Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Seychelles: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Seychelles's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.627 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 2025 (51.2) |
Latest observed-8.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.19 | -0.54 | -15.85 | -9.88 – -6.5 |
| 2028 | -9.18 | 4.08 | -22.43 | -12.32 – -6.03 |
| 2030 | -10.16 | 6.96 | -27.27 | -14.46 – -5.85 |
| 2035 | -12.62 | 11.59 | -30 | -19.57 – -5.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-8.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.31typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed79.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.7 | 99.48 | 62.55 | 75.6 – 83.8 |
| 2028 | 79.86 | 114.13 | 50.16 | 71.13 – 88.59 |
| 2030 | 80.02 | 124.26 | 41.68 | 67.3 – 92.74 |
| 2035 | 80.42 | 142.98 | 26.19 | 58.61 – 102.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead79.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.05typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5bn | 3bn | 2bn | 2.4bn – 2.6bn |
| 2028 | 2.7bn | 3.7bn | 1.8bn | 2.5bn – 3bn |
| 2030 | 2.9bn | 4.2bn | 1.8bn | 2.5bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 3.5bn | 5.3bn | 1.9bn | 2.7bn – 4.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±108.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.77 | 12 | -4.97 | 4.41 – 9.14 |
| 2028 | 9.14 | 12 | -10 | 4.79 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.51 | 12 | -10 | 5.54 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.94 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.77typical miss · 1 realized · 577% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.9k | 24.5k | 15.9k | 19k – 20.8k |
| 2028 | 21.1k | 29k | 14.2k | 19.1k – 23k |
| 2030 | 22.2k | 32.5k | 13.3k | 19.2k – 25.2k |
| 2035 | 25.1k | 39.6k | 12.5k | 19.4k – 30.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±743.86typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.76 | 70.81 | 27.62 | 46.86 – 54.65 |
| 2028 | 49.87 | 84.61 | 9.79 | 42.14 – 57.61 |
| 2030 | 48.99 | 93.83 | 0 | 38.17 – 59.81 |
| 2035 | 46.78 | 110.19 | 0 | 29.54 – 64.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.94typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.79 | 107.12 | 78.47 | 89.12 – 96.47 |
| 2028 | 93.05 | 117.86 | 68.23 | 84.78 – 101.31 |
| 2030 | 93.3 | 125.33 | 61.26 | 80.93 – 105.67 |
| 2035 | 93.93 | 139.23 | 48.62 | 71.96 – 115.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead92.54· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.94typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.31 | 11.03 | -5 | -2.09 – 2.7 |
| 2028 | 0.29 | 18.86 | -5 | -3.88 – 4.45 |
| 2030 | 0.27 | 24.24 | -5 | -5 – 5.66 |
| 2035 | 0.22 | 34.12 | -5 | -5 – 7.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.21· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.59typical miss · 1 realized · 66% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.62 | 25.59 | 12.58 | 17.33 – 19.91 |
| 2028 | 18.19 | 30.25 | 7.73 | 15.59 – 20.78 |
| 2030 | 17.75 | 33.33 | 4.26 | 14.11 – 21.4 |
| 2035 | 16.67 | 38.7 | 0 | 10.86 – 22.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.48typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed122.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 121.7k | 133.4k | 110.8k | 117.9k – 125.5k |
| 2028 | 123.2k | 143.5k | 104.3k | 114.1k – 132.3k |
| 2030 | 124.7k | 150.9k | 100.4k | 110.6k – 138.9k |
| 2035 | 128.5k | 165.6k | 94.1k | 101.8k – 155.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead127.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed773.7m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 792.7m | 918m | 667.4m | 760.9m – 824.6m |
| 2027 | 848.2m | 1.1bn | 631.2m | 774.3m – 922.1m |
| 2029 | 903.7m | 1.2bn | 623.5m | 788.5m – 1bn |
| 2034 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 646.1m | 814.9m – 1.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead800.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.67(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.67 | 5.07 | 2.26 | 3.39 – 3.94 |
| 2027 | 3.66 | 6.09 | 1.24 | 3.12 – 4.21 |
| 2029 | 3.66 | 6.8 | 0.53 | 2.89 – 4.44 |
| 2034 | 3.66 | 8.09 | 0 | 2.4 – 4.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.65· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed773.7m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 792.7m | 918m | 667.4m | 760.9m – 824.6m |
| 2027 | 848.2m | 1.1bn | 631.2m | 774.3m – 922.1m |
| 2029 | 903.7m | 1.2bn | 623.5m | 788.5m – 1bn |
| 2034 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 646.1m | 814.9m – 1.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead800.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.56 | 4.99 | 0.14 | 2.15 – 2.98 |
| 2028 | 2.49 | 6.69 | 0 | 1.73 – 3.25 |
| 2030 | 2.41 | 7.84 | 0 | 1.39 – 3.44 |
| 2035 | 2.23 | 9.9 | 0 | 0.7 – 3.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.04typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SYC · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1924789274.0773 + -7300019.6349·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.609 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.16 | 2025 (2.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 165.6295 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.573 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.45 | 2025 (2.4bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 5.5398 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SYC?indicator= · API docs
