Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Sudan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Sudan's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.739 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 148.19 | 2025 (-8.6) |
Latest observed-14.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.98 | 3.32 | -17.28 | -9.2 – -4.77 |
| 2028 | -3.75 | 14.09 | -21.59 | -7.57 – 0.07 |
| 2030 | -0.52 | 22.51 | -23.55 | -5.3 – 4.26 |
| 2035 | 7.57 | 30 | -25 | -0.29 – 15.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-14.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.62typical miss · 1 realized · 52% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 3.06 | 0 | 0 – 0.45 |
| 2028 | 0 | 5.29 | 0 | 0 – 0.8 |
| 2030 | 0 | 6.84 | 0 | 0 – 1.06 |
| 2035 | 0 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 – 1.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.7bn | 82.5bn | 45.6bn | 59.4bn – 66.1bn |
| 2028 | 70.2bn | 104.3bn | 40.6bn | 62.7bn – 77.6bn |
| 2030 | 77.6bn | 121.7bn | 39.4bn | 66.2bn – 89.1bn |
| 2035 | 96.2bn | 158.6bn | 42.2bn | 73.4bn – 119.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±31.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 103% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 6.09 – 12 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.52 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -1.75 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -8.01 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5typical miss · 1 realized · 71% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2k | 1.6k | 858.49 | 1.1k – 1.3k |
| 2028 | 1.3k | 2k | 723.51 | 1.2k – 1.5k |
| 2030 | 1.4k | 2.3k | 666.99 | 1.2k – 1.7k |
| 2035 | 1.7k | 3k | 640.55 | 1.3k – 2.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead580.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±605.98typical miss · 1 realized · 102% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed334.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 216.49 | 300 | 92.31 | 196.47 – 236.52 |
| 2028 | 240.68 | 300 | 25.59 | 200.45 – 280.92 |
| 2030 | 264.87 | 300 | 0 | 206.66 – 300 |
| 2035 | 300 | 300 | 0 | 199.64 – 300 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead300· skill-weighted across models
Track record±117.91typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 9.43 | 0 | 0 – 1.46 |
| 2028 | 0 | 16.34 | 0 | 0 – 2.55 |
| 2030 | 0 | 21.09 | 0 | 0 – 3.31 |
| 2035 | 0 | 29.83 | 0 | 0 – 4.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.28typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed138.81(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.7typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.12 | 7.7 | 0 | 0 – 1.22 |
| 2028 | 0 | 13.12 | 0 | 0 – 1.92 |
| 2030 | 0 | 16.94 | 0 | 0 – 2.5 |
| 2035 | 0 | 23.96 | 0 | 0 – 3.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.58typical miss · 1 realized · 216% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.5m | 54m | 49.3m | 49.9m – 53.1m |
| 2028 | 52.9m | 55.4m | 50.6m | 49m – 56.8m |
| 2030 | 54.2m | 56.8m | 51.8m | 48.1m – 60.4m |
| 2035 | 57.5m | 60.3m | 55m | 45.6m – 69.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±184.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-5.68(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -6.21 | -2.29 | -9.16 | -6.8 – -5.62 |
| 2025 | -7.6 | -0.8 | -10 | -8.81 – -6.38 |
| 2027 | -8.98 | -0.21 | -10 | -10 – -7.16 |
| 2032 | -10 | 2.41 | -10 | -10 – -6.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-6.31· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed177.9m(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 154.2m | 731.3m | 0 | 63.4m – 245m |
| 2020 | 93.2m | 1.1bn | 0 | 0 – 250.7m |
| 2022 | 32.3m | 1.3bn | 0 | 0 – 232.4m |
| 2027 | 0 | 1.8bn | 0 | 0 – 279.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead136.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.19(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 0.25 | 0.64 | 0 | 0.17 – 0.33 |
| 2020 | 0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 – 0.48 |
| 2022 | 0.36 | 1.24 | 0 | 0.15 – 0.58 |
| 2027 | 0.39 | 1.63 | 0 | 0.04 – 0.74 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.13· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed177.9m(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 154.2m | 731.3m | 0 | 63.4m – 245m |
| 2020 | 93.2m | 1.1bn | 0 | 0 – 250.7m |
| 2022 | 32.3m | 1.3bn | 0 | 0 – 232.4m |
| 2027 | 0 | 1.8bn | 0 | 0 – 279.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead136.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.53(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 40 | 7.2 | 34.34 – 40 |
| 2028 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 29.39 – 40 |
| 2030 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 25.58 – 40 |
| 2035 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 17.73 – 40 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40· skill-weighted across models
Track record±19.5typical miss · 1 realized · 33% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SDN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 112.0272 + -4.2047·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.705 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.46 | 2023 (66.6) |
| 2027 | 34.02 | 2024 (176.9) |
| 2028 | 24.55 | 2025 (99.9) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 12.2688 + 0.1229·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.625 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -11.11 | 2025 (204.4) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -3.242 + -0.0385·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.588 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23bn | 2023 (286.9) |
| 2027 | 23.5bn | 2024 (282.3) |
| 2028 | 31.4bn | 2025 (204.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 52252630992.6971 + -101984993.6946·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.585 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.22 | 2025 (204.4) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -11.9839 + 0.4218·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SDN?indicator= · API docs
