Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Palau: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2027, 2029, 2031, 2034, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Palau's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.598 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 32.84 | 2025 (-19) |
Latest observed-17.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -13.45 | 2.06 | -28.96 | -16.83 – -10.07 |
| 2029 | -5.95 | 20.91 | -30 | -11.72 – -0.18 |
| 2031 | 1.55 | 30 | -30 | -5.65 – 8.75 |
| 2036 | 20.3 | 30 | -28.75 | 7.04 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-14.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.7(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29.61 | 51.28 | 10.84 | 26.05 – 33.18 |
| 2027 | 23.45 | 60.98 | 0 | 16.96 – 29.93 |
| 2029 | 17.28 | 65.73 | 0 | 8.97 – 25.58 |
| 2034 | 1.86 | 70.38 | 0 | 0 – 11.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.45typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed345m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 398.1m | 450.5m | 352.7m | 385.5m – 410.7m |
| 2029 | 450.4m | 541.1m | 371.7m | 417.1m – 483.7m |
| 2031 | 502.6m | 619.8m | 401.1m | 445.6m – 559.7m |
| 2036 | 633.3m | 799m | 489.7m | 502m – 764.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead388.4m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.68 | 12 | -10 | -0.8 – 4.15 |
| 2029 | -1.4 | 12 | -10 | -5.71 – 2.92 |
| 2031 | -4.47 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.37 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -0.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.69· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22.8k | 25.8k | 20.2k | 22.1k – 23.5k |
| 2029 | 25.8k | 31.1k | 21.3k | 23.9k – 27.8k |
| 2031 | 28.9k | 35.7k | 23k | 25.6k – 32.2k |
| 2036 | 36.5k | 46.1k | 28.3k | 29k – 44.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.4k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.24 | 79.43 | 40.25 | 57.46 – 65.02 |
| 2029 | 70.31 | 101.82 | 33.96 | 62.09 – 78.54 |
| 2031 | 79.39 | 120.06 | 32.45 | 66.78 – 92 |
| 2036 | 102.08 | 159.6 | 35.7 | 76.89 – 127.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead59.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.11(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 73.42 | 88.84 | 57.99 | 69.88 – 76.96 |
| 2027 | 74.03 | 100.75 | 47.32 | 66.39 – 81.67 |
| 2029 | 74.64 | 109.14 | 40.15 | 63.39 – 85.9 |
| 2034 | 76.18 | 124.95 | 27.4 | 56.52 – 95.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73.2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.95typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.92 | 23.34 | -5 | 5.59 – 12.26 |
| 2029 | 17.77 | 42.73 | -5 | 11.38 – 24.16 |
| 2031 | 26.62 | 50 | -5 | 17.34 – 35.89 |
| 2036 | 48.73 | 50 | -0.1 | 30.83 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.44· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.84(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35.7 | 47.84 | 25.18 | 33.39 – 38 |
| 2027 | 35.37 | 56.4 | 17.15 | 30.67 – 40.07 |
| 2029 | 35.05 | 62.19 | 11.53 | 28.37 – 41.73 |
| 2034 | 34.24 | 70 | 0.97 | 23.27 – 45.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.74typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16.9k | 17.7k | 16.2k | 16.4k – 17.5k |
| 2029 | 16.2k | 17k | 15.5k | 15k – 17.4k |
| 2031 | 15.5k | 16.3k | 14.7k | 13.7k – 17.2k |
| 2036 | 13.7k | 14.9k | 12.5k | 10.8k – 16.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.9k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PLW · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 31.21 | 2026 (-17.2) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 15.5837 + -0.9085·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.542 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 308.3m | 2024 (66.3) |
| 2028 | 299.5m | 2025 (62.3) |
| 2029 | 287.2m | 2026 (56.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 162661579.2687 + 2197026.0366·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.517 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.78 | 2024 (66.3) |
| 2028 | 5.05 | 2025 (62.3) |
| 2029 | 4.04 | 2026 (56.7) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -6.2385 + 0.1812·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PLW?indicator= · API docs
