Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Papua New Guinea: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2005, 2007, 2009, 2014, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Papua New Guinea's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.789 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.98 | 2024 (2.63) |
Latest observed14.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.26 | 20.85 | 7.67 | 12.69 – 15.83 |
| 2028 | 14.19 | 25.6 | 2.78 | 11.18 – 17.2 |
| 2030 | 14.11 | 28.84 | -0.62 | 9.97 – 18.24 |
| 2035 | 13.92 | 30 | -6.91 | 7.44 – 20.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.16typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.16(2004)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 74.91 | 84.3 | 66.77 | 72.37 – 77.45 |
| 2007 | 80.4 | 96.66 | 66.3 | 74.21 – 86.58 |
| 2009 | 85.88 | 106.88 | 67.68 | 76.01 – 95.75 |
| 2014 | 99.6 | 129.3 | 73.86 | 78.94 – 120.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead71· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.9bn | 37.3bn | 29.1bn | 31.9bn – 34bn |
| 2028 | 34.3bn | 41.9bn | 27.7bn | 31.8bn – 36.9bn |
| 2030 | 35.7bn | 45.6bn | 27.2bn | 31.7bn – 39.8bn |
| 2035 | 39.2bn | 53.1bn | 27.2bn | 31.1bn – 47.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.63 | 12 | 1.69 | 5.57 – 7.69 |
| 2028 | 8.96 | 12 | 0.4 | 6.89 – 11.04 |
| 2030 | 11.3 | 12 | 0.25 | 8.27 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -3.63 | 7.07 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.53typical miss · 1 realized · 114% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3k | 3.5k | 2.6k | 2.9k – 3.1k |
| 2028 | 3.1k | 3.8k | 2.4k | 2.8k – 3.3k |
| 2030 | 3.1k | 4.1k | 2.2k | 2.7k – 3.5k |
| 2035 | 3.2k | 4.6k | 2k | 2.5k – 3.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±397.23typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.23 | 61.89 | 45.4 | 52.19 – 56.28 |
| 2028 | 59.49 | 72.75 | 44.19 | 54.6 – 64.39 |
| 2030 | 64.75 | 81.87 | 45 | 56.94 – 72.57 |
| 2035 | 77.91 | 102.12 | 49.97 | 61.72 – 94.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.97· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.43typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.92(2004)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 60.19 | 67.67 | 52.71 | 58.08 – 62.29 |
| 2007 | 62.72 | 75.68 | 49.77 | 57.73 – 67.72 |
| 2009 | 65.26 | 81.98 | 48.53 | 57.48 – 73.04 |
| 2014 | 71.6 | 95.25 | 47.94 | 56.52 – 86.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead59.6· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.18 | 10.88 | 1.13 | 5.03 – 7.32 |
| 2028 | 11.52 | 19.68 | 2.79 | 9.16 – 13.88 |
| 2030 | 16.87 | 27.4 | 5.59 | 13.19 – 20.55 |
| 2035 | 30.24 | 45.12 | 14.28 | 22.1 – 38.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.38typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.13(2004)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 17.85 | 24.88 | 11.76 | 16.56 – 19.14 |
| 2007 | 17.39 | 29.56 | 6.85 | 14.82 – 19.97 |
| 2009 | 16.94 | 32.65 | 3.32 | 13.34 – 20.53 |
| 2014 | 15.79 | 38.01 | 0 | 10.09 – 21.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.38· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.7m | 11.2m | 10.2m | 10.4m – 11m |
| 2028 | 10.9m | 11.4m | 10.4m | 10.1m – 11.7m |
| 2030 | 11.1m | 11.6m | 10.6m | 9.9m – 12.4m |
| 2035 | 11.6m | 12.2m | 11.1m | 9.2m – 14m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±94.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.34 | 11.61 | -2.87 | 2.25 – 4.42 |
| 2028 | 4.38 | 15 | -6.37 | 2.38 – 6.38 |
| 2030 | 5.42 | 15 | -8.46 | 2.67 – 8.17 |
| 2035 | 8.03 | 15 | -10 | 3.47 – 12.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.53· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.49typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.7bn | 4.4bn | 3bn | 3.5bn – 3.9bn |
| 2027 | 4.1bn | 5.2bn | 2.9bn | 3.7bn – 4.4bn |
| 2029 | 4.4bn | 5.9bn | 3bn | 3.9bn – 5bn |
| 2034 | 5.4bn | 7.5bn | 3.3bn | 4.2bn – 6.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.9(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.68 | 6.21 | 3.15 | 4.37 – 4.99 |
| 2027 | 4.42 | 7.07 | 1.77 | 3.8 – 5.03 |
| 2029 | 4.29 | 7.71 | 0.87 | 3.42 – 5.16 |
| 2034 | 4.19 | 9.02 | 0 | 2.78 – 5.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.02· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.9bn | 4.5bn | 3.2bn | 3.7bn – 4bn |
| 2027 | 4.3bn | 5.4bn | 3.2bn | 3.9bn – 4.7bn |
| 2029 | 4.7bn | 6.1bn | 3.3bn | 4.1bn – 5.3bn |
| 2034 | 5.8bn | 7.8bn | 3.8bn | 4.6bn – 7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.49 | 2.79 | 2.19 | 2.4 – 2.57 |
| 2028 | 2.32 | 2.84 | 1.81 | 2.13 – 2.51 |
| 2030 | 2.15 | 2.82 | 1.49 | 1.88 – 2.43 |
| 2035 | 1.74 | 2.68 | 0.8 | 1.32 – 2.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.52· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PNG · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 36.05 | 2025 (2.57) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -55.9852 + 35.7973·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.623 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3 | 2023 (2.65) |
| 2027 | 4.68 | 2024 (2.63) |
| 2028 | 3.29 | 2025 (2.57) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -63.1389 + 25.8371·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.536 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.78 | 2025 (51.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.1665 + 0.012·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PNG?indicator= · API docs
