Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
SAQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, SAQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.573 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.8 | 2024 (6.4) |
Latest observed-1.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.22 | 2.22 | -2.66 | -0.74 – 0.29 |
| 2028 | 0.13 | 4.36 | -4.09 | -0.78 – 1.04 |
| 2030 | 0.49 | 5.94 | -4.97 | -0.71 – 1.68 |
| 2035 | 1.37 | 9.08 | -6.34 | -0.42 – 3.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.98typical miss · 1 realized · 81% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.1T | 5.6T | 4.8T | 5T – 5.3T |
| 2028 | 5.6T | 6.4T | 5T | 5.2T – 6T |
| 2030 | 6.1T | 7.1T | 5.3T | 5.4T – 6.8T |
| 2035 | 7.3T | 8.7T | 6.1T | 5.8T – 8.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.4T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±54.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.65 | 12 | -2.49 | 5.58 – 9.72 |
| 2028 | 9.15 | 12 | -8.41 | 5.33 – 12 |
| 2030 | 10.64 | 12 | -10 | 5.43 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 3.92 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.25typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6k | 2.9k | 2.4k | 2.6k – 2.7k |
| 2028 | 2.8k | 3.3k | 2.5k | 2.6k – 3.1k |
| 2030 | 3.1k | 3.6k | 2.6k | 2.7k – 3.4k |
| 2035 | 3.6k | 4.3k | 2.9k | 2.8k – 4.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±19.3typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 81.25 | 88.51 | 72.88 | 78.73 – 83.77 |
| 2028 | 84.95 | 97.52 | 70.46 | 78.67 – 91.24 |
| 2030 | 88.65 | 104.88 | 69.94 | 78.59 – 98.72 |
| 2035 | 97.91 | 120.85 | 71.44 | 77.6 – 118.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead78.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.45typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.61 | 5.21 | -2.25 | 0.79 – 2.43 |
| 2028 | -3.29 | 2.95 | -5 | -4.83 – -1.75 |
| 2030 | -5 | 3.05 | -5 | -5 – -2.82 |
| 2035 | -5 | 6.39 | -5 | -5 – -1.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.79typical miss · 1 realized · 70% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9bn | 2bn | 1.8bn | 1.9bn – 2bn |
| 2028 | 1.9bn | 2bn | 1.9bn | 1.8bn – 2.1bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.1bn | 1.9bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2bn | 2.1bn | 1.9bn | 1.6bn – 2.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±24.2mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SAQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 77 | 2025 (2.9) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 81.3066 + -1.4851·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.564 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.97 | 2025 (-0.4) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 5.445 + -1.3011·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.501 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.35 | 2025 (79.4) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -8.8653 + 0.1072·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SAQ?indicator= · API docs
