Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Romania: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Romania's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.888 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 67.28 | 2024 (382.6bn) |
Latest observed-6.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -7.13 | -3.67 | -10.59 | -7.95 – -6.31 |
| 2029 | -7.8 | -1.8 | -13.79 | -9.39 – -6.2 |
| 2031 | -8.46 | -0.72 | -16.2 | -10.72 – -6.2 |
| 2036 | -10.12 | 0.83 | -21.07 | -13.97 – -6.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-6.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.79 | 40.99 | 29.42 | 33.35 – 36.24 |
| 2028 | 33.41 | 44.15 | 24.1 | 30.27 – 36.55 |
| 2030 | 32.02 | 45.89 | 20.01 | 27.48 – 36.57 |
| 2035 | 28.57 | 48.18 | 11.57 | 21.19 – 35.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.98· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.44typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed428.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 512.7bn | 552.3bn | 478.3bn | 496.8bn – 528.6bn |
| 2029 | 593.3bn | 661.9bn | 533.8bn | 549.4bn – 637.2bn |
| 2031 | 673.9bn | 762.5bn | 597.1bn | 597.4bn – 750.4bn |
| 2036 | 875.3bn | 1T | 766.7bn | 693.8bn – 1.1T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead514.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.34 | 1.9 | -1.02 | 0.06 – 0.61 |
| 2029 | -0.59 | 2.12 | -2.93 | -1.09 – -0.09 |
| 2031 | -1.51 | 1.98 | -4.54 | -2.21 – -0.81 |
| 2036 | -3.82 | 1.12 | -8.09 | -5.25 – -2.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.13· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 27.4k | 29.6k | 25.5k | 26.6k – 28.3k |
| 2029 | 31.8k | 35.6k | 28.6k | 29.5k – 34.2k |
| 2031 | 36.3k | 41.1k | 32.1k | 32.2k – 40.4k |
| 2036 | 47.4k | 54.2k | 41.4k | 37.5k – 57.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 64.96 | 72 | 56.84 | 62.84 – 67.09 |
| 2029 | 71.09 | 83.29 | 57.02 | 65.8 – 76.38 |
| 2031 | 77.22 | 92.96 | 59.05 | 68.45 – 85.99 |
| 2036 | 92.54 | 114.8 | 66.85 | 73.34 – 111.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead63.91· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.32 | 47.57 | 33.06 | 38.56 – 42.07 |
| 2028 | 39.5 | 52.06 | 26.93 | 35.68 – 43.32 |
| 2030 | 38.67 | 54.9 | 22.45 | 33.1 – 44.25 |
| 2035 | 36.62 | 59.56 | 13.68 | 27.25 – 45.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.81typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.04 | 17.6 | -2.2 | 5.8 – 10.29 |
| 2029 | 8.9 | 25.46 | -5 | 4.8 – 13 |
| 2031 | 9.76 | 31.13 | -5 | 4.24 – 15.27 |
| 2036 | 11.89 | 42.12 | -5 | 3.29 – 20.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.87· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.2(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.02 | 16.12 | -0.65 | 6.1 – 9.95 |
| 2029 | 6.9 | 20.92 | -5 | 3.45 – 10.34 |
| 2031 | 6.49 | 24.6 | -5 | 1.96 – 11.02 |
| 2036 | 6.28 | 31.89 | -5 | -0.4 – 12.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.44· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.81 | 27.86 | 24.04 | 25.01 – 26.61 |
| 2028 | 26.38 | 29.92 | 23.3 | 24.42 – 28.33 |
| 2030 | 26.94 | 31.52 | 22.98 | 23.88 – 30 |
| 2035 | 28.36 | 34.83 | 22.75 | 22.48 – 34.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.08typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.7m | 19.6m | 17.9m | 18.1m – 19.3m |
| 2029 | 18.4m | 19.2m | 17.6m | 17m – 19.7m |
| 2031 | 18m | 18.9m | 17.2m | 16m – 20.1m |
| 2036 | 17.2m | 18m | 16.4m | 13.6m – 20.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.98 | 10.35 | -6.04 | -0.2 – 2.17 |
| 2028 | -0.29 | 15 | -10 | -2.37 – 1.78 |
| 2030 | -1.57 | 15 | -10 | -4.32 – 1.17 |
| 2035 | -4.76 | 15 | -10 | -9.23 – -0.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.24typical miss · 1 realized · 80% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed76.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 81.6bn | 94.2bn | 69bn | 78.4bn – 84.8bn |
| 2028 | 95.4bn | 117.1bn | 73.6bn | 87.5bn – 103.3bn |
| 2030 | 109.2bn | 137.3bn | 81.1bn | 96.2bn – 122.2bn |
| 2035 | 143.7bn | 183.4bn | 104bn | 113.9bn – 173.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead81.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.32 | 6.87 | 3.76 | 4.99 – 5.64 |
| 2028 | 5.07 | 7.76 | 2.37 | 4.41 – 5.72 |
| 2030 | 4.95 | 8.42 | 1.47 | 4.02 – 5.87 |
| 2035 | 4.85 | 9.77 | 0 | 3.32 – 6.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.64· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97.8bn | 112.2bn | 83.4bn | 94bn – 101.6bn |
| 2028 | 115.7bn | 140.6bn | 90.8bn | 106.4bn – 125.1bn |
| 2030 | 133.7bn | 165.8bn | 101.6bn | 118.1bn – 149.3bn |
| 2035 | 178.6bn | 224bn | 133.1bn | 141.5bn – 215.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead97.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.09 | 6.61 | 5.56 | 5.9 – 6.27 |
| 2029 | 6.26 | 7.16 | 5.35 | 5.79 – 6.72 |
| 2031 | 6.43 | 7.59 | 5.26 | 5.7 – 7.16 |
| 2036 | 6.86 | 8.5 | 5.21 | 5.43 – 8.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.06· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ROU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 73.85 | 2025 (428.7bn) |
| 2029 | 81.27 | 2026 (480.8bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 12.8469 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.765 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 379.2bn | 2026 (61.9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -4299236712.253 + 6195898502.6494·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.612 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 43.79 | 2026 (0.7) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 49.4659 + -8.1155·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.581 over 40 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.42 | 2025 (5.99) |
| 2028 | 1.43 | 2026 (6) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -10.3743 + 1.9676·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.56 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.02 | 2024 (57.5) |
| 2028 | 4.88 | 2025 (60.6) |
| 2029 | 4.82 | 2026 (61.9) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.6602 + -0.0458·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ROU?indicator= · API docs
