Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Portugal: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Portugal's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.841 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 132.16 | 2023 (292.3bn) |
Latest observed0(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.37 | 4.33 | -1.6 | 0.74 – 1.99 |
| 2028 | 1.7 | 6.83 | -3.43 | 0.57 – 2.82 |
| 2030 | 2.03 | 8.65 | -4.59 | 0.51 – 3.54 |
| 2035 | 2.85 | 12.22 | -6.51 | 0.49 – 5.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.37typical miss · 1 realized
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.23 | 53.43 | 36.27 | 42.21 – 46.25 |
| 2028 | 45.38 | 61.31 | 31.58 | 40.93 – 49.84 |
| 2030 | 46.53 | 67.09 | 28.72 | 39.88 – 53.19 |
| 2035 | 49.41 | 78.48 | 24.22 | 37.35 – 61.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.82typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed346.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 365.7bn | 401.7bn | 334.6bn | 354.4bn – 377.1bn |
| 2028 | 412.9bn | 475.1bn | 358.9bn | 382.3bn – 443.4bn |
| 2030 | 460bn | 540.4bn | 390.4bn | 407.8bn – 512.2bn |
| 2035 | 577.9bn | 691.5bn | 479.4bn | 458bn – 697.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead395.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.5bntypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.88 | 12 | -9.26 | -0.29 – 4.05 |
| 2028 | 1.91 | 12 | -10 | -1.9 – 5.71 |
| 2030 | 1.93 | 12 | -10 | -3.01 – 6.87 |
| 2035 | 1.99 | 12 | -10 | -5.1 – 9.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.6k | 36.8k | 30.9k | 32.6k – 34.7k |
| 2028 | 37.5k | 43k | 32.7k | 34.7k – 40.2k |
| 2030 | 41.3k | 48.4k | 35.2k | 36.6k – 46k |
| 2035 | 50.9k | 61k | 42.2k | 40.4k – 61.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.85(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.29 | 5.41 | 1.02 | 2.72 – 3.87 |
| 2029 | 2.63 | 6.31 | 0 | 1.6 – 3.66 |
| 2031 | 2.31 | 7.05 | 0 | 0.95 – 3.66 |
| 2036 | 2.05 | 8.76 | 0 | 0.07 – 4.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.96· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.17 | 101.28 | 66.59 | 81.33 – 89.01 |
| 2028 | 76.12 | 104.01 | 43.94 | 68.18 – 84.06 |
| 2030 | 67.07 | 103.07 | 25.52 | 56.16 – 77.97 |
| 2035 | 44.43 | 95.35 | 0 | 29.49 – 59.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead81.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.07typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.09 | 51.8 | 34.37 | 41.06 – 45.11 |
| 2028 | 43.78 | 58.88 | 28.69 | 39.37 – 48.19 |
| 2030 | 44.48 | 63.96 | 24.99 | 37.93 – 51.02 |
| 2035 | 46.21 | 73.77 | 18.65 | 34.6 – 57.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.51 | 9.53 | -5 | 0.92 – 4.11 |
| 2028 | 2.4 | 14.55 | -5 | -0.41 – 5.21 |
| 2030 | 2.29 | 17.97 | -5 | -1.37 – 5.95 |
| 2035 | 2.01 | 24.18 | -5 | -3.23 – 7.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.69typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.2 | 10.78 | -4.93 | 1.46 – 4.93 |
| 2029 | 2.81 | 15.94 | -5 | -0.24 – 5.85 |
| 2031 | 2.67 | 19.62 | -5 | -1.3 – 6.64 |
| 2036 | 2.6 | 26.57 | -5 | -3.13 – 8.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.9· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.83 | 21.92 | 19.88 | 20.18 – 21.47 |
| 2028 | 21.22 | 22.86 | 19.8 | 19.65 – 22.79 |
| 2030 | 21.61 | 23.72 | 19.77 | 19.15 – 24.06 |
| 2035 | 22.58 | 25.57 | 19.98 | 17.89 – 27.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.11typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.8m | 11.3m | 10.3m | 10.4m – 11.1m |
| 2028 | 10.9m | 11.4m | 10.4m | 10.1m – 11.7m |
| 2030 | 11m | 11.5m | 10.5m | 9.8m – 12.3m |
| 2035 | 11.3m | 11.9m | 10.8m | 9m – 13.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.53 | 13.88 | -9.48 | -1.15 – 2.21 |
| 2028 | -0.15 | 15 | -10 | -3.09 – 2.78 |
| 2030 | -0.84 | 15 | -10 | -4.65 – 2.97 |
| 2035 | -2.55 | 15 | -10 | -8.23 – 3.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.56typical miss · 1 realized · 65% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.1bn | 20.9bn | 11.3bn | 15.1bn – 17.1bn |
| 2028 | 18.7bn | 27bn | 10.4bn | 16.5bn – 20.9bn |
| 2030 | 21.3bn | 32bn | 10.6bn | 17.9bn – 24.6bn |
| 2035 | 27.8bn | 43bn | 12.6bn | 21bn – 34.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.23 | 5.53 | 2.93 | 3.96 – 4.5 |
| 2028 | 3.64 | 5.89 | 1.39 | 3.12 – 4.16 |
| 2030 | 3.35 | 6.26 | 0.44 | 2.64 – 4.07 |
| 2035 | 3.12 | 7.24 | 0 | 1.99 – 4.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.98· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.67typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.9bn | 92.6bn | 59.1bn | 72.1bn – 79.6bn |
| 2028 | 93.8bn | 122.9bn | 64.8bn | 84.9bn – 102.8bn |
| 2030 | 111.8bn | 149.3bn | 74.3bn | 97.1bn – 126.5bn |
| 2035 | 156.7bn | 209.7bn | 103.7bn | 123.5bn – 189.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead72.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.06 | 6.68 | 5.44 | 5.87 – 6.25 |
| 2028 | 5.85 | 6.92 | 4.78 | 5.4 – 6.29 |
| 2030 | 5.63 | 7.02 | 4.25 | 4.97 – 6.3 |
| 2035 | 5.11 | 7.06 | 3.15 | 3.99 – 6.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.16typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PRT · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 139.92 | 2024 (313.7bn) |
| 2028 | 151.93 | 2025 (346.6bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 25.7131 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.763 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.94 | 2023 (96.9) |
| 2027 | -3.35 | 2024 (93.5) |
| 2028 | -3.81 | 2025 (89.7) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -14.6083 + 0.1204·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.67 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 215.2bn | 2023 (96.9) |
| 2027 | 210.4bn | 2024 (93.5) |
| 2028 | 204.9bn | 2025 (89.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 76742587887.3362 + 1429190722.0006·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.645 over 63 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.46 | 2023 (292.3bn) |
| 2027 | -3.64 | 2024 (313.7bn) |
| 2028 | -5.47 | 2025 (346.6bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 13.7653 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.606 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.8 | 2025 (89.7) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 1.9055 + 0.0657·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PRT?indicator= · API docs
