Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Philippines: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Philippines's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.75 over 38 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.15 | 2023 (2.2) |
Latest observed-4.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.8 | 1.7 | -9.3 | -4.98 – -2.62 |
| 2028 | -4.8 | 4.73 | -14.32 | -6.97 – -2.62 |
| 2030 | -5.79 | 6.5 | -18.09 | -8.77 – -2.82 |
| 2035 | -8.29 | 9.1 | -25.67 | -13.16 – -3.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.17 | 30 | 22.85 | 25.2 – 27.14 |
| 2028 | 25.41 | 32.05 | 19.65 | 23.24 – 27.58 |
| 2030 | 24.65 | 33.22 | 17.22 | 21.45 – 27.85 |
| 2035 | 22.75 | 34.87 | 12.24 | 17.38 – 28.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.3typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed487.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 506.6bn | 540.1bn | 477.5bn | 490.9bn – 522.3bn |
| 2028 | 554.9bn | 613.1bn | 504.6bn | 513.9bn – 596bn |
| 2030 | 603.3bn | 678.4bn | 538.3bn | 534.8bn – 671.8bn |
| 2035 | 724.3bn | 830.4bn | 632.3bn | 574bn – 874.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead521.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.72 | 12 | -6.87 | 2.42 – 7.03 |
| 2028 | 5.5 | 12 | -10 | 1.37 – 9.62 |
| 2030 | 6.27 | 12 | -10 | 0.79 – 11.76 |
| 2035 | 8.21 | 12 | -10 | -0.15 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.32typical miss · 1 realized · 39% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.3k | 4.6k | 4.1k | 4.2k – 4.4k |
| 2028 | 4.7k | 5.2k | 4.2k | 4.3k – 5k |
| 2030 | 5k | 5.7k | 4.4k | 4.5k – 5.6k |
| 2035 | 5.9k | 6.9k | 5.1k | 4.7k – 7.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±47.66typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.06 | 70.61 | 52.19 | 59.75 – 64.37 |
| 2028 | 67.98 | 82.79 | 50.89 | 62.44 – 73.52 |
| 2030 | 73.9 | 93.02 | 51.83 | 65.05 – 82.75 |
| 2035 | 88.7 | 115.74 | 57.49 | 70.3 – 107.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead62.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.56typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.44 | 48.93 | 31.94 | 38.49 – 42.38 |
| 2028 | 40.82 | 55.54 | 26.1 | 36.61 – 45.03 |
| 2030 | 41.2 | 60.2 | 22.21 | 35 – 47.41 |
| 2035 | 42.17 | 69.03 | 15.3 | 31.31 – 53.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.11typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.26 | 4.88 | -2.62 | 0.44 – 2.09 |
| 2028 | -0.91 | 5.36 | -5 | -2.35 – 0.53 |
| 2030 | -3.09 | 5.01 | -5 | -5 – -1.05 |
| 2035 | -5 | 6.45 | -5 | -5 – -1.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.34typical miss · 1 realized · 77% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.49 | 27.13 | 18.47 | 21.46 – 23.51 |
| 2028 | 21.83 | 29.87 | 14.87 | 19.63 – 24.03 |
| 2030 | 21.17 | 31.55 | 12.18 | 18 – 24.35 |
| 2035 | 19.53 | 34.2 | 6.81 | 14.31 – 24.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.88typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed116.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 116.5m | 122m | 111.4m | 112.9m – 120.1m |
| 2028 | 117.6m | 123.1m | 112.4m | 108.9m – 126.3m |
| 2030 | 118.6m | 124.2m | 113.4m | 105.1m – 132.1m |
| 2035 | 121.2m | 126.9m | 115.9m | 96.1m – 146.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead115.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.84 | 14.72 | -4.33 | 2.41 – 5.26 |
| 2028 | 6.44 | 15 | -7.7 | 3.77 – 9.1 |
| 2030 | 9.04 | 15 | -9.21 | 5.27 – 12.8 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 8.3 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.7typical miss · 1 realized · 64% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.1bn | 111.9bn | 76.4bn | 89.9bn – 98.4bn |
| 2028 | 98.2bn | 129bn | 67.4bn | 88.8bn – 107.6bn |
| 2030 | 102.3bn | 142bn | 62.5bn | 88bn – 116.5bn |
| 2035 | 112.4bn | 168.6bn | 56.2bn | 85.8bn – 139bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead94.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.59 | 11.54 | 3.64 | 6.87 – 8.32 |
| 2028 | 7.93 | 14.78 | 1.09 | 6.51 – 9.36 |
| 2030 | 8.1 | 16.94 | 0 | 6.1 – 10.1 |
| 2035 | 8.23 | 20.73 | 0 | 5 – 11.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.18· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed110.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 114.4bn | 133.1bn | 95.8bn | 109.8bn – 119.1bn |
| 2028 | 122.7bn | 155bn | 90.4bn | 111.9bn – 133.5bn |
| 2030 | 131bn | 172.6bn | 89.3bn | 114.1bn – 147.8bn |
| 2035 | 151.6bn | 210.6bn | 92.7bn | 118.3bn – 184.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead114.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.08 | 3.17 | 0.99 | 1.88 – 2.28 |
| 2028 | 1.77 | 3.66 | 0 | 1.4 – 2.14 |
| 2030 | 1.46 | 3.9 | 0 | 0.97 – 1.95 |
| 2035 | 0.69 | 4.14 | 0 | 0 – 1.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.32typical miss · 1 realized · 61% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PHL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 |
| 3.16 |
| 2024 (2.2) |
| 2028 | 3.19 | 2025 (2.24) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 0.6684 + 1.1298·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.644 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.8 | 2023 (-2.8) |
| 2027 | 61.24 | 2024 (-4) |
| 2028 | 59.82 | 2025 (-3.3) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 53.0978 + -2.0357·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.628 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 206.6bn | 2023 (56.5) |
| 2027 | 205.8bn | 2024 (56.6) |
| 2028 | 186bn | 2025 (59.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 655940996504.469 + -7952342752.4344·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.605 over 41 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.55 | 2024 (3.21) |
| 2027 | 3.27 | 2025 (1.66) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.9591 + 0.1851·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.54 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.99 | 2024 (-4) |
| 2027 | 2.41 | 2025 (-3.3) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 4.3745 + 0.5968·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PHL?indicator= · API docs
