Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Sweden: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Sweden's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.935 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 633.5bn | 2023 (32.2) |
Latest observed7.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.21 | 10.41 | 4 | 6.44 – 7.97 |
| 2028 | 8.22 | 13.77 | 2.67 | 6.69 – 9.74 |
| 2030 | 9.23 | 16.39 | 2.07 | 7.03 – 11.43 |
| 2035 | 11.76 | 21.89 | 1.63 | 7.81 – 15.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.09typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.68 | 61.49 | 48.77 | 52.83 – 56.52 |
| 2028 | 57.57 | 69.37 | 47.35 | 53.12 – 62.02 |
| 2030 | 60.47 | 75.7 | 47.27 | 53.45 – 67.48 |
| 2035 | 67.71 | 89.25 | 49.04 | 53.66 – 81.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead53.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.75typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed669bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 688.4bn | 782.8bn | 606.6bn | 666.2bn – 710.7bn |
| 2028 | 737.3bn | 900.8bn | 595.5bn | 682.4bn – 792.1bn |
| 2030 | 786.1bn | 997.2bn | 603.2bn | 696.8bn – 875.4bn |
| 2035 | 908.2bn | 1.2T | 649.5bn | 719.8bn – 1.1T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead769.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±56.7bntypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1 | 9.87 | -4.64 | 0.77 – 3.43 |
| 2028 | 3.25 | 12 | -8.42 | 0.85 – 5.65 |
| 2030 | 4.41 | 12 | -10 | 1.16 – 7.66 |
| 2035 | 7.3 | 12 | -10 | 2.03 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.4typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 64.7k | 73.9k | 56.8k | 62.6k – 66.9k |
| 2028 | 68.8k | 84.7k | 55k | 63.6k – 74k |
| 2030 | 72.9k | 93.4k | 55.1k | 64.6k – 81.2k |
| 2035 | 83.1k | 112.1k | 57.9k | 65.9k – 100.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead71.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.44 | 38.17 | 27.98 | 32.17 – 34.7 |
| 2028 | 31.31 | 39.51 | 21.86 | 28.55 – 34.08 |
| 2030 | 29.19 | 39.77 | 16.98 | 25.23 – 33.15 |
| 2035 | 23.88 | 38.84 | 6.61 | 17.75 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.66typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.62 | 60.36 | 44.88 | 50.6 – 54.65 |
| 2028 | 55.66 | 69.06 | 42.25 | 50.93 – 60.38 |
| 2030 | 58.69 | 76 | 41.38 | 51.35 – 66.03 |
| 2035 | 66.27 | 90.75 | 41.8 | 51.92 – 80.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.06typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.27 | 8.32 | -5 | -1.53 – 2.07 |
| 2028 | -2.75 | 11.19 | -5 | -5 – 0.47 |
| 2030 | -5 | 12.99 | -5 | -5 – -0.61 |
| 2035 | -5 | 20.45 | -5 | -5 – 1.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.54· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.83typical miss · 1 realized · 75% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.72 | 9.64 | -5 | -0.06 – 3.5 |
| 2029 | 2.41 | 16.14 | -5 | -0.75 – 5.57 |
| 2031 | 2.66 | 20.38 | -5 | -1.48 – 6.8 |
| 2036 | 2.79 | 27.85 | -5 | -3.21 – 8.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.42· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.2 | 26.53 | 24.06 | 24.42 – 25.99 |
| 2028 | 25.2 | 27.01 | 23.63 | 23.33 – 27.06 |
| 2030 | 25.19 | 27.53 | 23.17 | 22.33 – 28.05 |
| 2035 | 25.17 | 28.48 | 22.31 | 19.95 – 30.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.09typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.6m | 11.1m | 10.1m | 10.3m – 10.9m |
| 2028 | 10.6m | 11.1m | 10.1m | 9.8m – 11.4m |
| 2030 | 10.6m | 11.1m | 10.2m | 9.4m – 11.9m |
| 2035 | 10.7m | 11.2m | 10.2m | 8.5m – 12.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±177.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.08 | 10.78 | -4.44 | 0.96 – 3.2 |
| 2028 | 3.34 | 15 | -7.96 | 1.29 – 5.38 |
| 2030 | 4.59 | 15 | -9.99 | 1.79 – 7.39 |
| 2035 | 7.73 | 15 | -10 | 3.05 – 12.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.84typical miss · 1 realized · 56% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.4bn | 63.8bn | 49bn | 54.4bn – 58.4bn |
| 2028 | 56.5bn | 69.3bn | 43.6bn | 51.8bn – 61.1bn |
| 2030 | 56.5bn | 73.1bn | 40bn | 49.5bn – 63.6bn |
| 2035 | 56.7bn | 80.1bn | 33.3bn | 44bn – 69.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead57bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.22 | 2.66 | 1.78 | 2.12 – 2.32 |
| 2028 | 2.29 | 3.06 | 1.53 | 2.07 – 2.52 |
| 2030 | 2.33 | 3.31 | 1.35 | 1.99 – 2.67 |
| 2035 | 2.36 | 3.75 | 0.97 | 1.77 – 2.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.12· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed74.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76bn | 85.9bn | 66.2bn | 73.3bn – 78.8bn |
| 2028 | 81.1bn | 98.2bn | 64.1bn | 74.6bn – 87.6bn |
| 2030 | 86.3bn | 108.2bn | 64.3bn | 76bn – 96.5bn |
| 2035 | 99bn | 130.1bn | 68bn | 78.4bn – 119.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead76bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.72 | 10.21 | 7.23 | 8.35 – 9.09 |
| 2028 | 8.78 | 11.36 | 6.2 | 7.96 – 9.6 |
| 2030 | 8.84 | 12.17 | 5.5 | 7.62 – 10.05 |
| 2035 | 8.98 | 13.7 | 4.26 | 6.82 – 11.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SWE · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 615.2bn | 2024 (33.9) |
| 2028 | 608.8bn | 2025 (34.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 979463690166.6342 + -10745306095.0588·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.851 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.58 | 2025 (669bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 77.8139 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.68 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.25 | 2023 (8.55) |
| 2027 | 3.56 | 2024 (2.84) |
| 2028 | 4.81 | 2025 (0.68) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 5.2025 + -0.5794·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.656 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.06 | 2025 (8.69) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 9.4588 + -0.9655·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.619 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.61 | 2024 (604.8bn) |
| 2027 | 9.14 | 2025 (669bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.5997 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SWE?indicator= · API docs
