Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Portugal: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Portugal's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.802 over 37 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 134.3 | 2024 (313.7bn) |
Latest observed0.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.72 | 3.57 | -2.12 | 0.13 – 1.32 |
| 2029 | 1.17 | 6.09 | -3.76 | 0.11 – 2.23 |
| 2031 | 1.61 | 7.97 | -4.75 | 0.19 – 3.04 |
| 2036 | 2.73 | 11.72 | -6.27 | 0.45 – 5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.59· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.23 | 53.43 | 36.27 | 42.21 – 46.25 |
| 2028 | 45.38 | 61.31 | 31.58 | 40.93 – 49.84 |
| 2030 | 46.53 | 67.09 | 28.72 | 39.88 – 53.19 |
| 2035 | 49.41 | 78.48 | 24.22 | 37.35 – 61.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.82typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed346.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 401.5bn | 436.5bn | 371.2bn | 389.1bn – 414bn |
| 2029 | 454.2bn | 514.8bn | 401.7bn | 420.6bn – 487.8bn |
| 2031 | 506.9bn | 585.1bn | 439.1bn | 449.3bn – 564.4bn |
| 2036 | 638.5bn | 749.2bn | 542.7bn | 506.1bn – 771bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead401.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.52 | 5.21 | -1.67 | 0.89 – 2.16 |
| 2029 | 0.58 | 6.96 | -4.95 | -0.53 – 1.69 |
| 2031 | -0.37 | 7.87 | -7.5 | -1.82 – 1.09 |
| 2036 | -2.73 | 8.91 | -10 | -5.11 – -0.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.36· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 37.2k | 40.5k | 34.4k | 36k – 38.4k |
| 2029 | 41.7k | 47.4k | 36.9k | 38.6k – 44.8k |
| 2031 | 46.3k | 53.5k | 40k | 41k – 51.5k |
| 2036 | 57.6k | 67.9k | 48.7k | 45.7k – 69.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.33(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.91 | 5.01 | 0.67 | 2.35 – 3.48 |
| 2029 | 2.42 | 6.05 | 0 | 1.41 – 3.43 |
| 2031 | 2.18 | 6.86 | 0 | 0.85 – 3.5 |
| 2036 | 1.98 | 8.61 | 0 | 0.03 – 3.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.29· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 80.63 | 96.74 | 62.05 | 76.87 – 84.4 |
| 2029 | 70.7 | 98.59 | 38.52 | 63.02 – 78.39 |
| 2031 | 60.77 | 96.78 | 19.23 | 50.37 – 71.17 |
| 2036 | 35.95 | 86.87 | 0 | 22.36 – 49.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead82.02· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.09 | 51.8 | 34.37 | 41.06 – 45.11 |
| 2028 | 43.78 | 58.88 | 28.69 | 39.37 – 48.19 |
| 2030 | 44.48 | 63.96 | 24.99 | 37.93 – 51.02 |
| 2035 | 46.21 | 73.77 | 18.65 | 34.6 – 57.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.48 | 10.45 | -4 | 1.87 – 5.08 |
| 2029 | 4.55 | 16.63 | -5 | 1.65 – 7.44 |
| 2031 | 5.62 | 21.21 | -5 | 1.71 – 9.52 |
| 2036 | 8.29 | 30.35 | -5 | 2.07 – 14.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.48· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.88 | 10.43 | -5 | 1.15 – 4.6 |
| 2029 | 2.66 | 15.75 | -5 | -0.37 – 5.69 |
| 2031 | 2.58 | 19.48 | -5 | -1.37 – 6.54 |
| 2036 | 2.54 | 26.44 | -5 | -3.16 – 8.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.44· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.83 | 21.92 | 19.88 | 20.18 – 21.47 |
| 2028 | 21.22 | 22.86 | 19.8 | 19.65 – 22.79 |
| 2030 | 21.61 | 23.72 | 19.77 | 19.15 – 24.06 |
| 2035 | 22.58 | 25.57 | 19.98 | 17.89 – 27.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.11typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.7m | 11.2m | 10.2m | 10.4m – 11m |
| 2029 | 10.6m | 11.1m | 10.2m | 9.8m – 11.4m |
| 2031 | 10.6m | 11.1m | 10.1m | 9.4m – 11.8m |
| 2036 | 10.4m | 10.9m | 9.9m | 8.2m – 12.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.53 | 13.88 | -9.48 | -1.15 – 2.21 |
| 2028 | -0.15 | 15 | -10 | -3.09 – 2.78 |
| 2030 | -0.84 | 15 | -10 | -4.65 – 2.97 |
| 2035 | -2.55 | 15 | -10 | -8.23 – 3.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.56typical miss · 1 realized · 65% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.1bn | 20.9bn | 11.3bn | 15.1bn – 17.1bn |
| 2028 | 18.7bn | 27bn | 10.4bn | 16.5bn – 20.9bn |
| 2030 | 21.3bn | 32bn | 10.6bn | 17.9bn – 24.6bn |
| 2035 | 27.8bn | 43bn | 12.6bn | 21bn – 34.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.14(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.05 | 4.01 | 2.09 | 2.86 – 3.25 |
| 2027 | 2.95 | 4.61 | 1.28 | 2.55 – 3.35 |
| 2029 | 2.9 | 5.05 | 0.75 | 2.34 – 3.46 |
| 2034 | 2.86 | 5.89 | 0 | 1.93 – 3.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.18· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.9bn | 92.6bn | 59.1bn | 72.1bn – 79.6bn |
| 2028 | 93.8bn | 122.9bn | 64.8bn | 84.9bn – 102.8bn |
| 2030 | 111.8bn | 149.3bn | 74.3bn | 97.1bn – 126.5bn |
| 2035 | 156.7bn | 209.7bn | 103.7bn | 123.5bn – 189.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead72.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.79 | 6.41 | 5.16 | 5.6 – 5.97 |
| 2029 | 5.56 | 6.64 | 4.47 | 5.13 – 5.99 |
| 2031 | 5.33 | 6.73 | 3.93 | 4.69 – 5.97 |
| 2036 | 4.76 | 6.74 | 2.78 | 3.7 – 5.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.81· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PRT · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 145.28 | 2025 (346.6bn) |
| 2029 | 156.59 | 2026 (380.6bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 29.8926 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.761 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.25 | 2024 (93.5) |
| 2028 | -3.69 | 2025 (89.9) |
| 2029 | -4.21 | 2026 (85.6) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -14.5774 + 0.1211·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.642 over 64 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.18 | 2024 (313.7bn) |
| 2028 | -4.95 | 2025 (346.6bn) |
| 2029 | -6.78 | 2026 (380.6bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 13.6576 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.628 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 215.5bn | 2024 (93.5) |
| 2028 | 210.2bn | 2025 (89.9) |
| 2029 | 203.8bn | 2026 (85.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 77140820340.6086 + 1480202084.6486·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.602 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.48 | 2026 (85.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 1.864 + 0.0656·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PRT?indicator= · API docs
