Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Somalia, Fed. Rep.: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 1990, 1992, 1994, 1999, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Somalia, Fed. Rep.'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.856 over 13 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -24.51 | 2025 (13bn) |
Latest observed-25.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -27.35 | -17.92 | -30 | -29.71 – -24.99 |
| 2028 | -30 | -13.67 | -30 | -30 – -25.23 |
| 2030 | -30 | -8.92 | -30 | -30 – -23.3 |
| 2035 | -30 | -0.19 | -30 | -30 – -19.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-27.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.95typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.9 | 39.25 | 25.52 | 30.33 – 33.46 |
| 2028 | 37.19 | 49.93 | 26.15 | 33.58 – 40.8 |
| 2030 | 42.48 | 58.93 | 28.23 | 36.74 – 48.23 |
| 2035 | 55.72 | 78.98 | 35.56 | 43.48 – 67.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.21· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.13typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.7bn | 14.4bn | 13bn | 13.2bn – 14.1bn |
| 2028 | 15.4bn | 16.6bn | 14.3bn | 14.2bn – 16.5bn |
| 2030 | 17.1bn | 18.6bn | 15.7bn | 15.1bn – 19bn |
| 2035 | 21.3bn | 23.5bn | 19.4bn | 16.9bn – 25.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.94 | 8.57 | -1.93 | 1.96 – 3.93 |
| 2028 | 2.91 | 12 | -5.54 | 1.15 – 4.67 |
| 2030 | 2.87 | 12 | -8.03 | 0.55 – 5.2 |
| 2035 | 2.79 | 12 | -10 | -0.62 – 6.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.64typical miss · 1 realized · 28% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed661.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 681.63 | 719.54 | 648.77 | 660.5 – 702.76 |
| 2028 | 733.75 | 799.42 | 676.84 | 679.47 – 788.03 |
| 2030 | 785.87 | 870.65 | 712.4 | 696.64 – 875.1 |
| 2035 | 916.18 | 1k | 812.27 | 726.13 – 1.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead885.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±168.26typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105.38 | 118.21 | 92.55 | 101.73 – 109.03 |
| 2028 | 118.51 | 140.73 | 96.28 | 109.42 – 127.6 |
| 2030 | 131.64 | 150 | 102.94 | 116.69 – 146.58 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 109.42 | 118.88 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead102.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.78typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.04 | 5.79 | 0.1 | 2.38 – 3.7 |
| 2028 | 0.52 | 5.28 | -4.58 | -0.58 – 1.62 |
| 2030 | -2 | 4.14 | -5 | -3.52 – -0.48 |
| 2035 | -5 | 3.68 | -5 | -5 – -2.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.26typical miss · 1 realized · 52% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.43 | 33.57 | 25.85 | 28.37 – 30.5 |
| 2028 | 33.03 | 40.2 | 26.82 | 30.42 – 35.64 |
| 2030 | 36.63 | 45.88 | 28.61 | 32.37 – 40.88 |
| 2035 | 45.62 | 58.7 | 34.27 | 36.15 – 55.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.39typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.5m | 20.4m | 18.6m | 18.9m – 20.1m |
| 2028 | 20.2m | 21.2m | 19.3m | 18.7m – 21.7m |
| 2030 | 20.9m | 21.9m | 20m | 18.5m – 23.3m |
| 2035 | 22.7m | 23.8m | 21.7m | 18m – 27.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.1 | 6.48 | -4.69 | -0.72 – 0.91 |
| 2028 | 1 | 12.05 | -7.29 | -0.43 – 2.43 |
| 2030 | 1.9 | 15 | -8.8 | -0.03 – 3.84 |
| 2035 | 4.16 | 15 | -10 | 0.97 – 7.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.01typical miss · 1 realized · 331% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.4m(1989)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 16.5m | 28.6m | 4.5m | 14.4m – 18.6m |
| 1992 | 19.6m | 40.4m | 0 | 15.5m – 23.7m |
| 1994 | 22.6m | 49.6m | 0 | 16.7m – 28.6m |
| 1999 | 30.3m | 68.4m | 0 | 19.6m – 41m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.1m(1989)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 24.2m | 36.5m | 11.9m | 21.9m – 26.5m |
| 1992 | 27.2m | 48.6m | 5.9m | 22.7m – 31.8m |
| 1994 | 30.3m | 57.8m | 2.7m | 23.6m – 36.9m |
| 1999 | 37.8m | 76.8m | 0 | 25.8m – 49.8m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.82 | 19.74 | 17.89 | 18.23 – 19.4 |
| 2028 | 18.55 | 19.46 | 17.64 | 17.18 – 19.92 |
| 2030 | 18.29 | 19.44 | 17.14 | 16.21 – 20.36 |
| 2035 | 17.63 | 19.25 | 16 | 13.97 – 21.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.88· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SOM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 13.3967 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.842 over 12 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.3bn | 2025 (-24.3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 6504507322.3667 + -280125420.1347·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.742 over 12 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.17 | 2025 (3.7) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 11.1031 + -1.6038·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.715 over 13 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.38 | 2023 (11bn) |
| 2027 | 6.99 | 2024 (12bn) |
| 2028 | 7.61 | 2025 (13bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -0.2309 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.708 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.94 | 2024 (4.11) |
| 2027 | 18.99 | 2025 (2.99) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 19.1286 + -0.0459·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SOM?indicator= · API docs
