Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
SSQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, SSQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.797 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.75 | 2025 (13.5) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed-0.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.71 | 1.11 | -2.53 | -1.1 – -0.32 |
| 2028 | -0.33 | 2.83 | -3.48 | -1.02 – 0.37 |
| 2030 | 0.06 | 4.13 | -4.01 | -0.85 – 0.97 |
| 2035 | 1.02 | 6.77 | -4.74 | -0.32 – 2.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.09typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2T | 2.5T | 2T | 2.1T – 2.3T |
| 2028 | 2.2T | 2.7T | 1.7T | 2T – 2.4T |
| 2030 | 2.2T | 2.9T | 1.6T | 1.9T – 2.4T |
| 2035 | 2.1T | 3.1T | 1.3T | 1.7T – 2.6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.6T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±350.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.2 | 11 | 0.18 | 4.16 – 6.25 |
| 2028 | 6.81 | 12 | -1.88 | 4.81 – 8.81 |
| 2030 | 8.42 | 12 | -2.81 | 5.59 – 11.26 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -3.88 | 7.03 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.7typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7k | 2k | 1.5k | 1.7k – 1.8k |
| 2028 | 1.6k | 2.1k | 1.2k | 1.5k – 1.8k |
| 2030 | 1.5k | 2.1k | 1k | 1.3k – 1.7k |
| 2035 | 1.3k | 2.1k | 572.3 | 976.19 – 1.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±264.01typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.44 | 67.31 | 54.68 | 59.54 – 63.35 |
| 2028 | 66.13 | 76.29 | 54.41 | 61.24 – 71.03 |
| 2030 | 70.82 | 83.94 | 55.69 | 62.78 – 78.87 |
| 2035 | 82.55 | 101.09 | 61.15 | 65.43 – 99.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead59.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.74typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.63 | 18.31 | 0.33 | 7.55 – 11.71 |
| 2028 | -2.97 | 12.07 | -5 | -5 – 0.51 |
| 2030 | -5 | 14.42 | -5 | -5 – -0.3 |
| 2035 | -5 | 22.46 | -5 | -5 – 1.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.63typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.3bn |
| 2028 | 1.3bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.4bn |
| 2030 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn – 1.5bn |
| 2035 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.1bn – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±38.6mtypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-03 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SSQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.745 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.27 | 2025 (59.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 2.441 + 0.2341·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.505 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.02 | 2025 (-0.9) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 4.6461 + 0.6921·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SSQ?indicator= · API docs
