Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Panama: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Panama's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.653 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.1 | 2026 (-1.5) |
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.16 | 4.43 | -6.76 | -2.32 – -0 |
| 2029 | -0.49 | 9.21 | -10.18 | -2.52 – 1.54 |
| 2031 | 0.18 | 12.7 | -12.33 | -2.45 – 2.82 |
| 2036 | 1.87 | 19.57 | -15.83 | -2.04 – 5.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.85· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.36(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 45.14 | 52.94 | 38.37 | 43.3 – 46.97 |
| 2027 | 46.69 | 60.22 | 34.97 | 42.52 – 50.87 |
| 2029 | 48.25 | 65.71 | 33.12 | 41.9 – 54.6 |
| 2034 | 52.14 | 76.83 | 30.75 | 40.27 – 64.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.79· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 98.2bn | 113.2bn | 85.2bn | 94.9bn – 101.6bn |
| 2029 | 106.6bn | 132.6bn | 84.1bn | 98.4bn – 114.8bn |
| 2031 | 115bn | 148.6bn | 85.9bn | 101.8bn – 128.2bn |
| 2036 | 136bn | 183.5bn | 94.9bn | 107.8bn – 164.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead99.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.39 | 8.93 | -1.41 | 2.41 – 4.37 |
| 2029 | 2.13 | 11.73 | -6.18 | 0.43 – 3.84 |
| 2031 | 0.88 | 12 | -9.85 | -1.26 – 3.02 |
| 2036 | -2.26 | 12 | -10 | -5.54 – 1.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.75· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 21.1k | 24.6k | 18.1k | 20.3k – 21.8k |
| 2029 | 22.5k | 28.6k | 17.3k | 20.7k – 24.3k |
| 2031 | 23.9k | 31.7k | 17.2k | 21.1k – 26.8k |
| 2036 | 27.5k | 38.5k | 17.9k | 21.8k – 33.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.3k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 60.14 | 72.54 | 45.84 | 57.28 – 63.01 |
| 2029 | 65.03 | 86.51 | 40.26 | 58.61 – 71.46 |
| 2031 | 69.92 | 97.65 | 37.94 | 60.07 – 79.78 |
| 2036 | 82.15 | 121.36 | 36.91 | 62.97 – 101.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead59.16· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.32(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39.24 | 49.11 | 29.37 | 37.1 – 41.38 |
| 2027 | 39.09 | 56.18 | 22 | 34.6 – 43.58 |
| 2029 | 38.94 | 61 | 16.88 | 32.45 – 45.43 |
| 2034 | 38.56 | 69.76 | 7.36 | 27.62 – 49.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.14 | 4.6 | -0.49 | 1.57 – 2.72 |
| 2029 | 4.37 | 8.62 | -0.19 | 3.22 – 5.52 |
| 2031 | 6.6 | 12.09 | 0.71 | 4.85 – 8.34 |
| 2036 | 12.16 | 19.93 | 3.84 | 8.49 – 15.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.4(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.67 | 42.83 | 21.99 | 29.56 – 33.77 |
| 2027 | 32.07 | 51.4 | 15.32 | 27.77 – 36.37 |
| 2029 | 32.48 | 57.43 | 10.85 | 26.31 – 38.64 |
| 2034 | 33.49 | 68.78 | 2.91 | 23.09 – 43.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.79· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.6m | 4.8m | 4.4m | 4.5m – 4.7m |
| 2029 | 4.7m | 4.9m | 4.5m | 4.3m – 5m |
| 2031 | 4.7m | 4.9m | 4.5m | 4.2m – 5.3m |
| 2036 | 4.9m | 5.1m | 4.6m | 3.8m – 5.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.77 | 15 | -10 | -0.67 – 6.2 |
| 2028 | 3.3 | 15 | -10 | -2.73 – 9.34 |
| 2030 | 3.84 | 15 | -10 | -4.06 – 11.73 |
| 2035 | 5.18 | 15 | -10 | -6.38 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.87typical miss · 1 realized · 115% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.3bn | 11.1bn | 1.5bn | 5.5bn – 7.1bn |
| 2028 | 6.4bn | 14.8bn | 0 | 4.8bn – 8bn |
| 2030 | 6.5bn | 17.3bn | 0 | 4.4bn – 8.7bn |
| 2035 | 6.9bn | 22.1bn | 0 | 3.4bn – 10.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.86 | 5.09 | 0 | 1.33 – 2.38 |
| 2028 | 1.99 | 7.59 | 0 | 1.04 – 2.94 |
| 2030 | 2.06 | 9.28 | 0 | 0.79 – 3.33 |
| 2035 | 2.11 | 12.33 | 0 | 0.21 – 4.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.71· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.3bn | 11.1bn | 1.5bn | 5.5bn – 7.1bn |
| 2028 | 6.4bn | 14.8bn | 0 | 4.8bn – 8bn |
| 2030 | 6.5bn | 17.3bn | 0 | 4.4bn – 8.7bn |
| 2035 | 6.9bn | 22.1bn | 0 | 3.4bn – 10.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.51 | 13.85 | 7.17 | 9.83 – 11.19 |
| 2029 | 10.73 | 16.52 | 4.94 | 9.33 – 12.13 |
| 2031 | 10.95 | 18.42 | 3.47 | 8.93 – 12.97 |
| 2036 | 11.5 | 22.07 | 0.93 | 8.04 – 14.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.61· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PAN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 9.7808 + 0.4571·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.601 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.55 | 2026 (10.4) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -10.4395 + 0.8551·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.577 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 60.81 | 2026 (-1.5) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 64.1362 + 2.2153·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.566 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 37.6bn | 2024 (57.8) |
| 2028 | 38.7bn | 2025 (56.6) |
| 2029 | 37.7bn | 2026 (57.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 94935578352.85 + -992736553.2405·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PAN?indicator= · API docs
