Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Palau: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Palau's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.656 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.99 | 2025 (-11.6) |
Latest observed-13.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.81 | 13.02 | -30 | -14.63 – -5 |
| 2028 | -6.24 | 30 | -30 | -14.6 – 2.13 |
| 2030 | -2.66 | 30 | -30 | -13.29 – 7.97 |
| 2035 | 6.28 | 30 | -30 | -9.46 – 22.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-10.98· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.99typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.7(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29.61 | 51.28 | 10.84 | 26.05 – 33.18 |
| 2027 | 23.45 | 60.98 | 0 | 16.96 – 29.93 |
| 2029 | 17.28 | 65.73 | 0 | 8.97 – 25.58 |
| 2034 | 1.86 | 70.38 | 0 | 0 – 11.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.45typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed345m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 364.6m | 416.1m | 320m | 352.7m – 376.6m |
| 2028 | 411.4m | 500.6m | 334.2m | 381m – 441.9m |
| 2030 | 458.3m | 573.3m | 358.6m | 406.2m – 510.3m |
| 2035 | 575.3m | 738m | 434.3m | 456m – 694.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead383.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.4mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.97 | 12 | -4.83 | 6.18 – 11.77 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 6.83 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 5.1 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.69 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.67typical miss · 1 realized · 109% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.6k | 23.5k | 18.1k | 19.9k – 21.3k |
| 2028 | 23.3k | 28.3k | 18.9k | 21.5k – 25k |
| 2030 | 25.9k | 32.4k | 20.2k | 23k – 28.8k |
| 2035 | 32.5k | 41.7k | 24.5k | 25.7k – 39.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±687.28typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.89 | 75.94 | 37.06 | 54.18 – 61.59 |
| 2028 | 68.06 | 99.32 | 31.99 | 59.99 – 76.14 |
| 2030 | 78.24 | 118.59 | 31.67 | 65.77 – 90.7 |
| 2035 | 103.67 | 160.75 | 37.82 | 78.3 – 129.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead56.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.09typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.11(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 73.42 | 88.84 | 57.99 | 69.88 – 76.96 |
| 2027 | 74.03 | 100.75 | 47.32 | 66.39 – 81.67 |
| 2029 | 74.64 | 109.14 | 40.15 | 63.39 – 85.9 |
| 2034 | 76.18 | 124.95 | 27.4 | 56.52 – 95.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73.2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.95typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.62 | 12.84 | -5 | -3.62 – 2.38 |
| 2028 | -4.33 | 18.98 | -5 | -5 – 1.04 |
| 2030 | -5 | 25.1 | -5 | -5 – 2.07 |
| 2035 | -5 | 37.57 | -5 | -5 – 5.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.32typical miss · 1 realized · 137% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.84(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35.7 | 47.84 | 25.18 | 33.39 – 38 |
| 2027 | 35.37 | 56.4 | 17.15 | 30.67 – 40.07 |
| 2029 | 35.05 | 62.19 | 11.53 | 28.37 – 41.73 |
| 2034 | 34.24 | 70 | 0.97 | 23.27 – 45.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.74typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.7k | 18.5k | 16.9k | 17.1k – 18.2k |
| 2028 | 17.6k | 18.5k | 16.9k | 16.3k – 18.9k |
| 2030 | 17.6k | 18.4k | 16.8k | 15.6k – 19.6k |
| 2035 | 17.5k | 18.3k | 16.7k | 13.9k – 21.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±670.44typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PLW · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 14.7846 + -0.8802·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.551 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.64 | 2023 (71.2) |
| 2027 | 6.07 | 2024 (60.1) |
| 2028 | 4.39 | 2025 (52.8) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -7.8239 + 0.2312·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.543 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -26.32 | 2024 (2.23) |
| 2027 | -30.15 | 2025 (-0.42) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -29.5457 + 1.4437·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PLW?indicator= · API docs
