Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Pacific island small states: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Pacific island small states's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.803 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.11 | 2025 (13bn) |
Latest observed41.48(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41.29 | 56.77 | 27.87 | 38.41 – 44.16 |
| 2027 | 40.9 | 67.72 | 17.66 | 35.11 – 46.69 |
| 2029 | 40.52 | 75.13 | 10.51 | 32.33 – 48.7 |
| 2034 | 39.55 | 88.51 | 0 | 26.23 – 52.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.5bn | 15.2bn | 12.1bn | 13.1bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 14.9bn | 17.7bn | 12.4bn | 13.8bn – 16bn |
| 2030 | 16.2bn | 19.8bn | 13bn | 14.3bn – 18bn |
| 2035 | 19.5bn | 24.6bn | 15bn | 15.4bn – 23.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±375.9mtypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.94 | 12 | -7.21 | 0.94 – 4.94 |
| 2028 | 2.37 | 12 | -10 | -1.13 – 5.86 |
| 2030 | 1.8 | 12 | -10 | -2.71 – 6.31 |
| 2035 | 0.38 | 12 | -10 | -5.96 – 6.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.82typical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9k | 5.5k | 4.3k | 4.7k – 5k |
| 2028 | 5.2k | 6.3k | 4.3k | 4.9k – 5.6k |
| 2030 | 5.6k | 7k | 4.4k | 5k – 6.3k |
| 2035 | 6.6k | 8.5k | 4.9k | 5.2k – 7.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±121.65typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.67(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 66.45 | 78.32 | 54.58 | 63.57 – 69.33 |
| 2027 | 70.03 | 90.58 | 49.47 | 63.52 – 76.53 |
| 2029 | 73.6 | 100.14 | 47.06 | 63.65 – 83.55 |
| 2034 | 82.53 | 120.07 | 45 | 63.58 – 101.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead63.01· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.44 | 8.03 | -5 | -0.04 – 2.92 |
| 2028 | 0.01 | 11.42 | -5 | -2.57 – 2.59 |
| 2030 | -1.42 | 13.31 | -5 | -4.8 – 1.96 |
| 2035 | -4.99 | 15.84 | -5 | -5 – 0.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.52(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.67 | 24.36 | 21.21 | 21.97 – 23.37 |
| 2027 | 23.11 | 26.04 | 20.57 | 21.4 – 24.82 |
| 2029 | 23.55 | 27.33 | 20.27 | 20.87 – 26.22 |
| 2034 | 24.64 | 29.99 | 20.01 | 19.53 – 29.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.65· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7m | 2.9m | 2.6m | 2.7m – 2.8m |
| 2028 | 2.8m | 2.9m | 2.7m | 2.6m – 3m |
| 2030 | 2.8m | 3m | 2.7m | 2.5m – 3.1m |
| 2035 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.3m – 3.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±41.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.68 | 15 | -10 | -1.5 – 2.86 |
| 2028 | -0.64 | 15 | -10 | -4.44 – 3.15 |
| 2030 | -1.97 | 15 | -10 | -6.97 – 3.02 |
| 2035 | -5.29 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 2.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.44typical miss · 1 realized · 31% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.02(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.12 | 10.04 | 4.21 | 6.56 – 7.68 |
| 2027 | 7.24 | 12.29 | 2.2 | 6.12 – 8.36 |
| 2029 | 7.3 | 13.82 | 0.79 | 5.72 – 8.88 |
| 2034 | 7.35 | 16.56 | 0 | 4.76 – 9.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.05· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.56 | 3.78 | 3.34 | 3.45 – 3.67 |
| 2028 | 3.65 | 4.03 | 3.26 | 3.38 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.73 | 4.23 | 3.23 | 3.31 – 4.15 |
| 2035 | 3.94 | 4.65 | 3.24 | 3.13 – 4.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.55· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PSS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.4532 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.796 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.6bn | 2025 (3.52) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 30633858692.943 + -6258337270.4177·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PSS?indicator= · API docs
