Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Sudan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Sudan's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.758 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 129.41 | 2026 (-4.5) |
Latest observed-4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.86 | 6.95 | -12.67 | -4.91 – -0.82 |
| 2029 | 0.41 | 17.4 | -16.58 | -3.1 – 3.93 |
| 2031 | 3.68 | 25.62 | -18.25 | -1.09 – 8.46 |
| 2036 | 11.87 | 30 | -19.15 | 3.64 – 20.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.42· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 3.06 | 0 | 0 – 0.45 |
| 2028 | 0 | 5.29 | 0 | 0 – 0.8 |
| 2030 | 0 | 6.84 | 0 | 0 – 1.06 |
| 2035 | 0 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 – 1.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 47.4bn | 71.8bn | 26.3bn | 43.7bn – 51.1bn |
| 2029 | 53.1bn | 95.4bn | 16.5bn | 45.5bn – 60.7bn |
| 2031 | 58.8bn | 113.4bn | 11.5bn | 47.6bn – 70bn |
| 2036 | 73.1bn | 150.3bn | 6.2bn | 52.2bn – 94bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.24 | 12 | -10 | -0.58 – 11.07 |
| 2029 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.48 – 12 |
| 2031 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -1.8 – 12 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -8.07 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 908.38 | 1.4k | 493.58 | 836.87 – 979.89 |
| 2029 | 998.23 | 1.8k | 279.78 | 851.63 – 1.1k |
| 2031 | 1.1k | 2.2k | 160.56 | 873.62 – 1.3k |
| 2036 | 1.3k | 2.8k | 0.99 | 922.48 – 1.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead879.58· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed169.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 170.29 | 268.79 | 56.63 | 152.41 – 188.17 |
| 2029 | 172.67 | 300 | 0 | 138.13 – 207.21 |
| 2031 | 175.05 | 300 | 0 | 127.16 – 222.94 |
| 2036 | 181 | 300 | 0 | 104.12 – 257.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead167.21· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 9.43 | 0 | 0 – 1.46 |
| 2028 | 0 | 16.34 | 0 | 0 – 2.55 |
| 2030 | 0 | 21.09 | 0 | 0 – 3.31 |
| 2035 | 0 | 29.83 | 0 | 0 – 4.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.28typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed138.81(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 1.62 – 50 |
| 2029 | 35.72 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2031 | 0.58 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2036 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.61· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.12 | 7.7 | 0 | 0 – 1.22 |
| 2028 | 0 | 13.12 | 0 | 0 – 1.92 |
| 2030 | 0 | 16.94 | 0 | 0 – 2.5 |
| 2035 | 0 | 23.96 | 0 | 0 – 3.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.58typical miss · 1 realized · 216% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 51.4m | 53.8m | 49.1m | 49.8m – 53m |
| 2029 | 51.5m | 53.9m | 49.2m | 47.6m – 55.3m |
| 2031 | 51.5m | 54m | 49.3m | 45.7m – 57.4m |
| 2036 | 51.7m | 54.5m | 49.1m | 41m – 62.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-5.68(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -6.21 | -2.29 | -9.16 | -6.8 – -5.62 |
| 2025 | -7.6 | -0.8 | -10 | -8.81 – -6.38 |
| 2027 | -8.98 | -0.21 | -10 | -10 – -7.16 |
| 2032 | -10 | 2.41 | -10 | -10 – -6.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-6.31· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed177.9m(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 154.2m | 731.3m | 0 | 63.4m – 245m |
| 2020 | 93.2m | 1.1bn | 0 | 0 – 250.7m |
| 2022 | 32.3m | 1.3bn | 0 | 0 – 232.4m |
| 2027 | 0 | 1.8bn | 0 | 0 – 279.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead136.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.19(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 0.25 | 0.64 | 0 | 0.17 – 0.33 |
| 2020 | 0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 – 0.48 |
| 2022 | 0.36 | 1.24 | 0 | 0.15 – 0.58 |
| 2027 | 0.39 | 1.63 | 0 | 0.04 – 0.74 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.13· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed177.9m(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 154.2m | 731.3m | 0 | 63.4m – 245m |
| 2020 | 93.2m | 1.1bn | 0 | 0 – 250.7m |
| 2022 | 32.3m | 1.3bn | 0 | 0 – 232.4m |
| 2027 | 0 | 1.8bn | 0 | 0 – 279.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead136.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.53(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 40 | 40 | 8.53 | 34.54 – 40 |
| 2029 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 29.74 – 40 |
| 2031 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 26.03 – 40 |
| 2036 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 18.37 – 40 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SDN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 110.3289 + -4.2409·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.641 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 36.65 | 2024 (185.7) |
| 2028 | 25.67 | 2025 (100.2) |
| 2029 | 22.45 | 2026 (75.1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 12.8053 + 0.1284·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.638 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -9.64 | 2026 (169.1) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.8594 + -0.0401·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.579 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 60.72 | 2026 (169.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -11.3816 + 0.4264·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.56 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 26.7bn | 2024 (262.6) |
| 2028 | 33.9bn | 2025 (187.6) |
| 2029 | 35.6bn | 2026 (169.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 51858250249.3545 + -95914037.646·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SDN?indicator= · API docs
