122% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed179.1m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 178.8m | 187.3m | 171m | 173.3m – 184.4m |
| 2029 | 179.6m | 188.1m | 171.7m | 166.3m – 192.9m |
| 2031 | 180.4m | 188.9m | 172.5m | 159.9m – 200.9m |
| 2036 | 182.3m | 190.9m | 174.3m | 144.5m – 220.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead179.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.7mtypical miss · 20 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.52 | 4.29 | 2.75 | 3.35 – 3.7 |
| 2029 | 3.37 | 4.7 | 2.03 | 3 – 3.73 |
| 2031 | 3.21 | 4.94 | 1.49 | 2.69 – 3.74 |
| 2036 | 2.83 | 5.26 | 0.39 | 2 – 3.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.58· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.6typical miss · 20 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/OAE · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.0327 + 0.1685·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.91 over 42 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9T | 2026 (6.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 789008957234.0586 + 1280576637889.7363·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.883 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 50.12 | 2024 (9.3T) |
| 2028 | 51.53 | 2025 (9.9T) |
| 2029 | 54.12 | 2026 (10.8T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 25.1754 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.82 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.38 | 2025 (50.9) |
| 2028 | 3.29 | 2026 (51.9) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.925 + -0.0893·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.568 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.22 | 2026 (10.8T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 7.8158 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.525 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.83 | 2024 (9.3T) |
| 2028 | 1.64 | 2025 (9.9T) |
| 2029 | 1.3 | 2026 (10.8T) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 5.16 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/OAE?indicator= · API docs
