Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
North Korea: forward projections across 2 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
No macro series leads another strongly enough in North Korea (over enough overlapping history) to nowcast it.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PRK?indicator= · API docs
Latest observed26.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.5m | 27.8m | 25.4m | 25.7m – 27.4m |
| 2028 | 26.6m | 27.9m | 25.5m | 24.7m – 28.6m |
| 2030 | 26.7m | 28m | 25.5m | 23.7m – 29.7m |
| 2035 | 26.9m | 28.2m | 25.7m | 21.3m – 32.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±98.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.52 | 3.74 | 3.3 | 3.41 – 3.63 |
| 2028 | 3.47 | 3.86 | 3.09 | 3.22 – 3.73 |
| 2030 | 3.42 | 3.92 | 2.93 | 3.04 – 3.81 |
| 2035 | 3.3 | 4.01 | 2.6 | 2.62 – 3.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PRK · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
