Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Solomon Islands: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Solomon Islands's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.905 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.04 | 2025 (1.43) |
Latest observed-3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.16 | 20.15 | -7.82 | 3.21 – 9.11 |
| 2028 | 7.29 | 30 | -16.94 | 1.99 – 12.58 |
| 2030 | 8.41 | 30 | -22.87 | 1.35 – 15.47 |
| 2035 | 11.22 | 30 | -30 | 0.4 – 22.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-6.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.36typical miss · 1 realized · 293% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.57(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 40.06 | 51.44 | 30.2 | 37.8 – 42.33 |
| 2027 | 39.05 | 58.75 | 21.97 | 34.36 – 43.74 |
| 2029 | 38.03 | 63.47 | 15.99 | 31.36 – 44.71 |
| 2034 | 35.5 | 71.46 | 4.33 | 24.68 – 46.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8bn | 2bn | 1.6bn | 1.7bn – 1.9bn |
| 2028 | 1.9bn | 2.2bn | 1.7bn | 1.8bn – 2.1bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.7bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 2.9bn | 1.8bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±68.3mtypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.23 | 9.83 | -0.63 | 3.23 – 5.23 |
| 2028 | 5.8 | 12 | -2.61 | 3.9 – 7.69 |
| 2030 | 7.36 | 12 | -3.49 | 4.69 – 10.04 |
| 2035 | 11.29 | 12 | -4.06 | 6.53 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.53typical miss · 1 realized · 57% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1k | 2.3k | 1.9k | 2k – 2.2k |
| 2028 | 2.1k | 2.5k | 1.8k | 2k – 2.3k |
| 2030 | 2.2k | 2.7k | 1.8k | 1.9k – 2.4k |
| 2035 | 2.3k | 3k | 1.7k | 1.8k – 2.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±189.36typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.22 | 37.03 | 26.68 | 30.97 – 33.48 |
| 2028 | 37.47 | 45.79 | 27.87 | 34.39 – 40.55 |
| 2030 | 42.72 | 53.46 | 30.33 | 37.65 – 47.79 |
| 2035 | 55.84 | 71.03 | 38.31 | 44.25 – 67.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.12typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 74.27 | 92.06 | 56.47 | 70.36 – 78.18 |
| 2027 | 81.23 | 112.06 | 50.41 | 72.62 – 89.85 |
| 2029 | 88.2 | 127.99 | 48.41 | 75.05 – 101.35 |
| 2034 | 105.62 | 150 | 49.34 | 80.1 – 131.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73.1· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.07 | 9.14 | -3.43 | 1.68 – 4.47 |
| 2028 | 1.73 | 12.25 | -5 | -0.68 – 4.15 |
| 2030 | 0.39 | 13.96 | -5 | -2.69 – 3.48 |
| 2035 | -2.96 | 16.23 | -5 | -5 – 1.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.03typical miss · 1 realized · 40% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.46(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18.9 | 24.65 | 13.92 | 17.78 – 20.03 |
| 2027 | 17.68 | 27.63 | 9.06 | 15.41 – 19.95 |
| 2029 | 16.47 | 29.31 | 5.33 | 13.31 – 19.62 |
| 2034 | 13.42 | 31.58 | 0 | 8.68 – 18.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed838.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 833.6k | 873k | 797k | 807.8k – 859.5k |
| 2028 | 855k | 895.4k | 817.5k | 791.8k – 918.3k |
| 2030 | 876.4k | 917.8k | 838k | 776.9k – 975.9k |
| 2035 | 929.9k | 973.8k | 889.1k | 737k – 1.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead827.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±20.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.61 | 7.58 | -2.87 | 0.84 – 2.38 |
| 2028 | 4.15 | 14.5 | -3.61 | 2.66 – 5.64 |
| 2030 | 6.69 | 15 | -3.33 | 4.48 – 8.89 |
| 2035 | 13.04 | 15 | -1.13 | 8.59 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.23typical miss · 1 realized · 45% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed680.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 687.2m | 793.7m | 580.7m | 659.9m – 714.5m |
| 2027 | 706.7m | 891.2m | 522.2m | 644.6m – 768.9m |
| 2029 | 726.3m | 964.5m | 488.1m | 631.8m – 820.9m |
| 2034 | 775.3m | 1.1bn | 438.4m | 599.7m – 950.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead685.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.18 | 13.34 | 5.02 | 8.4 – 9.96 |
| 2027 | 9.51 | 16.72 | 2.3 | 7.95 – 11.07 |
| 2029 | 9.67 | 18.98 | 0.37 | 7.47 – 11.87 |
| 2034 | 9.8 | 22.96 | 0 | 6.22 – 13.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.78· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed685.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 690.2m | 774.8m | 605.6m | 666.2m – 714.2m |
| 2027 | 704m | 850.5m | 557.5m | 647.8m – 760.2m |
| 2029 | 717.7m | 906.9m | 528.6m | 631.4m – 804.1m |
| 2034 | 752.2m | 1bn | 484.7m | 590.9m – 913.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead687.4m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.56 | 2.03 | 1.08 | 1.46 – 1.66 |
| 2028 | 1.81 | 2.64 | 0.99 | 1.6 – 2.03 |
| 2030 | 2.07 | 3.13 | 1.01 | 1.74 – 2.4 |
| 2035 | 2.71 | 4.21 | 1.21 | 2.05 – 3.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.5· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SLB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -6.4385 + 19.9031·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.858 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1bn | 2024 (1.44) |
| 2027 | 1.1bn | 2025 (1.43) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2034493226.2932 + -676788586.8778·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.844 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.72 | 2025 (29.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.5998 + 0.038·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.697 over 53 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.26 | 2023 (1.5bn) |
| 2027 | 1.77 | 2024 (1.6bn) |
| 2028 | 0.71 | 2025 (1.7bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 11.8469 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SLB?indicator= · API docs
