Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Solomon Islands: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Solomon Islands's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.845 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.69 | 2025 (28.7) |
Latest observed-4.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.09 | 7.58 | -15.76 | -6.54 – -1.64 |
| 2029 | -3.07 | 17.14 | -23.27 | -7.34 – 1.2 |
| 2031 | -2.05 | 24.04 | -28.13 | -7.53 – 3.44 |
| 2036 | 0.51 | 30 | -30 | -7.18 – 8.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-6.22· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.57(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 40.06 | 51.44 | 30.2 | 37.8 – 42.33 |
| 2027 | 39.05 | 58.75 | 21.97 | 34.36 – 43.74 |
| 2029 | 38.03 | 63.47 | 15.99 | 31.36 – 44.71 |
| 2034 | 35.5 | 71.46 | 4.33 | 24.68 – 46.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 2.1bn | 1.7bn | 1.8bn – 2bn |
| 2029 | 2.1bn | 2.4bn | 1.8bn | 1.9bn – 2.2bn |
| 2031 | 2.2bn | 2.6bn | 1.9bn | 2bn – 2.5bn |
| 2036 | 2.6bn | 3.2bn | 2.2bn | 2.1bn – 3.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.04 | 8.53 | -1.73 | 2.07 – 4 |
| 2029 | 3.65 | 12 | -4.6 | 1.89 – 5.41 |
| 2031 | 4.26 | 12 | -6.38 | 1.88 – 6.65 |
| 2036 | 5.8 | 12 | -9.26 | 1.97 – 9.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.25· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.3k | 2.6k | 2.1k | 2.2k – 2.4k |
| 2029 | 2.5k | 2.9k | 2.1k | 2.3k – 2.7k |
| 2031 | 2.6k | 3.2k | 2.1k | 2.3k – 2.9k |
| 2036 | 3k | 3.8k | 2.3k | 2.4k – 3.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.3k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 32.73 | 37.37 | 27.38 | 31.49 – 33.97 |
| 2029 | 38.39 | 46.43 | 29.12 | 35.31 – 41.47 |
| 2031 | 44.05 | 54.43 | 32.08 | 38.93 – 49.17 |
| 2036 | 58.2 | 72.87 | 41.27 | 46.13 – 70.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.03· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 74.27 | 92.06 | 56.47 | 70.36 – 78.18 |
| 2027 | 81.23 | 112.06 | 50.41 | 72.62 – 89.85 |
| 2029 | 88.2 | 127.99 | 48.41 | 75.05 – 101.35 |
| 2034 | 105.62 | 150 | 49.34 | 80.1 – 131.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73.1· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.25 | 8.47 | -2.35 | 2.04 – 4.45 |
| 2029 | 3.02 | 12.06 | -5 | 0.87 – 5.16 |
| 2031 | 2.78 | 14.46 | -5 | -0.03 – 5.6 |
| 2036 | 2.21 | 18.72 | -5 | -1.8 – 6.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.26· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.46(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18.9 | 24.65 | 13.92 | 17.78 – 20.03 |
| 2027 | 17.68 | 27.63 | 9.06 | 15.41 – 19.95 |
| 2029 | 16.47 | 29.31 | 5.33 | 13.31 – 19.62 |
| 2034 | 13.42 | 31.58 | 0 | 8.68 – 18.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed838.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 803.4k | 841.3k | 768.1k | 778.5k – 828.3k |
| 2029 | 775.2k | 821.6k | 732.1k | 717.8k – 832.5k |
| 2031 | 747k | 806.9k | 691.3k | 662.1k – 831.8k |
| 2036 | 676.4k | 761.2k | 597.7k | 536.1k – 816.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead827.4k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.61 | 7.58 | -2.87 | 0.84 – 2.38 |
| 2028 | 4.15 | 14.5 | -3.61 | 2.66 – 5.64 |
| 2030 | 6.69 | 15 | -3.33 | 4.48 – 8.89 |
| 2035 | 13.04 | 15 | -1.13 | 8.59 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.23typical miss · 1 realized · 45% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed680.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 687.2m | 793.7m | 580.7m | 659.9m – 714.5m |
| 2027 | 706.7m | 891.2m | 522.2m | 644.6m – 768.9m |
| 2029 | 726.3m | 964.5m | 488.1m | 631.8m – 820.9m |
| 2034 | 775.3m | 1.1bn | 438.4m | 599.7m – 950.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead685.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.18 | 13.34 | 5.02 | 8.4 – 9.96 |
| 2027 | 9.51 | 16.72 | 2.3 | 7.95 – 11.07 |
| 2029 | 9.67 | 18.98 | 0.37 | 7.47 – 11.87 |
| 2034 | 9.8 | 22.96 | 0 | 6.22 – 13.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.78· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed685.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 690.2m | 774.8m | 605.6m | 666.2m – 714.2m |
| 2027 | 704m | 850.5m | 557.5m | 647.8m – 760.2m |
| 2029 | 717.7m | 906.9m | 528.6m | 631.4m – 804.1m |
| 2034 | 752.2m | 1bn | 484.7m | 590.9m – 913.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead687.4m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.56 | 2.03 | 1.08 | 1.46 – 1.66 |
| 2028 | 1.81 | 2.64 | 0.99 | 1.6 – 2.03 |
| 2030 | 2.07 | 3.13 | 1.01 | 1.74 – 2.4 |
| 2035 | 2.71 | 4.21 | 1.21 | 2.05 – 3.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.5· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SLB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 1.74 | 2026 (29.9) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.6016 + 0.038·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.832 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.1bn | 2025 (1.43) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2073300005.983 + -686707331.5583·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.705 over 54 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.84 | 2024 (1.6bn) |
| 2028 | 0.8 | 2025 (1.7bn) |
| 2029 | 0.26 | 2026 (1.8bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 11.8292 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SLB?indicator= · API docs
