Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Qatar: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Qatar's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.944 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.06 | 2025 (215.6bn) |
Latest observed7.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.72 | 30 | 0.78 | 14.76 – 22.68 |
| 2028 | 23.35 | 30 | -7.72 | 15.89 – 30 |
| 2030 | 27.98 | 30 | -12.13 | 17.55 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -26.72 | 13.62 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.62typical miss · 1 realized · 164% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.6(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 70.04 | 84.18 | 57.77 | 66.89 – 73.18 |
| 2025 | 72.91 | 97.42 | 51.67 | 65.91 – 79.91 |
| 2027 | 75.79 | 107.42 | 48.37 | 65.2 – 86.37 |
| 2032 | 82.97 | 127.71 | 44.2 | 63.31 – 102.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead68.01· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed215.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 214.2bn | 274.8bn | 161.7bn | 203.6bn – 224.8bn |
| 2028 | 213.9bn | 318.9bn | 122.9bn | 191.1bn – 236.6bn |
| 2030 | 213.6bn | 349.1bn | 96.1bn | 180.4bn – 246.8bn |
| 2035 | 212.8bn | 404.4bn | 46.7bn | 155.9bn – 269.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead210.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.72 | 9.5 | -1.28 | 2.7 – 4.75 |
| 2028 | 5.52 | 12 | -3.15 | 3.59 – 7.45 |
| 2030 | 7.32 | 12 | -3.87 | 4.58 – 10.05 |
| 2035 | 11.8 | 12 | -4.02 | 6.87 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-10· skill-weighted across models
Track record±19.32typical miss · 1 realized · 124% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.2k | 95.8k | 48k | 66k – 74.4k |
| 2028 | 65.6k | 110k | 27.2k | 57.2k – 74.1k |
| 2030 | 61.1k | 118.3k | 11.5k | 49.4k – 72.8k |
| 2035 | 49.6k | 130.5k | 0 | 32k – 67.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead63.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.11 | 56.99 | 22.79 | 38.01 – 44.21 |
| 2028 | 38.34 | 65.84 | 6.6 | 32.27 – 44.41 |
| 2030 | 35.56 | 71.07 | 0 | 27.26 – 43.87 |
| 2035 | 28.63 | 78.84 | 0 | 16.32 – 40.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.29typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.62(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30.84 | 38.5 | 23.18 | 29.17 – 32.5 |
| 2025 | 29.28 | 42.56 | 16.01 | 25.85 – 32.72 |
| 2027 | 27.73 | 44.86 | 10.6 | 22.89 – 32.57 |
| 2032 | 23.84 | 48.08 | 0 | 16.32 – 31.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.27(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.51 | 5.97 | -5 | -0.72 – 1.74 |
| 2028 | -0.42 | 9.03 | -5 | -2.57 – 1.72 |
| 2030 | -1.36 | 10.85 | -5 | -4.17 – 1.46 |
| 2035 | -3.69 | 13.57 | -5 | -5 – 0.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.09typical miss · 1 realized · 86% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9m | 3.2m | 2.7m | 2.8m – 3m |
| 2028 | 3.1m | 3.5m | 2.7m | 2.8m – 3.3m |
| 2030 | 3.2m | 3.8m | 2.7m | 2.8m – 3.6m |
| 2035 | 3.5m | 4.3m | 2.8m | 2.8m – 4.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±250.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.81 | 15 | -10 | -4.29 – 2.67 |
| 2028 | -0.72 | 15 | -10 | -6.77 – 5.34 |
| 2030 | -0.62 | 15 | -10 | -8.46 – 7.21 |
| 2035 | -0.39 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 10.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.36typical miss · 1 realized · 702% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.9bn | 47.4bn | 32.4bn | 38.1bn – 41.6bn |
| 2028 | 40.3bn | 53.3bn | 27.3bn | 36.3bn – 44.2bn |
| 2030 | 40.7bn | 57.4bn | 23.9bn | 34.8bn – 46.5bn |
| 2035 | 41.7bn | 65.4bn | 18bn | 31.4bn – 52bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.97 | 9.61 | 4.34 | 6.46 – 7.49 |
| 2028 | 6.41 | 10.97 | 1.85 | 5.4 – 7.41 |
| 2030 | 6.13 | 12.01 | 0.24 | 4.74 – 7.52 |
| 2035 | 5.9 | 14.23 | 0 | 3.69 – 8.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.73· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.2bn | 63.6bn | 52.9bn | 56.4bn – 60.1bn |
| 2028 | 64.3bn | 73.5bn | 55.1bn | 59.6bn – 69.1bn |
| 2030 | 70.4bn | 82.3bn | 58.5bn | 62.4bn – 78.4bn |
| 2035 | 85.6bn | 102.3bn | 68.8bn | 67.8bn – 103.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0 | 0.08 – 0.18 |
| 2028 | 0.12 | 0.32 | 0 | 0.07 – 0.17 |
| 2030 | 0.12 | 0.31 | 0 | 0.03 – 0.2 |
| 2035 | 0.11 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 – 0.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.13· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/QAT · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.8955 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.908 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 194.9bn | 2025 (0.13) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 224023443035.8314 + -223825981231.5603·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.749 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.54 | 2023 (16.8) |
| 2027 | 36.23 | 2024 (17.3) |
| 2028 | 36.79 | 2025 (16.4) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 47.039 + -0.6248·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.525 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.91 | 2023 (0.13) |
| 2027 | 1.91 | 2024 (0.13) |
| 2028 | 1.91 | 2025 (0.13) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 0.2684 + 12.6482·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/QAT?indicator= · API docs
