Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Sao Tome and Principe: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Sao Tome and Principe's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.831 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.62 | 2023 (690.5m) |
Latest observed-6.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.61 | 8.24 | -13.47 | -4.87 – -0.36 |
| 2028 | 0.76 | 19.57 | -18.05 | -3.13 – 4.64 |
| 2030 | 4.13 | 28.41 | -20.15 | -1.16 – 9.41 |
| 2035 | 12.56 | 30 | -21.78 | 3.54 – 21.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.49typical miss · 1 realized · 57% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.73 | 21.6 | 5.04 | 11.26 – 14.2 |
| 2028 | 11.67 | 27.03 | 0 | 8.91 – 14.42 |
| 2030 | 10.6 | 30.44 | 0 | 6.92 – 14.28 |
| 2035 | 7.94 | 35.99 | 0 | 2.66 – 13.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.06· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed981.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 978.6m | 1bn – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.3bn | 1.5bn | 1.1bn | 1.2bn – 1.4bn |
| 2030 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.7bn |
| 2035 | 2.2bn | 2.5bn | 1.8bn | 1.7bn – 2.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±44.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.15 | 3.14 | -0.58 | 0.8 – 1.5 |
| 2028 | 1.36 | 4.8 | -1.63 | 0.72 – 2 |
| 2030 | 1.57 | 6.01 | -2.28 | 0.7 – 2.43 |
| 2035 | 2.09 | 8.38 | -3.35 | 0.71 – 3.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.22· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.75typical miss · 1 realized · 187% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.4k | 4.9k | 4.1k | 4.3k – 4.6k |
| 2028 | 5.4k | 6.2k | 4.7k | 5k – 5.8k |
| 2030 | 6.3k | 7.3k | 5.4k | 5.6k – 7k |
| 2035 | 8.5k | 10k | 7.3k | 6.8k – 10.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±132.56typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.69 | 65.84 | 41.83 | 52.1 – 57.28 |
| 2028 | 45.87 | 65.18 | 23.6 | 40.7 – 51.05 |
| 2030 | 37.06 | 61.98 | 8.3 | 30.26 – 43.86 |
| 2035 | 15.02 | 50.26 | 0 | 7.19 – 22.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead53.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.21typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.75 | 43.69 | 15.82 | 27.15 – 32.36 |
| 2028 | 22.65 | 46.79 | 0 | 17.87 – 27.44 |
| 2030 | 15.55 | 46.71 | 0 | 9.54 – 21.57 |
| 2035 | 0 | 44.06 | 0 | 0 – 6.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.67· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.18 | 21.99 | -2.47 | 7.4 – 12.96 |
| 2028 | 5.56 | 26.01 | -5 | 0.76 – 10.36 |
| 2030 | 0.93 | 27.33 | -5 | -5 – 6.86 |
| 2035 | -5 | 32.33 | -5 | -5 – 4.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.82typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.44 | 11.41 | 5.86 | 7.88 – 9 |
| 2028 | 7.84 | 12.99 | 3.38 | 6.73 – 8.95 |
| 2030 | 7.25 | 13.9 | 1.48 | 5.72 – 8.78 |
| 2035 | 5.76 | 15.17 | 0 | 3.5 – 8.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.23· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed240.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 239k | 250.3k | 228.6k | 231.6k – 246.5k |
| 2028 | 244.2k | 255.8k | 233.5k | 226.2k – 262.3k |
| 2030 | 249.4k | 261.2k | 238.5k | 221.1k – 277.8k |
| 2035 | 262.4k | 274.8k | 250.9k | 208k – 316.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead248.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.91 | 5.31 | -5.58 | -1.71 – -0.12 |
| 2028 | -0.26 | 10.51 | -8.34 | -1.66 – 1.13 |
| 2030 | 0.39 | 14.3 | -10 | -1.43 – 2.21 |
| 2035 | 2.02 | 15 | -10 | -0.76 – 4.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.2typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.1m | 85m | 25.1m | 49.6m – 60.5m |
| 2027 | 47.6m | 99.6m | 0 | 37.4m – 57.9m |
| 2029 | 40.2m | 107.3m | 0 | 26.7m – 53.7m |
| 2034 | 21.6m | 116.5m | 0 | 3.7m – 39.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead59.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.72(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.98 | 5.22 | 0.73 | 2.58 – 3.37 |
| 2027 | 3.29 | 7.18 | 0 | 2.53 – 4.04 |
| 2029 | 3.44 | 8.46 | 0 | 2.39 – 4.48 |
| 2034 | 3.56 | 10.67 | 0 | 1.9 – 5.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.59· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.1m | 85m | 25.1m | 49.6m – 60.5m |
| 2027 | 47.6m | 99.6m | 0 | 37.4m – 57.9m |
| 2029 | 40.2m | 107.3m | 0 | 26.7m – 53.7m |
| 2034 | 21.6m | 116.5m | 0 | 3.7m – 39.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead59.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.01 | 9.51 | 8.51 | 8.73 – 9.29 |
| 2028 | 8.77 | 9.64 | 7.91 | 8.12 – 9.42 |
| 2030 | 8.53 | 9.65 | 7.42 | 7.57 – 9.5 |
| 2035 | 7.94 | 9.51 | 6.36 | 6.29 – 9.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.05· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/STP · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 2.38 | 2024 (825m) |
| 2028 | -0.23 | 2025 (981.3m) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 16.131 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.783 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 502.3m | 2025 (9.13) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1099987170.9885 + -65447684.2441·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.694 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.37 | 2024 (69) |
| 2027 | 2.24 | 2025 (59.1) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 1.422 + 0.0138·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.625 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -87.57 | 2023 (690.5m) |
| 2027 | -156.69 | 2024 (825m) |
| 2028 | -237 | 2025 (981.3m) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 267.1731 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.617 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.23 | 2023 (73.2) |
| 2027 | 10.08 | 2024 (69) |
| 2028 | 9.74 | 2025 (59.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 7.7223 + 0.0342·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/STP?indicator= · API docs
