Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Peru: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Peru's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.583 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 42.94 | 2026 (6.3) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.09 | 8.48 | -0.3 | 3.13 – 5.05 |
| 2029 | 5.46 | 13.06 | -2.14 | 3.65 – 7.27 |
| 2031 | 6.83 | 16.65 | -2.98 | 4.29 – 9.38 |
| 2036 | 10.27 | 24.15 | -3.61 | 5.79 – 14.74 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.8· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.8 | 36.11 | 26.2 | 29.55 – 32.05 |
| 2028 | 32.46 | 41.66 | 24.49 | 29.59 – 35.33 |
| 2030 | 34.12 | 45.99 | 23.83 | 29.7 – 38.55 |
| 2035 | 38.27 | 55.06 | 23.72 | 29.75 – 46.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.75typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed334.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 406.6bn | 453.1bn | 366.3bn | 394bn – 419.2bn |
| 2029 | 471bn | 551.6bn | 401.2bn | 436.1bn – 505.8bn |
| 2031 | 535.4bn | 639.4bn | 445.2bn | 474.6bn – 596.2bn |
| 2036 | 696.4bn | 843.5bn | 568.9bn | 552bn – 840.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead403.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.15 | 12 | -6.59 | 0.43 – 3.86 |
| 2029 | 0.68 | 12 | -10 | -2.28 – 3.63 |
| 2031 | -0.8 | 12 | -10 | -4.63 – 3.04 |
| 2036 | -4.48 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.91· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.6k | 13k | 10.4k | 11.3k – 12k |
| 2029 | 13.3k | 15.7k | 11.3k | 12.3k – 14.3k |
| 2031 | 15k | 18.1k | 12.4k | 13.3k – 16.7k |
| 2036 | 19.3k | 23.7k | 15.5k | 15.3k – 23.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 30.6 | 35.66 | 24.75 | 29.33 – 31.87 |
| 2029 | 31.79 | 40.56 | 21.67 | 28.92 – 34.67 |
| 2031 | 32.99 | 44.31 | 19.92 | 28.61 – 37.37 |
| 2036 | 35.98 | 51.99 | 17.5 | 27.76 – 44.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.88· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.82 | 27.39 | 16.26 | 20.62 – 23.02 |
| 2028 | 21.78 | 31.41 | 12.14 | 19.26 – 24.3 |
| 2030 | 21.73 | 34.17 | 9.29 | 18.09 – 25.37 |
| 2035 | 21.62 | 39.21 | 4.03 | 15.47 – 27.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.37typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.06 | 8.82 | -3.12 | 1.73 – 4.38 |
| 2029 | 4.41 | 14.4 | -5 | 1.99 – 6.84 |
| 2031 | 5.77 | 18.66 | -5 | 2.45 – 9.09 |
| 2036 | 9.16 | 27.39 | -5 | 3.65 – 14.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.08 | 23.24 | 17.34 | 19.31 – 20.85 |
| 2028 | 19.1 | 24.58 | 14.35 | 17.4 – 20.8 |
| 2030 | 18.13 | 25.2 | 12 | 15.67 – 20.59 |
| 2035 | 15.68 | 25.69 | 7.02 | 11.75 – 19.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.13typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 34.6m | 36.3m | 33.1m | 33.6m – 35.7m |
| 2029 | 34.8m | 36.5m | 33.3m | 32.3m – 37.4m |
| 2031 | 35m | 36.7m | 33.5m | 31m – 39m |
| 2036 | 35.5m | 37.2m | 34m | 28.1m – 42.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.1m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.55 | 11.22 | -3.95 | 1.43 – 3.68 |
| 2028 | 4.28 | 15 | -6.98 | 2.2 – 6.36 |
| 2030 | 6.01 | 15 | -8.53 | 3.1 – 8.91 |
| 2035 | 10.32 | 15 | -10 | 5.25 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.9bn | 99.1bn | 78.7bn | 85.9bn – 91.9bn |
| 2028 | 97.3bn | 115bn | 79.7bn | 90bn – 104.7bn |
| 2030 | 105.7bn | 128.5bn | 83bn | 93.7bn – 117.8bn |
| 2035 | 126.8bn | 159bn | 94.6bn | 100.5bn – 153.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead86.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.92 | 16.28 | 5.56 | 9.92 – 11.91 |
| 2028 | 11.5 | 20.79 | 2.22 | 9.53 – 13.48 |
| 2030 | 11.79 | 23.78 | 0 | 9.01 – 14.57 |
| 2035 | 12.02 | 28.97 | 0 | 7.5 – 16.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.17· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.3bn | 105.3bn | 83.4bn | 91.2bn – 97.5bn |
| 2028 | 104.1bn | 123.1bn | 85.2bn | 96.2bn – 112bn |
| 2030 | 113.9bn | 138.4bn | 89.5bn | 101bn – 126.9bn |
| 2035 | 138.5bn | 173.1bn | 103.8bn | 109.7bn – 167.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead92.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.55 | 7.86 | 5.24 | 6.25 – 6.86 |
| 2029 | 7.05 | 9.32 | 4.79 | 6.37 – 7.74 |
| 2031 | 7.56 | 10.48 | 4.63 | 6.5 – 8.61 |
| 2036 | 8.81 | 12.95 | 4.68 | 6.77 – 10.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.4· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PER · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.553 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.05 | 2026 (2.8) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 5.4565 + -0.1464·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.546 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 188.3bn | 2026 (30) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 351411655467.729 + -5436692667.1186·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.529 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4 | 2026 (380.9bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -4.9594 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.504 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 276.41 | 2026 (2.8) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 561.8812 + -101.9531·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PER?indicator= · API docs
