Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Sao Tome and Principe: forward projections across 9 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.32 | 4.96 | -11.6 | -5.06 – -1.57 |
| 2029 | -0.55 | 13.79 | -14.9 | -3.53 – 2.42 |
| 2031 | 2.21 | 20.73 | -16.31 | -1.75 – 6.17 |
| 2036 | 9.12 | 30 | -17.07 | 2.32 – 15.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed822.2m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.3bn |
| 2029 | 1.5bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.7bn |
| 2031 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.6bn | 1.6bn – 2bn |
| 2036 | 2.5bn | 2.9bn | 2.2bn | 2bn – 3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.16 | 6.42 | 2.2 | 3.71 – 4.6 |
| 2029 | 5.89 | 9.81 | 2.49 | 4.95 – 6.82 |
| 2031 | 7.62 | 12 | 3.23 | 6.17 – 9.07 |
| 2036 | 11.94 | 12 | 5.74 | 8.84 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.1k | 5.6k | 4.7k | 5k – 5.3k |
| 2029 | 6.1k | 7k | 5.4k | 5.7k – 6.6k |
| 2031 | 7.2k | 8.2k | 6.2k | 6.3k – 8k |
| 2036 | 9.7k | 11.2k | 8.4k | 7.7k – 11.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 45.08 | 55.38 | 33.21 | 42.78 – 47.39 |
| 2029 | 34.45 | 52.28 | 13.88 | 30.05 – 38.85 |
| 2031 | 23.82 | 46.84 | 0 | 18.37 – 29.27 |
| 2036 | 0 | 32.55 | 0 | 0 – 5.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.35(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.43 | 32.85 | -5 | 10.11 – 18.74 |
| 2029 | 26.61 | 50 | -5 | 18.26 – 34.96 |
| 2031 | 38.79 | 50 | -5 | 26.55 – 50 |
| 2036 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 29.08 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed235.5k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 243.8k | 255.4k | 233.1k | 236.3k – 251.4k |
| 2029 | 249.3k | 261.1k | 238.4k | 230.9k – 267.8k |
| 2031 | 254.8k | 266.9k | 243.7k | 225.9k – 283.8k |
| 2036 | 268.6k | 281.3k | 256.8k | 212.9k – 324.3k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.36(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -1.45 | 4.88 | -6.21 | -2.27 – -0.64 |
| 2027 | -1.75 | 9.23 | -9.98 | -3.2 – -0.29 |
| 2029 | -2.04 | 12.13 | -10 | -3.97 – -0.1 |
| 2034 | -2.77 | 15 | -10 | -5.72 – 0.18 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.01 | 9.51 | 8.51 | 8.73 – 9.29 |
| 2028 | 8.77 | 9.64 | 7.91 | 8.12 – 9.42 |
| 2030 | 8.53 | 9.65 | 7.42 | 7.57 – 9.5 |
| 2035 | 7.94 | 9.51 | 6.36 | 6.29 – 9.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-06-22 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/STP · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
