Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Pakistan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Pakistan's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.847 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.54 | 2025 (72.8) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed0(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.18 | 5.53 | -3.17 | 0.27 – 2.08 |
| 2028 | 2.53 | 10.07 | -5.01 | 0.87 – 4.19 |
| 2030 | 3.89 | 13.62 | -5.85 | 1.59 – 6.18 |
| 2035 | 7.27 | 21.04 | -6.49 | 3.3 – 11.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.18typical miss · 1 realized
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.22 | 11.56 | 9.06 | 9.87 – 10.58 |
| 2028 | 10.69 | 13.01 | 8.69 | 9.85 – 11.54 |
| 2030 | 11.17 | 14.16 | 8.58 | 9.85 – 12.49 |
| 2035 | 12.35 | 16.58 | 8.69 | 9.77 – 14.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.74typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed407.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 415.5bn | 487.6bn | 353bn | 400.3bn – 430.7bn |
| 2028 | 438.5bn | 563.3bn | 330.3bn | 402.6bn – 474.4bn |
| 2030 | 461.5bn | 622.7bn | 321.8bn | 405.4bn – 517.6bn |
| 2035 | 519bn | 746.9bn | 321.4bn | 408.8bn – 629.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead469bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±34.6bntypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.02 | 12 | -3.05 | 3.39 – 6.65 |
| 2028 | 7.77 | 12 | -6.2 | 4.71 – 10.84 |
| 2030 | 10.53 | 12 | -7.52 | 6.22 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 5.17 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.42typical miss · 1 realized · 39% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6k | 1.9k | 1.3k | 1.5k – 1.7k |
| 2028 | 1.7k | 2.2k | 1.2k | 1.5k – 1.8k |
| 2030 | 1.7k | 2.4k | 1.1k | 1.5k – 1.9k |
| 2035 | 1.8k | 2.8k | 984.58 | 1.4k – 2.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±227.42typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.04 | 84.23 | 62.28 | 71.29 – 76.79 |
| 2028 | 76.52 | 94.16 | 56.16 | 70.13 – 82.9 |
| 2030 | 78.99 | 101.77 | 52.71 | 69.17 – 88.82 |
| 2035 | 85.19 | 117.4 | 48.02 | 66.6 – 103.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead69.22· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.24typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.99 | 22.01 | 11.97 | 15.95 – 18.03 |
| 2028 | 16.55 | 25.24 | 7.87 | 14.43 – 18.68 |
| 2030 | 16.12 | 27.33 | 4.9 | 13.11 – 19.12 |
| 2035 | 15.02 | 30.89 | 0 | 10.19 – 19.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.02typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.17 | 23.96 | -5 | -3.91 – 6.24 |
| 2028 | -5 | 34.48 | -5 | -5 – 3.99 |
| 2030 | -5 | 45.96 | -5 | -5 – 6.7 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 11.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.93typical miss · 1 realized · 84% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.18 | 14.32 | 10.33 | 11.68 – 12.69 |
| 2028 | 11.33 | 15.03 | 8.12 | 10.26 – 12.4 |
| 2030 | 10.48 | 15.26 | 6.33 | 8.95 – 12 |
| 2035 | 8.34 | 15.1 | 2.48 | 6.04 – 10.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.96· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed255.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 254.2m | 266.2m | 243m | 246.3m – 262.1m |
| 2028 | 258.5m | 270.8m | 247.2m | 239.4m – 277.7m |
| 2030 | 262.9m | 275.3m | 251.3m | 233m – 292.7m |
| 2035 | 273.7m | 286.7m | 261.7m | 217m – 330.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead247.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.38 | 8.27 | -3.79 | 0.49 – 2.26 |
| 2028 | 1.74 | 13.68 | -7.21 | 0.17 – 3.32 |
| 2030 | 2.11 | 15 | -9.45 | 0.01 – 4.2 |
| 2035 | 3.02 | 15 | -10 | -0.19 – 6.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.55typical miss · 1 realized · 44% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.4bn | 30.9bn | 8bn | 17.4bn – 21.5bn |
| 2028 | 24.2bn | 43.9bn | 4.4bn | 20bn – 28.3bn |
| 2030 | 28.9bn | 54.4bn | 3.3bn | 22.6bn – 35.1bn |
| 2035 | 40.6bn | 76.8bn | 4.5bn | 28.6bn – 52.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.54 | 5.76 | 1.32 | 3.15 – 3.94 |
| 2028 | 3.29 | 7.14 | 0 | 2.54 – 4.04 |
| 2030 | 3.17 | 8.13 | 0 | 2.15 – 4.18 |
| 2035 | 3.07 | 10.09 | 0 | 1.5 – 4.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.6bn | 42bn | 17.1bn | 27.2bn – 31.9bn |
| 2028 | 36.9bn | 58.4bn | 15.4bn | 31.8bn – 41.9bn |
| 2030 | 44.2bn | 72bn | 16.4bn | 36.4bn – 52bn |
| 2035 | 62.5bn | 101.8bn | 23.2bn | 46.5bn – 78.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.26 | 6.23 | 4.3 | 5.03 – 5.5 |
| 2028 | 4.95 | 6.63 | 3.27 | 4.46 – 5.45 |
| 2030 | 4.64 | 6.81 | 2.47 | 3.94 – 5.34 |
| 2035 | 3.86 | 6.92 | 0.8 | 2.77 – 4.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.64typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PAK · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.846 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.56 | 2025 (5.42) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 52.0132 + 4.16·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.624 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 295.2bn | 2024 (70.3) |
| 2027 | 312.9bn | 2025 (72.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -201108456497.7468 + 7060262735.5376·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PAK?indicator= · API docs
