Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Senegal: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Senegal's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.774 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 126.22 | 2025 (37bn) |
Latest observed-6.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.16 | 10.43 | -12.74 | -3.54 – 1.23 |
| 2028 | -1.07 | 18.99 | -21.13 | -5.21 – 3.08 |
| 2030 | -0.98 | 24.92 | -26.88 | -6.35 – 4.39 |
| 2035 | -0.76 | 30 | -30 | -8.39 – 6.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-9.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.04typical miss · 1 realized · 81% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.42 | 41.23 | 26.65 | 31.77 – 35.07 |
| 2028 | 35.29 | 48.82 | 23.57 | 31.67 – 38.92 |
| 2030 | 37.16 | 54.63 | 22.02 | 31.69 – 42.63 |
| 2035 | 41.84 | 66.54 | 20.43 | 31.62 – 52.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.91· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.45typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39bn | 42.3bn | 36.2bn | 37.8bn – 40.2bn |
| 2028 | 44bn | 49.7bn | 39.1bn | 40.8bn – 47.3bn |
| 2030 | 49bn | 56.3bn | 42.7bn | 43.5bn – 54.6bn |
| 2035 | 61.6bn | 71.9bn | 52.6bn | 48.8bn – 74.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5bntypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.62 | 12 | 2.9 | 6.59 – 8.65 |
| 2028 | 9.71 | 12 | 1.53 | 7.67 – 11.75 |
| 2030 | 11.79 | 12 | 1.23 | 8.82 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -2.94 | 7.21 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.42typical miss · 1 realized · 246% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2k | 2.2k | 1.9k | 2k – 2.1k |
| 2028 | 2.2k | 2.5k | 2k | 2.1k – 2.4k |
| 2030 | 2.4k | 2.8k | 2.1k | 2.1k – 2.7k |
| 2035 | 2.9k | 3.5k | 2.4k | 2.3k – 3.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±23.79typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed132.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 137.56 | 152.22 | 120.64 | 133.1 – 142.02 |
| 2028 | 157.28 | 182.68 | 127.98 | 145.65 – 168.92 |
| 2030 | 177.01 | 209.79 | 139.18 | 156.91 – 197.1 |
| 2035 | 226.31 | 272.68 | 172.81 | 179.37 – 273.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead137.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.26typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.19 | 48.58 | 29.8 | 37.12 – 41.25 |
| 2028 | 40.4 | 56.67 | 24.14 | 35.98 – 44.83 |
| 2030 | 41.62 | 62.62 | 20.63 | 35.08 – 48.16 |
| 2035 | 44.66 | 74.35 | 14.97 | 32.97 – 56.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.28· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.62typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.22 | 11.18 | -5 | 0.2 – 4.25 |
| 2028 | 3.14 | 18.65 | -5 | -0.45 – 6.73 |
| 2030 | 4.06 | 24.08 | -5 | -0.71 – 8.82 |
| 2035 | 6.35 | 34.67 | -5 | -0.95 – 13.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.33· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.28typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.82 | 32.79 | 23.51 | 26.66 – 28.97 |
| 2028 | 25.64 | 34.26 | 18.17 | 23.18 – 28.1 |
| 2030 | 23.46 | 34.58 | 13.82 | 19.99 – 26.92 |
| 2035 | 18.01 | 33.74 | 4.37 | 12.88 – 23.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.75typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.8m | 19.7m | 18m | 18.2m – 19.4m |
| 2028 | 19.3m | 20.2m | 18.4m | 17.9m – 20.7m |
| 2030 | 19.8m | 20.7m | 18.9m | 17.5m – 22m |
| 2035 | 20.9m | 21.9m | 20m | 16.6m – 25.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.1m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±881.8ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.23 | 7.97 | 1.43 | 3.7 – 4.77 |
| 2028 | 6.82 | 13.29 | 1.97 | 5.69 – 7.96 |
| 2030 | 9.42 | 15 | 3.15 | 7.62 – 11.21 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | 6.14 | 11.12 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.47typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.58 | 3.03 | 2.13 | 2.47 – 2.69 |
| 2028 | 2.27 | 3.05 | 1.48 | 2.04 – 2.49 |
| 2030 | 1.95 | 2.97 | 0.94 | 1.64 – 2.26 |
| 2035 | 1.17 | 2.6 | 0 | 0.76 – 1.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.67· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SEN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -0.2298 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.759 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.3bn | 2025 (127.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 7109706096.6283 + 197336241.4755·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SEN?indicator= · API docs
