Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
El Salvador: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, El Salvador's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.94 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 32.5bn | 2024 (87.4) |
Latest observed-3.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.68 | 2.63 | -9.99 | -5.03 – -2.34 |
| 2029 | -4.45 | 6.48 | -15.38 | -6.89 – -2.01 |
| 2031 | -5.22 | 8.9 | -19.33 | -8.51 – -1.92 |
| 2036 | -7.13 | 12.83 | -27.09 | -12.35 – -1.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.9· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.66 | 40.16 | 26.17 | 31.07 – 34.26 |
| 2028 | 33.89 | 46.88 | 22.64 | 30.41 – 37.38 |
| 2030 | 35.13 | 51.89 | 20.6 | 29.92 – 40.33 |
| 2035 | 38.21 | 61.91 | 17.67 | 28.71 – 47.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.31typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 41.4bn | 45.2bn | 38.2bn | 40.1bn – 42.7bn |
| 2029 | 45.5bn | 52bn | 39.8bn | 42.1bn – 48.9bn |
| 2031 | 49.6bn | 58bn | 42.3bn | 44bn – 55.2bn |
| 2036 | 59.8bn | 71.7bn | 49.5bn | 47.4bn – 72.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.15 | 10.91 | -3.57 | 1.81 – 4.5 |
| 2029 | 2.7 | 12 | -8.93 | 0.34 – 5.07 |
| 2031 | 2.26 | 12 | -10 | -0.81 – 5.33 |
| 2036 | 1.13 | 12 | -10 | -3.13 – 5.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.62· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.4k | 7k | 5.9k | 6.2k – 6.6k |
| 2029 | 7k | 8k | 6.1k | 6.5k – 7.5k |
| 2031 | 7.6k | 8.9k | 6.4k | 6.7k – 8.4k |
| 2036 | 9k | 10.9k | 7.4k | 7.2k – 10.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 85.41 | 97.37 | 71.6 | 82.2 – 88.62 |
| 2029 | 87.23 | 107.95 | 63.31 | 79.85 – 94.6 |
| 2031 | 89.05 | 115.8 | 58.17 | 77.81 – 100.29 |
| 2036 | 93.59 | 131.43 | 49.93 | 72.8 – 114.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead85.06· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.67 | 67.62 | 47.73 | 55.23 – 60.12 |
| 2028 | 60.79 | 78.02 | 43.57 | 55.24 – 66.35 |
| 2030 | 63.91 | 86.15 | 41.67 | 55.39 – 72.43 |
| 2035 | 71.71 | 103.16 | 40.26 | 55.42 – 88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead57.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.95typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.55 | 9.24 | -2.54 | 2.24 – 4.87 |
| 2029 | 6.69 | 16.54 | -3.86 | 4.19 – 9.2 |
| 2031 | 9.83 | 22.55 | -3.79 | 6.23 – 13.44 |
| 2036 | 17.68 | 35.67 | -1.59 | 10.86 – 24.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.44· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.29 | 31.75 | 25.29 | 27.34 – 29.24 |
| 2028 | 31.35 | 37.34 | 26.15 | 28.99 – 33.71 |
| 2030 | 34.41 | 42.15 | 27.7 | 30.5 – 38.32 |
| 2035 | 42.06 | 53 | 32.58 | 33.34 – 50.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.53typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.1m | 6.2m – 6.6m |
| 2029 | 6.5m | 6.8m | 6.2m | 6m – 7m |
| 2031 | 6.6m | 6.9m | 6.3m | 5.8m – 7.3m |
| 2036 | 6.7m | 7.1m | 6.4m | 5.3m – 8.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.5m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.3 | 12.56 | -3.65 | 2.09 – 4.51 |
| 2028 | 4.9 | 15 | -7.13 | 2.66 – 7.14 |
| 2030 | 6.51 | 15 | -9.02 | 3.4 – 9.62 |
| 2035 | 10.52 | 15 | -10 | 5.17 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.98typical miss · 1 realized · 76% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9bn | 6.5bn | 3.3bn | 4.6bn – 5.2bn |
| 2028 | 5.7bn | 8.4bn | 2.9bn | 5bn – 6.4bn |
| 2030 | 6.5bn | 10bn | 2.9bn | 5.4bn – 7.6bn |
| 2035 | 8.5bn | 13.5bn | 3.5bn | 6.4bn – 10.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.52 | 3.54 | 1.49 | 2.32 – 2.72 |
| 2028 | 2.6 | 4.38 | 0.83 | 2.21 – 3 |
| 2030 | 2.64 | 4.94 | 0.35 | 2.08 – 3.21 |
| 2035 | 2.68 | 5.92 | 0 | 1.75 – 3.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.57· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.2bn | 6.8bn | 3.6bn | 4.9bn – 5.5bn |
| 2028 | 6.1bn | 8.9bn | 3.2bn | 5.3bn – 6.8bn |
| 2030 | 6.9bn | 10.6bn | 3.3bn | 5.8bn – 8.1bn |
| 2035 | 9.1bn | 14.3bn | 4bn | 6.9bn – 11.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.33 | 5.8 | 2.85 | 4.03 – 4.62 |
| 2029 | 4.39 | 6.94 | 1.83 | 3.79 – 4.99 |
| 2031 | 4.45 | 7.75 | 1.15 | 3.59 – 5.31 |
| 2036 | 4.6 | 9.26 | 0 | 3.15 – 6.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.4· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SLV · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 32.4bn | 2025 (87.2) |
| 2029 | 31.4bn | 2026 (84.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -1240794098.807 + 386273149.0041·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.939 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 104.91 | 2024 (34.9bn) |
| 2028 | 109.51 | 2025 (36.7bn) |
| 2029 | 117.39 | 2026 (39.8bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 17.0628 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.904 over 39 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.46 | 2026 (39.8bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 9.4319 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.702 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.5 | 2024 (3.26) |
| 2028 | -0.43 | 2025 (3.3) |
| 2029 | 1.11 | 2026 (4.3) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -5.5335 + 1.5449·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.513 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.49 | 2026 (2.5) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -3.9743 + 0.193·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SLV?indicator= · API docs
