Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Puerto Rico (US): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Puerto Rico (US)'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.806 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 130.2bn | 2023 (5.73) |
Latest observed46.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.01 | 50.32 | 40.42 | 43.54 – 46.49 |
| 2028 | 41.27 | 50.46 | 33.31 | 37.98 – 44.57 |
| 2030 | 37.53 | 49.39 | 27.26 | 32.84 – 42.23 |
| 2035 | 28.18 | 44.95 | 13.65 | 21.28 – 35.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.61· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.85typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed129.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 133.3bn | 140.3bn | 127.3bn | 129.2bn – 137.5bn |
| 2028 | 143.2bn | 154bn | 133.9bn | 132.6bn – 153.8bn |
| 2030 | 153.1bn | 167bn | 141bn | 135.7bn – 170.5bn |
| 2035 | 177.8bn | 197.5bn | 160.8bn | 141bn – 214.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead137.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±106.4mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.51 | 6.64 | -4.79 | -0.52 – 1.55 |
| 2028 | 0.88 | 11.49 | -8.31 | -0.94 – 2.7 |
| 2030 | 1.25 | 12 | -10 | -1.14 – 3.63 |
| 2035 | 2.16 | 12 | -10 | -1.41 – 5.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.61typical miss · 1 realized · 614% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.9k | 44.1k | 40k | 40.6k – 43.2k |
| 2028 | 45.3k | 48.7k | 42.4k | 42k – 48.7k |
| 2030 | 48.7k | 53.1k | 44.9k | 43.2k – 54.2k |
| 2035 | 57.1k | 63.4k | 51.7k | 45.3k – 69k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±93.43typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.7 | 31.32 | 0 | 9.64 – 15.77 |
| 2028 | 2.91 | 35.15 | 0 | 0 – 8.01 |
| 2030 | 0 | 41.62 | 0 | 0 – 6.48 |
| 2035 | 0 | 58.86 | 0 | 0 – 9.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.5typical miss · 1 realized · 30% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.33 | 49.11 | 37.56 | 41.75 – 44.91 |
| 2028 | 42.84 | 52.84 | 32.84 | 39.26 – 46.43 |
| 2030 | 42.35 | 55.27 | 29.44 | 36.99 – 47.72 |
| 2035 | 41.13 | 59.39 | 22.87 | 31.76 – 50.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.9typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.47 | 6.38 | -3.8 | 0.35 – 2.58 |
| 2028 | 0.77 | 9.28 | -5 | -1.17 – 2.7 |
| 2030 | 0.07 | 11.06 | -5 | -2.45 – 2.58 |
| 2035 | -1.68 | 13.86 | -5 | -5 – 2.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.63typical miss · 1 realized · 53% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.9 | 18.21 | 10.16 | 13.06 – 14.73 |
| 2028 | 13.94 | 21.42 | 7.47 | 12.21 – 15.68 |
| 2030 | 13.99 | 23.64 | 5.63 | 11.49 – 16.49 |
| 2035 | 14.11 | 27.75 | 2.28 | 9.9 – 18.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.17typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2m | 3.3m | 3m | 3.1m – 3.3m |
| 2028 | 3.2m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.9m – 3.4m |
| 2030 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.8m – 3.5m |
| 2035 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 2.9m | 2.5m – 3.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.76 | 8.01 | -4.68 | -0.16 – 1.68 |
| 2028 | 1.68 | 14.24 | -7.74 | 0.03 – 3.33 |
| 2030 | 2.59 | 15 | -9.57 | 0.36 – 4.83 |
| 2035 | 4.89 | 15 | -10 | 1.24 – 8.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.37typical miss · 1 realized · 560% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.38 | 6.92 | 3.83 | 5.05 – 5.7 |
| 2028 | 4.14 | 6.82 | 1.46 | 3.53 – 4.75 |
| 2030 | 2.91 | 6.37 | 0 | 2.15 – 3.67 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.89 | 0 | 0 – 0.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.02typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PRI · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 130.9bn | 2024 (5.64) |
| 2028 | 128.4bn | 2025 (5.99) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 170445142609.7954 + -7021367306.3663·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.793 over 20 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.36 | 2023 (5.73) |
| 2027 | 18.02 | 2024 (5.64) |
| 2028 | 19.44 | 2025 (5.99) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -4.7296 + 4.0337·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.78 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.49 | 2025 (129.4bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 19.6664 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.684 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.06 | 2025 (129.4bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 6.0691 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PRI?indicator= · API docs
