Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Russia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Russia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.879 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.7 | 2025 (16.6) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed3.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.03 | 8.65 | -6.6 | -0.55 – 2.6 |
| 2028 | 0.08 | 13.29 | -13.14 | -2.67 – 2.82 |
| 2030 | -0.88 | 16.19 | -17.94 | -4.44 – 2.69 |
| 2035 | -3.25 | 20.88 | -27.38 | -8.69 – 2.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.78typical miss · 1 realized · 73% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.64 | 22.54 | 11.52 | 15.53 – 17.75 |
| 2028 | 13.5 | 23.73 | 4.64 | 11.4 – 15.61 |
| 2030 | 10.37 | 23.57 | 0 | 7.66 – 13.09 |
| 2035 | 2.54 | 21.21 | 0 | 0 – 5.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.52· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.9typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6T | 3.2T | 2.2T | 2.5T – 2.7T |
| 2028 | 2.9T | 3.8T | 2T | 2.6T – 3.1T |
| 2030 | 3.1T | 4.3T | 2T | 2.7T – 3.5T |
| 2035 | 3.6T | 5.3T | 2.1T | 2.8T – 4.4T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±226.5bntypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.33 | 12 | -10 | -1.72 – 2.39 |
| 2028 | -1.11 | 12 | -10 | -4.7 – 2.47 |
| 2030 | -2.56 | 12 | -10 | -7.32 – 2.2 |
| 2035 | -6.17 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.57typical miss · 1 realized · 63% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.1k | 21.8k | 14.8k | 17.3k – 18.8k |
| 2028 | 19.6k | 26.1k | 14k | 17.9k – 21.3k |
| 2030 | 21.2k | 29.5k | 13.9k | 18.5k – 23.8k |
| 2035 | 25k | 36.8k | 14.8k | 19.6k – 30.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.78 | 20.77 | 12.17 | 15.89 – 17.66 |
| 2028 | 17.13 | 24.05 | 9.15 | 15.24 – 19.02 |
| 2030 | 17.48 | 26.41 | 7.19 | 14.71 – 20.26 |
| 2035 | 18.37 | 30.99 | 3.8 | 13.49 – 23.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.71· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.52typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.74 | 19.67 | 9.81 | 13.75 – 15.73 |
| 2028 | 13.21 | 21.75 | 4.67 | 11.27 – 15.15 |
| 2030 | 11.68 | 22.7 | 0.66 | 9.06 – 14.3 |
| 2035 | 7.85 | 23.44 | 0 | 4.21 – 11.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.47typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.75 | 18.85 | -2.07 | 6.37 – 11.13 |
| 2028 | 9.15 | 26.64 | -5 | 4.83 – 13.47 |
| 2030 | 9.55 | 32.13 | -5 | 3.78 – 15.32 |
| 2035 | 10.55 | 42.48 | -5 | 1.78 – 19.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.65typical miss · 1 realized · 43% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.62 | 26.11 | 21.47 | 22.89 – 24.35 |
| 2028 | 24.93 | 29.23 | 21.2 | 23.08 – 26.77 |
| 2030 | 26.23 | 31.79 | 21.42 | 23.26 – 29.21 |
| 2035 | 29.5 | 37.36 | 22.69 | 23.38 – 35.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.34· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.46typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed143.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 143.6m | 150.4m | 137.3m | 139.1m – 148m |
| 2028 | 143.4m | 150.2m | 137.1m | 132.8m – 154m |
| 2030 | 143.3m | 150m | 137m | 127m – 159.5m |
| 2035 | 142.8m | 149.6m | 136.6m | 113.2m – 172.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead143.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±204.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.47 | 12.37 | -4.96 | 1.19 – 3.74 |
| 2028 | 4.01 | 15 | -8.85 | 1.68 – 6.35 |
| 2030 | 5.56 | 15 | -10 | 2.35 – 8.78 |
| 2035 | 9.44 | 15 | -10 | 4.01 – 14.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.56typical miss · 1 realized · 153% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed412.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 401.8bn | 473.9bn | 329.6bn | 384.3bn – 419.3bn |
| 2027 | 377.9bn | 502.9bn | 253bn | 340.7bn – 415.2bn |
| 2029 | 354.1bn | 515.4bn | 192.8bn | 301.1bn – 407.1bn |
| 2034 | 294.5bn | 522.6bn | 66.4bn | 212.5bn – 376.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead413.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.2 | 19.92 | 12.48 | 15.37 – 17.03 |
| 2027 | 15.5 | 21.94 | 9.06 | 13.77 – 17.23 |
| 2029 | 15.16 | 23.48 | 6.85 | 12.68 – 17.65 |
| 2034 | 14.89 | 26.65 | 3.13 | 10.71 – 19.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.71· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed608.4bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 611.5bn | 686.6bn | 536.4bn | 590.2bn – 632.8bn |
| 2027 | 623.7bn | 753.8bn | 493.6bn | 573.8bn – 673.5bn |
| 2029 | 635.9bn | 803.8bn | 467.9bn | 559.3bn – 712.5bn |
| 2034 | 666.4bn | 903.9bn | 428.9bn | 523.4bn – 809.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead611.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.41 | 1.84 | 0.99 | 1.33 – 1.5 |
| 2028 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 0 – 0.16 |
| 2030 | 0 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.23 |
| 2035 | 0 | 1.35 | 0 | 0 – 0.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.96· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.79typical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/RUS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.766 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.71 | 2024 (14.8) |
| 2027 | 4.88 | 2025 (16.6) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 3.2805 + 0.0966·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.745 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.85 | 2025 (16.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.6861 + 0.0702·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.742 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -11.13 | 2025 (2.13) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -27.4083 + 7.6331·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.738 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7T | 2023 (15.2) |
| 2027 | 1.7T | 2024 (14.8) |
| 2028 | 1.6T | 2025 (16.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1920443231823.6504 + -17139708112.9121·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.544 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.74 | 2025 (1.5) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -1.8624 + 0.7474·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/RUS?indicator= · API docs
