Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
San Marino: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, San Marino's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.946 over 10 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 19.49 | 2026 (4.4) |
Latest observed17.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 19.77 | 28.13 | 11.42 | 17.75 – 21.8 |
| 2029 | 25.12 | 30 | 10.65 | 20.96 – 29.28 |
| 2031 | 30 | 30 | 11.31 | 23.79 – 30 |
| 2036 | 30 | 30 | 3.57 | 19.81 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.17· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed185.99(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 150 | 150 | 131.78 | 144.6 – 150 |
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 118.44 | 137.6 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 109.25 | 131.28 – 150 |
| 2033 | 150 | 150 | 92.38 | 116.5 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead150· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.5bn | 2.8bn | 2.3bn | 2.4bn – 2.6bn |
| 2029 | 2.8bn | 3.2bn | 2.4bn | 2.6bn – 3bn |
| 2031 | 3bn | 3.6bn | 2.5bn | 2.7bn – 3.4bn |
| 2036 | 3.7bn | 4.5bn | 3bn | 2.9bn – 4.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.4(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.68 | 8.02 | -5.68 | -0.56 – 1.92 |
| 2029 | -0.91 | 11.81 | -10 | -3.07 – 1.26 |
| 2031 | -2.49 | 12 | -10 | -5.43 – 0.44 |
| 2036 | -6.46 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -1.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.01· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.9k(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 72.9k | 80.7k | 66.2k | 70.6k – 75.2k |
| 2029 | 80k | 93.4k | 68.3k | 74.1k – 85.9k |
| 2031 | 87.1k | 104.4k | 72k | 77.2k – 97k |
| 2036 | 104.8k | 129.4k | 83.5k | 83.1k – 126.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73.6k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 78.73 | 93.02 | 62.25 | 75.27 – 82.19 |
| 2029 | 81.59 | 106.34 | 53.04 | 73.87 – 89.31 |
| 2031 | 84.45 | 116.4 | 47.59 | 72.78 – 96.12 |
| 2036 | 91.6 | 136.78 | 39.47 | 70 – 113.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead78.39· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed154.99(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 150 | 150 | 128.17 | 144.26 – 150 |
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 112.18 | 137.01 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 101.18 | 130.53 – 150 |
| 2033 | 150 | 150 | 80.95 | 115.43 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead149.66· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.02 | 8.56 | -2.91 | 1.74 – 4.3 |
| 2029 | 3.73 | 13.32 | -5 | 1.42 – 6.03 |
| 2031 | 4.43 | 16.82 | -5 | 1.33 – 7.53 |
| 2036 | 6.2 | 23.71 | -5 | 1.33 – 11.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.58· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.88(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16.5 | 21.15 | 12.47 | 15.57 – 17.43 |
| 2026 | 15.41 | 23.46 | 8.43 | 13.52 – 17.3 |
| 2028 | 14.31 | 24.71 | 5.3 | 11.68 – 16.95 |
| 2033 | 11.58 | 26.29 | 0 | 7.63 – 15.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.57· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 34k | 35.6k | 32.5k | 32.9k – 35k |
| 2029 | 33.8k | 35.4k | 32.4k | 31.3k – 36.3k |
| 2031 | 33.7k | 35.3k | 32.2k | 29.9k – 37.5k |
| 2036 | 33.4k | 35.5k | 31.5k | 26.5k – 40.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed861.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 897.8m | 1.2bn | 573.5m | 833.8m – 961.8m |
| 2028 | 988.5m | 1.6bn | 426.7m | 855.1m – 1.1bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 1.8bn | 354m | 881.9m – 1.3bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.3bn | 280.4m | 940.1m – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead889.2m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.89(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2.8 | 4.46 | 1.13 | 2.5 – 3.1 |
| 2026 | 2.68 | 5.56 | 0 | 2.11 – 3.25 |
| 2028 | 2.63 | 6.35 | 0 | 1.85 – 3.41 |
| 2033 | 2.58 | 7.84 | 0 | 1.37 – 3.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.03· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed861.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 897.8m | 1.2bn | 573.5m | 833.8m – 961.8m |
| 2028 | 988.5m | 1.6bn | 426.7m | 855.1m – 1.1bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 1.8bn | 354m | 881.9m – 1.3bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.3bn | 280.4m | 940.1m – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead889.2m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.07 | 5.23 | 2.91 | 3.83 – 4.31 |
| 2029 | 3.41 | 5.42 | 1.39 | 2.93 – 3.88 |
| 2031 | 2.74 | 5.34 | 0.14 | 2.13 – 3.36 |
| 2036 | 1.09 | 4.76 | 0 | 0.35 – 1.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.28· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SMR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 40.914 + -4.8684·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.927 over 8 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.2bn | 2025 (17.1) |
| 2028 | 2.2bn | 2026 (17.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1715626527.0895 + 30763702.6269·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.902 over 9 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.47 | 2026 (17.1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.156 + -0.157·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.647 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.8 | 2024 (4.4) |
| 2028 | 29.56 | 2025 (4.5) |
| 2029 | 28.8 | 2026 (4.4) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -4.3768 + 7.5409·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.535 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.49 | 2025 (2.3bn) |
| 2028 | -4.73 | 2026 (2.4bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 13.4276 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SMR?indicator= · API docs
