Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Panama: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Panama's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.651 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.68 | 2025 (-0.2) |
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.68 | 6.11 | -4.76 | -0.45 – 1.8 |
| 2028 | 2.43 | 11.85 | -7 | 0.39 – 4.46 |
| 2030 | 4.18 | 16.34 | -7.99 | 1.36 – 6.99 |
| 2035 | 8.55 | 25.75 | -8.65 | 3.67 – 13.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.71· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.18typical miss · 1 realized · 145% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.36(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 45.14 | 52.94 | 38.37 | 43.3 – 46.97 |
| 2027 | 46.69 | 60.22 | 34.97 | 42.52 – 50.87 |
| 2029 | 48.25 | 65.71 | 33.12 | 41.9 – 54.6 |
| 2034 | 52.14 | 76.83 | 30.75 | 40.27 – 64.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.79· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 93.8bn | 108.8bn | 80.8bn | 90.5bn – 97.1bn |
| 2028 | 102.4bn | 128.3bn | 79.8bn | 94.3bn – 110.4bn |
| 2030 | 110.9bn | 144.5bn | 81.8bn | 98bn – 123.8bn |
| 2035 | 132.3bn | 179.7bn | 91.2bn | 104.8bn – 159.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead101bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.7bntypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.17 | 12 | -10 | -1.19 – 9.53 |
| 2028 | 3.86 | 12 | -10 | -5.5 – 12 |
| 2030 | 3.54 | 12 | -10 | -8.58 – 12 |
| 2035 | 2.75 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.83typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.3k | 23.8k | 17.3k | 19.6k – 21.1k |
| 2028 | 21.8k | 27.8k | 16.6k | 20k – 23.6k |
| 2030 | 23.3k | 31.1k | 16.5k | 20.5k – 26k |
| 2035 | 26.9k | 37.9k | 17.3k | 21.3k – 32.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±531.41typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.6 | 72.04 | 45.24 | 56.73 – 62.47 |
| 2028 | 65.6 | 87.15 | 40.74 | 59.14 – 72.07 |
| 2030 | 71.6 | 99.42 | 39.5 | 61.59 – 81.61 |
| 2035 | 86.61 | 125.95 | 41.21 | 66.7 – 106.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead57.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.2typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.32(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39.24 | 49.11 | 29.37 | 37.1 – 41.38 |
| 2027 | 39.09 | 56.18 | 22 | 34.6 – 43.58 |
| 2029 | 38.94 | 61 | 16.88 | 32.45 – 45.43 |
| 2034 | 38.56 | 69.76 | 7.36 | 27.62 – 49.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.45 | 3.01 | -4.16 | -1.23 – 0.33 |
| 2028 | -1.68 | 4.31 | -5 | -3.09 – -0.27 |
| 2030 | -2.91 | 4.83 | -5 | -4.86 – -0.96 |
| 2035 | -5 | 5.95 | -5 | -5 – -1.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.97· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.25typical miss · 1 realized · 125% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.4(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.67 | 42.83 | 21.99 | 29.56 – 33.77 |
| 2027 | 32.07 | 51.4 | 15.32 | 27.77 – 36.37 |
| 2029 | 32.48 | 57.43 | 10.85 | 26.31 – 38.64 |
| 2034 | 33.49 | 68.78 | 2.91 | 23.09 – 43.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.79· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.6m | 4.8m | 4.4m | 4.4m – 4.7m |
| 2028 | 4.6m | 4.8m | 4.4m | 4.3m – 5m |
| 2030 | 4.7m | 4.9m | 4.5m | 4.1m – 5.2m |
| 2035 | 4.8m | 5.1m | 4.6m | 3.8m – 5.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±65.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.77 | 15 | -10 | -0.67 – 6.2 |
| 2028 | 3.3 | 15 | -10 | -2.73 – 9.34 |
| 2030 | 3.84 | 15 | -10 | -4.06 – 11.73 |
| 2035 | 5.18 | 15 | -10 | -6.38 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.87typical miss · 1 realized · 115% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.3bn | 11.1bn | 1.5bn | 5.5bn – 7.1bn |
| 2028 | 6.4bn | 14.8bn | 0 | 4.8bn – 8bn |
| 2030 | 6.5bn | 17.3bn | 0 | 4.4bn – 8.7bn |
| 2035 | 6.9bn | 22.1bn | 0 | 3.4bn – 10.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.86 | 5.09 | 0 | 1.33 – 2.38 |
| 2028 | 1.99 | 7.59 | 0 | 1.04 – 2.94 |
| 2030 | 2.06 | 9.28 | 0 | 0.79 – 3.33 |
| 2035 | 2.11 | 12.33 | 0 | 0.21 – 4.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.71· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.3bn | 11.1bn | 1.5bn | 5.5bn – 7.1bn |
| 2028 | 6.4bn | 14.8bn | 0 | 4.8bn – 8bn |
| 2030 | 6.5bn | 17.3bn | 0 | 4.4bn – 8.7bn |
| 2035 | 6.9bn | 22.1bn | 0 | 3.4bn – 10.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.27 | 11.43 | 3.1 | 6.51 – 8.02 |
| 2028 | 5.08 | 12.3 | 0 | 3.73 – 6.43 |
| 2030 | 2.9 | 12.21 | 0 | 1.24 – 4.56 |
| 2035 | 0 | 13.17 | 0 | 0 – 2.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.83typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PAN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 9.775 + 0.457·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.613 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39bn | 2023 (54.4) |
| 2027 | 35.6bn | 2024 (57.8) |
| 2028 | 36.8bn | 2025 (56.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 93876866573.6391 + -1008160653.8315·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.601 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.35 | 2025 (8.36) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -10.4817 + 0.8526·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.584 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 64.47 | 2025 (-0.2) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 64.9356 + 2.3178·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PAN?indicator= · API docs
