Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Rwanda: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Rwanda's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.706 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.53 | 2023 (61.6) |
Latest observed-10.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.98 | -2.42 | -15.53 | -10.46 – -7.49 |
| 2028 | -7.33 | 4.02 | -18.67 | -9.99 – -4.66 |
| 2030 | -5.68 | 8.98 | -20.33 | -9.12 – -2.23 |
| 2035 | -1.55 | 19.17 | -22.27 | -6.03 – 2.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-10.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.53typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.14 | 29.72 | 15.57 | 20.7 – 23.58 |
| 2028 | 23.3 | 36.43 | 11.93 | 20.31 – 26.3 |
| 2030 | 24.47 | 41.42 | 9.78 | 20.09 – 28.85 |
| 2035 | 27.39 | 51.36 | 6.61 | 19.58 – 35.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.38typical miss · 1 realized · 48% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.1bn | 18.6bn | 15.7bn | 16.5bn – 17.6bn |
| 2028 | 18.8bn | 21.6bn | 16.5bn | 17.5bn – 20.2bn |
| 2030 | 20.6bn | 24.2bn | 17.6bn | 18.3bn – 23bn |
| 2035 | 25.1bn | 30.1bn | 20.8bn | 19.9bn – 30.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6bntypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.09 | 12 | 1.72 | 8.32 – 11.86 |
| 2028 | 11.81 | 12 | -2.68 | 8.46 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -6.71 | 7.44 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.99 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.69typical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2k | 1.3k | 1.1k | 1.1k – 1.2k |
| 2028 | 1.2k | 1.4k | 1.1k | 1.1k – 1.3k |
| 2030 | 1.3k | 1.6k | 1.1k | 1.2k – 1.5k |
| 2035 | 1.5k | 1.9k | 1.2k | 1.2k – 1.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±135.27typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.18 | 76.6 | 56.32 | 64.66 – 69.71 |
| 2028 | 72.15 | 88.46 | 53.34 | 66.18 – 78.13 |
| 2030 | 77.12 | 98.18 | 52.83 | 67.71 – 86.53 |
| 2035 | 89.55 | 119.33 | 55.19 | 70.64 – 108.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead64.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.78typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.44 | 50.16 | 24.71 | 34.89 – 39.98 |
| 2028 | 42.07 | 64.11 | 20.02 | 36.67 – 47.46 |
| 2030 | 46.7 | 75.16 | 18.24 | 38.61 – 54.79 |
| 2035 | 58.28 | 98.53 | 18.04 | 42.8 – 73.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.9typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.01 | 34.29 | -5 | 3.27 – 14.76 |
| 2028 | 14.81 | 50 | -5 | 4.4 – 25.23 |
| 2030 | 20.61 | 50 | -5 | 6.44 – 34.79 |
| 2035 | 35.11 | 50 | -5 | 11.78 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.29typical miss · 1 realized · 27% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.98 | 42.41 | 24.8 | 31.1 – 34.85 |
| 2028 | 35.12 | 51.47 | 20.96 | 31.1 – 39.14 |
| 2030 | 37.27 | 58.37 | 18.98 | 31.27 – 43.27 |
| 2035 | 42.64 | 70 | 16.78 | 31.55 – 53.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.48typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.5m | 15.2m | 13.9m | 14m – 14.9m |
| 2028 | 14.8m | 15.5m | 14.2m | 13.7m – 15.9m |
| 2030 | 15.2m | 15.9m | 14.5m | 13.5m – 16.9m |
| 2035 | 16m | 16.8m | 15.3m | 12.7m – 19.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±19.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 15 | -10 | 2.16 – 11.85 |
| 2028 | 8.92 | 15 | -10 | 0.3 – 15 |
| 2030 | 10.84 | 15 | -10 | -0.61 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -2.36 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.47typical miss · 1 realized · 72% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1bn | 2.6bn | 1.5bn | 2bn – 2.2bn |
| 2028 | 2.3bn | 3.3bn | 1.3bn | 2.1bn – 2.6bn |
| 2030 | 2.6bn | 3.8bn | 1.3bn | 2.2bn – 3bn |
| 2035 | 3.2bn | 5bn | 1.3bn | 2.4bn – 3.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.18(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.21 | 5.59 | 2.83 | 3.93 – 4.49 |
| 2027 | 4.24 | 6.63 | 1.85 | 3.67 – 4.81 |
| 2029 | 4.25 | 7.34 | 1.17 | 3.44 – 5.07 |
| 2034 | 4.27 | 8.64 | 0 | 2.92 – 5.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.21· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1bn | 2.6bn | 1.5bn | 2bn – 2.2bn |
| 2028 | 2.3bn | 3.3bn | 1.3bn | 2.1bn – 2.6bn |
| 2030 | 2.6bn | 3.8bn | 1.3bn | 2.2bn – 3bn |
| 2035 | 3.2bn | 5bn | 1.3bn | 2.4bn – 3.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.84 | 15.18 | 6.5 | 10 – 11.68 |
| 2028 | 9.79 | 17.3 | 2.27 | 8.17 – 11.41 |
| 2030 | 8.74 | 18.44 | 0 | 6.55 – 10.92 |
| 2035 | 6.11 | 19.83 | 0 | 3.03 – 9.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.78· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/RWA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | -6.36 | 2024 (63.4) |
| 2028 | -6.24 | 2025 (64.7) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -12.2012 + 0.0921·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.693 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.2bn | 2023 (-5.1) |
| 2027 | 3.9bn | 2024 (-3.3) |
| 2028 | 8.6bn | 2025 (-9.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1494672797.9657 + -720446934.6492·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.541 over 59 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.44 | 2025 (9.38) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 11.4266 + -0.5319·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/RWA?indicator= · API docs
