Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Poland: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Poland's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.804 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60.86 | 2024 (917.8bn) |
Latest observed-1.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.93 | 3.89 | -5.74 | -1.92 – 0.07 |
| 2028 | -0.78 | 7.57 | -9.12 | -2.53 – 0.98 |
| 2030 | -0.63 | 10.15 | -11.4 | -2.9 – 1.65 |
| 2035 | -0.25 | 14.99 | -15.49 | -3.52 – 3.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.98typical miss · 1 realized · 51% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.99 | 58.18 | 42.9 | 48.02 – 51.96 |
| 2028 | 50.08 | 64.25 | 37.79 | 45.65 – 54.51 |
| 2030 | 50.16 | 68.46 | 34.3 | 43.53 – 56.79 |
| 2035 | 50.37 | 76.25 | 27.94 | 38.61 – 62.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead49.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.01typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1T | 1.2T | 1T | 1.1T – 1.1T |
| 2028 | 1.3T | 1.5T | 1.1T | 1.2T – 1.4T |
| 2030 | 1.5T | 1.7T | 1.3T | 1.3T – 1.6T |
| 2035 | 1.9T | 2.3T | 1.7T | 1.5T – 2.3T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.2T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±22.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.68 | 12 | -3.85 | 2.97 – 6.4 |
| 2028 | 6.99 | 12 | -7.79 | 3.81 – 10.17 |
| 2030 | 9.3 | 12 | -9.78 | 4.88 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.89 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.28typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.5k | 33.4k | 28k | 29.5k – 31.4k |
| 2028 | 35.7k | 40.7k | 31.3k | 33k – 38.3k |
| 2030 | 40.9k | 47.4k | 35.2k | 36.2k – 45.5k |
| 2035 | 53.9k | 63.1k | 45.9k | 42.7k – 65.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±692.25typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60.28 | 69.62 | 49.49 | 57.87 – 62.68 |
| 2028 | 61.43 | 77.61 | 42.75 | 55.99 – 66.86 |
| 2030 | 62.58 | 83.47 | 38.47 | 54.36 – 70.8 |
| 2035 | 65.45 | 95 | 31.36 | 50.43 – 80.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead67.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.32typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.04 | 57.26 | 36.83 | 44.73 – 49.36 |
| 2028 | 46.97 | 64.66 | 29.28 | 42.01 – 51.93 |
| 2030 | 46.9 | 69.74 | 24.05 | 39.65 – 54.15 |
| 2035 | 46.71 | 79.02 | 14.41 | 34.3 – 59.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.66typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.52 | 15.96 | -5 | 1.91 – 7.13 |
| 2028 | 4.55 | 24.38 | -5 | -0.06 – 9.16 |
| 2030 | 4.58 | 30.18 | -5 | -1.46 – 10.62 |
| 2035 | 4.67 | 40.86 | -5 | -4.1 – 13.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.32typical miss · 1 realized · 41% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.36 | 13.29 | -5 | 2.31 – 6.41 |
| 2029 | 4.71 | 20.18 | -5 | 1.05 – 8.36 |
| 2031 | 4.83 | 24.81 | -5 | 0.01 – 9.65 |
| 2036 | 4.89 | 33.15 | -5 | -2.15 – 11.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.04· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.99 | 18.87 | 15.37 | 16.45 – 17.53 |
| 2028 | 16.83 | 20.08 | 14.02 | 15.56 – 18.1 |
| 2030 | 16.67 | 20.86 | 13.04 | 14.74 – 18.6 |
| 2035 | 16.26 | 22.19 | 11.13 | 12.81 – 19.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.07typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.5m | 38.2m | 34.9m | 35.4m – 37.6m |
| 2028 | 36.3m | 38.1m | 34.8m | 33.7m – 39m |
| 2030 | 36.2m | 37.9m | 34.6m | 32.1m – 40.3m |
| 2035 | 35.9m | 37.6m | 34.3m | 28.4m – 43.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±148.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.46 | 14.37 | -2.96 | 3.15 – 5.77 |
| 2028 | 4.95 | 15 | -7.92 | 2.57 – 7.33 |
| 2030 | 5.44 | 15 | -10 | 2.24 – 8.64 |
| 2035 | 6.66 | 15 | -10 | 1.68 – 11.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.95typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed194.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 205.2bn | 218.7bn | 191.7bn | 198.9bn – 211.6bn |
| 2028 | 231.5bn | 255bn | 208.1bn | 214.4bn – 248.7bn |
| 2030 | 257.9bn | 288.1bn | 227.6bn | 228.6bn – 287.2bn |
| 2035 | 323.7bn | 366.5bn | 280.9bn | 256.6bn – 390.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead206.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.59 | 6.98 | 4.21 | 5.29 – 5.89 |
| 2028 | 5.27 | 7.67 | 2.88 | 4.65 – 5.89 |
| 2030 | 5.11 | 8.21 | 2.02 | 4.23 – 6 |
| 2035 | 4.99 | 9.36 | 0.61 | 3.52 – 6.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.98· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed271.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 294.8bn | 323.3bn | 266.3bn | 285.7bn – 304bn |
| 2028 | 352.2bn | 401.5bn | 302.8bn | 326.1bn – 378.2bn |
| 2030 | 409.5bn | 473.2bn | 345.8bn | 363bn – 456bn |
| 2035 | 552.9bn | 642.9bn | 462.8bn | 438.2bn – 667.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead292.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.91 | 3.35 | 2.47 | 2.8 – 3.02 |
| 2028 | 2.77 | 3.54 | 2.01 | 2.52 – 3.02 |
| 2030 | 2.64 | 3.63 | 1.66 | 2.28 – 3 |
| 2035 | 2.31 | 3.7 | 0.91 | 1.72 – 2.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.26· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.29typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/POL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 63.69 | 2025 (1T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 38.7712 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.788 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.84 | 2023 (49.5) |
| 2027 | 3.75 | 2024 (54.8) |
| 2028 | -0.04 | 2025 (59.7) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 46.0971 + -0.7728·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.741 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 662.9bn | 2025 (2.98) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 766640914444.4122 + -34866330040.8765·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.57 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.47 | 2023 (49.5) |
| 2027 | -1.19 | 2024 (54.8) |
| 2028 | 0 | 2025 (59.7) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -14.4836 + 0.2426·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/POL?indicator= · API docs
