Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
OAE: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, OAE's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.925 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.58 | 2025 (50.9) |
Latest observed6.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.16 | 8.66 | 5.66 | 6.74 – 7.58 |
| 2028 | 7.89 | 10.49 | 5.29 | 6.98 – 8.8 |
| 2030 | 8.62 | 11.97 | 5.26 | 7.24 – 9.99 |
| 2035 | 10.43 | 15.17 | 5.69 | 7.79 – 13.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.76typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.1T | 11T | 9.3T | 9.8T – 10.4T |
| 2028 | 10.8T | 12.4T | 9.4T | 10T – 11.6T |
| 2030 | 11.4T | 13.5T | 9.7T | 10.1T – 12.7T |
| 2035 | 13.1T | 16T | 10.6T | 10.4T – 15.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.3T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±711.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.46 | 10.94 | -3.02 | 2.16 – 4.76 |
| 2028 | 4.46 | 12 | -6.77 | 2.08 – 6.83 |
| 2030 | 5.45 | 12 | -9.04 | 2.23 – 8.67 |
| 2035 | 7.93 | 12 | -10 | 2.72 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.86typical miss · 1 realized · 33% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.5k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.4k | 62k | 51.7k | 54.7k – 58.2k |
| 2028 | 59.6k | 69.1k | 51.3k | 55.2k – 64k |
| 2030 | 62.7k | 75k | 52.1k | 55.6k – 69.9k |
| 2035 | 70.6k | 88k | 55.5k | 55.9k – 85.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead62.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.16 | 56.31 | 47.37 | 50.55 – 53.78 |
| 2028 | 54.69 | 61.88 | 46.39 | 50.64 – 58.74 |
| 2030 | 57.22 | 66.5 | 46.51 | 50.72 – 63.71 |
| 2035 | 63.53 | 76.65 | 48.39 | 50.35 – 76.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.26typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.06 | 6.04 | -2.2 | 1.15 – 2.98 |
| 2028 | 1.64 | 8.53 | -5 | 0.04 – 3.25 |
| 2030 | 1.22 | 10.11 | -5 | -0.84 – 3.29 |
| 2035 | 0.17 | 12.75 | -5 | -2.77 – 3.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.34typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed179.1m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 178m | 186.4m | 170.2m | 172.5m – 183.5m |
| 2028 | 178.7m | 187.1m | 170.8m | 165.4m – 191.9m |
| 2030 | 179.3m | 187.8m | 171.4m | 159m – 199.7m |
| 2035 | 181m | 189.5m | 173m | 143.4m – 218.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead179.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.39 | 4.15 | 2.62 | 3.21 – 3.56 |
| 2028 | 2.96 | 4.28 | 1.63 | 2.61 – 3.3 |
| 2030 | 2.53 | 4.24 | 0.82 | 2.06 – 2.99 |
| 2035 | 1.46 | 3.87 | 0 | 0.85 – 2.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.58· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.21typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-17 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/OAE · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.1077 + 0.1706·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.904 over 39 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.1T | 2023 (5.5) |
| 2027 | 9.5T | 2024 (6.6) |
| 2028 | 9.8T | 2025 (6.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1200077042998.1387 + 1262266905908.9324·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.87 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.77 | 2023 (9T) |
| 2027 | 49.68 | 2024 (9.3T) |
| 2028 | 51.05 | 2025 (9.9T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 25.5572 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.809 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.34 | 2024 (50.8) |
| 2027 | 3.33 | 2025 (50.9) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 8.0579 + -0.0929·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.576 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.74 | 2025 (9.9T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 7.9537 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.522 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.89 | 2023 (9T) |
| 2027 | 1.76 | 2024 (9.3T) |
| 2028 | 1.56 | 2025 (9.9T) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 5.1903 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/OAE?indicator= · API docs
