Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Peru: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Peru's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.622 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 177.9bn | 2023 (32.4) |
Latest observed4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.04 | 8.61 | -0.52 | 3.05 – 5.04 |
| 2028 | 5.13 | 13.03 | -2.77 | 3.27 – 6.99 |
| 2030 | 6.21 | 16.42 | -3.99 | 3.63 – 8.79 |
| 2035 | 8.93 | 23.36 | -5.5 | 4.56 – 13.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.04typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.8 | 36.11 | 26.2 | 29.55 – 32.05 |
| 2028 | 32.46 | 41.66 | 24.49 | 29.59 – 35.33 |
| 2030 | 34.12 | 45.99 | 23.83 | 29.7 – 38.55 |
| 2035 | 38.27 | 55.06 | 23.72 | 29.75 – 46.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.75typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed334.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 353.6bn | 396.1bn | 316.7bn | 342.6bn – 364.6bn |
| 2028 | 401bn | 474.6bn | 337.1bn | 371.3bn – 430.6bn |
| 2030 | 448.3bn | 543.5bn | 365.9bn | 397.4bn – 499.2bn |
| 2035 | 566.8bn | 701.3bn | 450.2bn | 449.2bn – 684.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead424.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±46bntypical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.94 | 12 | -10 | 0.76 – 9.13 |
| 2028 | 8.13 | 12 | -10 | 0.63 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.32 | 12 | -10 | 1.23 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -2.91 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.94typical miss · 1 realized · 65% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.2k | 11.4k | 9.1k | 9.8k – 10.5k |
| 2028 | 11.4k | 13.6k | 9.4k | 10.5k – 12.2k |
| 2030 | 12.6k | 15.4k | 10.1k | 11.1k – 14k |
| 2035 | 15.6k | 19.6k | 12.1k | 12.3k – 18.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.09 | 36.15 | 25.25 | 29.81 – 32.36 |
| 2028 | 33.06 | 41.82 | 22.94 | 30.12 – 35.99 |
| 2030 | 35.03 | 46.34 | 21.97 | 30.48 – 39.57 |
| 2035 | 39.95 | 55.96 | 21.49 | 31.1 – 48.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.49typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.82 | 27.39 | 16.26 | 20.62 – 23.02 |
| 2028 | 21.78 | 31.41 | 12.14 | 19.26 – 24.3 |
| 2030 | 21.73 | 34.17 | 9.29 | 18.09 – 25.37 |
| 2035 | 21.62 | 39.21 | 4.03 | 15.47 – 27.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.37typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.75 | 7.85 | -4.78 | 0.37 – 3.13 |
| 2028 | 1.09 | 11.65 | -5 | -1.31 – 3.48 |
| 2030 | 0.42 | 14.06 | -5 | -2.68 – 3.52 |
| 2035 | -1.25 | 18.04 | -5 | -5 – 3.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.05typical miss · 1 realized · 54% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.08 | 23.24 | 17.34 | 19.31 – 20.85 |
| 2028 | 19.1 | 24.58 | 14.35 | 17.4 – 20.8 |
| 2030 | 18.13 | 25.2 | 12 | 15.67 – 20.59 |
| 2035 | 15.68 | 25.69 | 7.02 | 11.75 – 19.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.13typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.5m | 36.1m | 33m | 33.4m – 35.5m |
| 2028 | 34.9m | 36.5m | 33.3m | 32.3m – 37.5m |
| 2030 | 35.3m | 36.9m | 33.7m | 31.3m – 39.3m |
| 2035 | 36.3m | 38m | 34.7m | 28.7m – 43.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.1m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±275.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.55 | 11.22 | -3.95 | 1.43 – 3.68 |
| 2028 | 4.28 | 15 | -6.98 | 2.2 – 6.36 |
| 2030 | 6.01 | 15 | -8.53 | 3.1 – 8.91 |
| 2035 | 10.32 | 15 | -10 | 5.25 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.9bn | 99.1bn | 78.7bn | 85.9bn – 91.9bn |
| 2028 | 97.3bn | 115bn | 79.7bn | 90bn – 104.7bn |
| 2030 | 105.7bn | 128.5bn | 83bn | 93.7bn – 117.8bn |
| 2035 | 126.8bn | 159bn | 94.6bn | 100.5bn – 153.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead86.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.92 | 16.28 | 5.56 | 9.92 – 11.91 |
| 2028 | 11.5 | 20.79 | 2.22 | 9.53 – 13.48 |
| 2030 | 11.79 | 23.78 | 0 | 9.01 – 14.57 |
| 2035 | 12.02 | 28.97 | 0 | 7.5 – 16.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.17· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.3bn | 105.3bn | 83.4bn | 91.2bn – 97.5bn |
| 2028 | 104.1bn | 123.1bn | 85.2bn | 96.2bn – 112bn |
| 2030 | 113.9bn | 138.4bn | 89.5bn | 101bn – 126.9bn |
| 2035 | 138.5bn | 173.1bn | 103.8bn | 109.7bn – 167.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead92.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.85 | 6.73 | 2.97 | 4.48 – 5.21 |
| 2028 | 4.31 | 7.57 | 1.06 | 3.61 – 5.02 |
| 2030 | 3.77 | 7.98 | 0 | 2.83 – 4.72 |
| 2035 | 2.43 | 8.38 | 0 | 1.13 – 3.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.97· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.15typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PER · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 179.3bn | 2024 (32.1) |
| 2028 | 189.1bn | 2025 (30.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 335999146630.173 + -4881070010.757·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.603 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.2 | 2025 (334.9bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 42.5906 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.559 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.92 | 2025 (3.43) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 5.4281 + -0.1467·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.537 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1 | 2023 (32.4) |
| 2027 | -1.05 | 2024 (32.1) |
| 2028 | -1.33 | 2025 (30.1) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -5.6884 + 0.1446·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.504 over 64 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 215.4 | 2025 (3.43) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 565.1894 + -101.9625·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PER?indicator= · API docs
