Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Romania: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Romania's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.87 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.4 | 2023 (347.8bn) |
Latest observed-7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.46 | -5.19 | -11.73 | -9.26 – -7.65 |
| 2028 | -9.57 | -3.91 | -15.24 | -11.19 – -7.96 |
| 2030 | -10.69 | -3.37 | -18 | -13.03 – -8.34 |
| 2035 | -13.47 | -3.13 | -23.81 | -17.74 – -9.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-7.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.46typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.79 | 40.99 | 29.42 | 33.35 – 36.24 |
| 2028 | 33.41 | 44.15 | 24.1 | 30.27 – 36.55 |
| 2030 | 32.02 | 45.89 | 20.01 | 27.48 – 36.57 |
| 2035 | 28.57 | 48.18 | 11.57 | 21.19 – 35.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.98· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.44typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed428.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 458.5bn | 497.8bn | 424.4bn | 444.3bn – 472.7bn |
| 2028 | 532.3bn | 600.5bn | 473.2bn | 492.9bn – 571.7bn |
| 2030 | 606.1bn | 694.2bn | 529.9bn | 537.3bn – 675bn |
| 2035 | 790.7bn | 915.2bn | 682.8bn | 626.7bn – 954.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead502.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.6bntypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.3 | 9.13 | -7.34 | -1.18 – 1.79 |
| 2028 | -0.56 | 12 | -10 | -3.15 – 2.04 |
| 2030 | -1.42 | 12 | -10 | -4.82 – 1.98 |
| 2035 | -3.57 | 12 | -10 | -8.79 – 1.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.8typical miss · 1 realized · 161% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.1k | 26.1k | 22.3k | 23.3k – 24.8k |
| 2028 | 28k | 31.5k | 24.9k | 25.9k – 30k |
| 2030 | 31.9k | 36.4k | 27.9k | 28.2k – 35.5k |
| 2035 | 41.6k | 48k | 36k | 33k – 50.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±657.24typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.18 | 70.8 | 54.4 | 61 – 65.37 |
| 2028 | 68.75 | 81.94 | 53.54 | 63.43 – 74.08 |
| 2030 | 74.32 | 91.34 | 54.69 | 65.76 – 82.89 |
| 2035 | 88.25 | 112.32 | 60.48 | 69.94 – 106.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead64.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.58typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.32 | 47.57 | 33.06 | 38.56 – 42.07 |
| 2028 | 39.5 | 52.06 | 26.93 | 35.68 – 43.32 |
| 2030 | 38.67 | 54.9 | 22.45 | 33.1 – 44.25 |
| 2035 | 36.62 | 59.56 | 13.68 | 27.25 – 45.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.81typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.21 | 17.89 | -2.16 | 5.93 – 10.49 |
| 2028 | 10.27 | 27.03 | -5 | 6.06 – 14.48 |
| 2030 | 12.32 | 33.97 | -5 | 6.54 – 18.11 |
| 2035 | 17.46 | 48.07 | -5 | 7.88 – 27.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.01typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.3 | 14.6 | -2.6 | 4.36 – 8.24 |
| 2029 | 6.1 | 20.47 | -5 | 2.62 – 9.58 |
| 2031 | 6.03 | 24.59 | -5 | 1.43 – 10.63 |
| 2036 | 5.99 | 32.24 | -5 | -0.78 – 12.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.49· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.81 | 27.86 | 24.04 | 25.01 – 26.61 |
| 2028 | 26.38 | 29.92 | 23.3 | 24.42 – 28.33 |
| 2030 | 26.94 | 31.52 | 22.98 | 23.88 – 30 |
| 2035 | 28.36 | 34.83 | 22.75 | 22.48 – 34.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.08typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19m | 19.9m | 18.2m | 18.4m – 19.6m |
| 2028 | 19m | 19.9m | 18.2m | 17.6m – 20.4m |
| 2030 | 19m | 19.9m | 18.1m | 16.8m – 21.1m |
| 2035 | 18.9m | 19.8m | 18m | 15m – 22.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±25.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.98 | 10.35 | -6.04 | -0.2 – 2.17 |
| 2028 | -0.29 | 15 | -10 | -2.37 – 1.78 |
| 2030 | -1.57 | 15 | -10 | -4.32 – 1.17 |
| 2035 | -4.76 | 15 | -10 | -9.23 – -0.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.24typical miss · 1 realized · 80% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed76.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 81.6bn | 94.2bn | 69bn | 78.4bn – 84.8bn |
| 2028 | 95.4bn | 117.1bn | 73.6bn | 87.5bn – 103.3bn |
| 2030 | 109.2bn | 137.3bn | 81.1bn | 96.2bn – 122.2bn |
| 2035 | 143.7bn | 183.4bn | 104bn | 113.9bn – 173.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead81.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.32 | 6.87 | 3.76 | 4.99 – 5.64 |
| 2028 | 5.07 | 7.76 | 2.37 | 4.41 – 5.72 |
| 2030 | 4.95 | 8.42 | 1.47 | 4.02 – 5.87 |
| 2035 | 4.85 | 9.77 | 0 | 3.32 – 6.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.64· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97.8bn | 112.2bn | 83.4bn | 94bn – 101.6bn |
| 2028 | 115.7bn | 140.6bn | 90.8bn | 106.4bn – 125.1bn |
| 2030 | 133.7bn | 165.8bn | 101.6bn | 118.1bn – 149.3bn |
| 2035 | 178.6bn | 224bn | 133.1bn | 141.5bn – 215.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead97.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.11 | 6.74 | 5.48 | 5.92 – 6.31 |
| 2028 | 6.35 | 7.44 | 5.26 | 5.88 – 6.82 |
| 2030 | 6.59 | 7.99 | 5.19 | 5.84 – 7.34 |
| 2035 | 7.19 | 9.17 | 5.21 | 5.7 – 8.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.39typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ROU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 67.37 | 2024 (382.6bn) |
| 2028 | 73.94 | 2025 (428.7bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 12.8076 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.717 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 346bn | 2025 (60.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 15860223468.4669 + 5465625633.4721·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.616 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.82 | 2025 (0.68) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 50.354 + -8.1592·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.585 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.11 | 2023 (52.6) |
| 2027 | 4.86 | 2024 (57.5) |
| 2028 | 4.71 | 2025 (60.4) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.791 + -0.051·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.581 over 39 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.24 | 2024 (5.4) |
| 2027 | 1.4 | 2025 (5.99) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -10.4095 + 1.9715·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ROU?indicator= · API docs
