Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
OAE: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, OAE's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.92 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.61 | 2025 (51.2) |
Latest observed9.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.38 | 8.98 | 5.78 | 6.94 – 7.83 |
| 2028 | 8.15 | 10.92 | 5.38 | 7.19 – 9.1 |
| 2030 | 8.91 | 12.49 | 5.33 | 7.47 – 10.35 |
| 2035 | 10.82 | 15.88 | 5.76 | 8.06 – 13.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.42typical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.2T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.2T | 11.1T | 9.4T | 9.9T – 10.5T |
| 2028 | 10.9T | 12.5T | 9.5T | 10.1T – 11.7T |
| 2030 | 11.6T | 13.6T | 9.8T | 10.3T – 12.9T |
| 2035 | 13.3T | 16.2T | 10.8T | 10.5T – 16.1T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.7T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1Ttypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6 | 11.08 | -2.88 | 2.3 – 4.91 |
| 2028 | 4.68 | 12 | -6.54 | 2.3 – 7.06 |
| 2030 | 5.76 | 12 | -8.72 | 2.51 – 9.01 |
| 2035 | 8.46 | 12 | -10 | 3.17 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.6typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.7k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.9k | 62.4k | 52k | 55.1k – 58.6k |
| 2028 | 60.2k | 69.8k | 51.8k | 55.7k – 64.6k |
| 2030 | 63.5k | 75.9k | 52.7k | 56.3k – 70.7k |
| 2035 | 71.8k | 89.3k | 56.6k | 56.9k – 86.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead65.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.8ktypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.46 | 56.57 | 47.72 | 50.83 – 54.09 |
| 2028 | 54.98 | 62.1 | 46.77 | 50.91 – 59.05 |
| 2030 | 57.5 | 66.69 | 46.89 | 50.97 – 64.03 |
| 2035 | 63.79 | 76.79 | 48.8 | 50.56 – 77.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.76typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.06 | 6.04 | -2.2 | 1.15 – 2.98 |
| 2028 | 1.64 | 8.53 | -5 | 0.04 – 3.25 |
| 2030 | 1.22 | 10.11 | -5 | -0.84 – 3.29 |
| 2035 | 0.17 | 12.75 | -5 | -2.77 – 3.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.34typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed179.1m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 177.9m | 186.3m | 170.1m | 172.4m – 183.4m |
| 2028 | 178.5m | 186.9m | 170.6m | 165.3m – 191.7m |
| 2030 | 179m | 187.5m | 171.2m | 158.7m – 199.3m |
| 2035 | 180.4m | 188.9m | 172.5m | 143m – 217.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead179.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.39 | 4.15 | 2.62 | 3.21 – 3.56 |
| 2028 | 2.96 | 4.28 | 1.63 | 2.61 – 3.3 |
| 2030 | 2.53 | 4.24 | 0.82 | 2.06 – 2.99 |
| 2035 | 1.46 | 3.87 | 0 | 0.85 – 2.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.31typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-03 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/OAE · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.1071 + 0.1702·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.904 over 39 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8T | 2023 (5.4) |
| 2027 | 9.7T | 2024 (6.7) |
| 2028 | 10T | 2025 (7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1195634355436.641 + 1264163772819.818·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.871 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.07 | 2023 (9T) |
| 2027 | 50.08 | 2024 (9.4T) |
| 2028 | 51.56 | 2025 (9.9T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 25.4058 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.809 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.39 | 2024 (50.7) |
| 2027 | 3.34 | 2025 (51.2) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.9827 + -0.0907·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.576 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.78 | 2025 (9.9T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 7.9326 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.516 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.92 | 2023 (9T) |
| 2027 | 1.78 | 2024 (9.4T) |
| 2028 | 1.58 | 2025 (9.9T) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 5.1768 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/OAE?indicator= · API docs
