Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
South Sudan: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2016, 2018, 2020, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2033, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, South Sudan's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.793 over 14 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6bn | 2025 (64.2) |
Latest observed8.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.02 | 30 | -30 | -17.72 – 13.68 |
| 2028 | 6.75 | 30 | -30 | -20.72 – 30 |
| 2030 | 15.51 | 30 | -30 | -20.77 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | -24.35 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.22typical miss · 1 realized · 125% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.65(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 30.78 | 69.59 | 0 | 24.74 – 36.81 |
| 2018 | 19.02 | 86.25 | 0 | 8.51 – 29.54 |
| 2020 | 7.27 | 94.06 | 0 | 0 – 20.25 |
| 2025 | 0 | 122.74 | 0 | 0 – 17.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.86· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12bn(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.1bn | 8.2bn | 2.5bn | 4.7bn – 5.6bn |
| 2028 | 4.4bn | 9.7bn | 0 | 3.5bn – 5.2bn |
| 2030 | 3.6bn | 10.5bn | 0 | 2.5bn – 4.7bn |
| 2035 | 1.7bn | 11.5bn | 0 | 250.1m – 3.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-10.79(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -0.16 – 12 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -9.31 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.8· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1k(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 410.64 | 692.65 | 166.24 | 370.5 – 450.79 |
| 2028 | 319.31 | 807.77 | 0 | 245.83 – 392.79 |
| 2030 | 227.98 | 858.57 | 0 | 134.67 – 321.29 |
| 2035 | 0 | 891.79 | 0 | 0 – 106.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead656.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±231.3typical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.97 | 100.54 | 11.01 | 51.63 – 66.31 |
| 2028 | 48.51 | 120.52 | 0 | 35.11 – 61.92 |
| 2030 | 38.06 | 131.01 | 0 | 20.71 – 55.4 |
| 2035 | 11.92 | 143.37 | 0 | 0 – 34.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±15.77typical miss · 1 realized · 37% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.9(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28.64 | 43.85 | 13.44 | 25.86 – 31.43 |
| 2018 | 28.13 | 54.47 | 1.8 | 22.75 – 33.51 |
| 2020 | 27.62 | 61.62 | 0 | 20.21 – 35.04 |
| 2025 | 26.35 | 74.42 | 0 | 14.77 – 37.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.12· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed91.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 31.44 – 50 |
| 2028 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 16.83 – 50 |
| 2030 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 6.28 – 50 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±22.4typical miss · 1 realized · 81% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.75(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 5.18 | 10.41 | 0.65 | 4.35 – 6.01 |
| 2018 | 3.48 | 12.54 | 0 | 2.02 – 4.94 |
| 2020 | 1.77 | 13.47 | 0 | 0 – 3.59 |
| 2025 | 0 | 16.55 | 0 | 0 – 2.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.1m | 12.6m | 11.5m | 11.7m – 12.4m |
| 2028 | 12.3m | 13.3m | 11.4m | 11.4m – 13.2m |
| 2030 | 12.6m | 13.9m | 11.4m | 11.2m – 14m |
| 2035 | 13.3m | 15.1m | 11.6m | 10.5m – 16m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±370.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 | 366.3m | 0 | 0 – 56.1m |
| 2027 | 0 | 634.5m | 0 | 0 – 97.1m |
| 2029 | 0 | 819.2m | 0 | 0 – 125.4m |
| 2034 | 0 | 1.2bn | 0 | 0 – 177.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.5m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.17(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.27 | 1.22 | 0 | 0.11 – 0.43 |
| 2026 | 0.39 | 2.02 | 0 | 0.1 – 0.69 |
| 2028 | 0.45 | 2.56 | 0 | 0.05 – 0.85 |
| 2033 | 0.5 | 3.47 | 0 | 0 – 1.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 | 366.3m | 0 | 0 – 56.1m |
| 2027 | 0 | 634.5m | 0 | 0 – 97.1m |
| 2029 | 0 | 819.2m | 0 | 0 – 125.4m |
| 2034 | 0 | 1.2bn | 0 | 0 – 177.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.5m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.37(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12.28 | 14.2 | 10.36 | 11.79 – 12.77 |
| 2026 | 12.1 | 15.42 | 8.77 | 11.01 – 13.19 |
| 2028 | 11.91 | 16.2 | 7.62 | 10.3 – 13.52 |
| 2033 | 11.45 | 17.52 | 5.38 | 8.69 – 14.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.63· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SSD · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 13522007047.6732 + -117024935.8995·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SSD?indicator= · API docs
