Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
West Bank and Gaza: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, West Bank and Gaza's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.682 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20.03 | 2022 (3.74) |
Latest observed21.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.12 | 26.27 | 18.51 | 21.17 – 23.06 |
| 2028 | 23.89 | 31.09 | 17.65 | 21.71 – 26.07 |
| 2030 | 25.66 | 34.96 | 17.61 | 22.28 – 29.05 |
| 2035 | 30.1 | 43.25 | 18.7 | 23.41 – 36.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.49typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.7bn | 20.2bn | 13.7bn | 16bn – 17.4bn |
| 2028 | 15.8bn | 21.8bn | 10.5bn | 14.3bn – 17.3bn |
| 2030 | 14.9bn | 22.7bn | 8.1bn | 12.7bn – 17bn |
| 2035 | 12.5bn | 23.6bn | 2.9bn | 9.2bn – 15.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.38 | 12 | -10 | -0.85 – 11.61 |
| 2028 | 8.32 | 12 | -10 | -2.72 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.26 | 12 | -10 | -3.37 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -9.34 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14.34typical miss · 1 realized · 330% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3k | 3.7k | 2.4k | 2.9k – 3.2k |
| 2028 | 2.7k | 3.9k | 1.6k | 2.4k – 3k |
| 2030 | 2.4k | 3.9k | 1k | 2k – 2.7k |
| 2035 | 1.5k | 3.7k | 0 | 1k – 2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±768.1typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.69 | 62.84 | 44.53 | 51.43 – 55.95 |
| 2028 | 53.99 | 69.85 | 38.14 | 48.98 – 59.01 |
| 2030 | 54.3 | 74.78 | 33.83 | 46.82 – 61.78 |
| 2035 | 55.07 | 84.03 | 26.12 | 41.83 – 68.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead53.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.17typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.12 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.83 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 24.57 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 37.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±40.19typical miss · 1 realized · 410% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.54 | 26.93 | 20.61 | 22.68 – 24.4 |
| 2028 | 22.68 | 28.55 | 17.59 | 20.76 – 24.61 |
| 2030 | 21.82 | 29.4 | 15.25 | 18.99 – 24.65 |
| 2035 | 19.67 | 30.39 | 10.38 | 14.99 – 24.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.55typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4m | 5.6m | 5.1m | 5.2m – 5.5m |
| 2028 | 5.5m | 5.8m | 5.3m | 5.1m – 5.9m |
| 2030 | 5.7m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5m – 6.3m |
| 2035 | 6m | 6.3m | 5.7m | 4.8m – 7.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±156.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-5.16(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -5.54 | 2.93 | -10 | -6.69 – -4.4 |
| 2025 | -6.87 | 7.8 | -10 | -9.04 – -4.71 |
| 2027 | -8.2 | 10.74 | -10 | -10 – -5.18 |
| 2032 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -5.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-6.11· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.6bn | 1.9bn – 2.1bn |
| 2028 | 2.5bn | 3.1bn | 1.9bn | 2.3bn – 2.7bn |
| 2030 | 3bn | 3.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.6bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 4.1bn | 5.3bn | 3bn | 3.3bn – 5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.98 | 2.42 | 1.54 | 1.88 – 2.08 |
| 2028 | 1.54 | 2.3 | 0.78 | 1.35 – 1.73 |
| 2030 | 1.32 | 2.3 | 0.34 | 1.07 – 1.58 |
| 2035 | 1.15 | 2.53 | 0 | 0.75 – 1.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.6bn | 1.9bn – 2.1bn |
| 2028 | 2.5bn | 3.1bn | 1.9bn | 2.3bn – 2.7bn |
| 2030 | 3bn | 3.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.6bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 4.1bn | 5.3bn | 3bn | 3.3bn – 5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.42(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24.27 | 26.28 | 22.25 | 23.52 – 25.02 |
| 2025 | 23.96 | 27.46 | 20.47 | 22.19 – 25.74 |
| 2027 | 23.66 | 28.17 | 19.15 | 20.97 – 26.35 |
| 2032 | 22.9 | 29.27 | 16.52 | 18.15 – 27.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.17· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PSE · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2024 | 17.19 | 2023 (5.87) |
| 2025 | -46.54 | 2024 (53.67) |
| 2026 | 11.94 | 2025 (9.81) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 25.0204 + -1.3334·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PSE?indicator= · API docs
