Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Chad: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 1995, 1997, 1999, 2004, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Chad's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.771 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.18 | 2023 (18.4bn) |
Latest observed1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.17 | 6.63 | -6.28 | -1.16 – 1.51 |
| 2028 | 1.72 | 12.9 | -9.47 | -0.65 – 4.08 |
| 2030 | 3.26 | 17.7 | -11.17 | 0.06 – 6.47 |
| 2035 | 7.13 | 27.54 | -13.29 | 1.82 – 12.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.13typical miss · 1 realized · 87% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.22 | 37.28 | 24.1 | 28.73 – 31.71 |
| 2028 | 31.82 | 44.05 | 21.23 | 28.55 – 35.1 |
| 2030 | 33.43 | 49.22 | 19.75 | 28.5 – 38.36 |
| 2035 | 37.45 | 59.77 | 18.1 | 28.27 – 46.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.41typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.4bn | 24.1bn | 20.9bn | 21.7bn – 23.1bn |
| 2028 | 24.6bn | 27.6bn | 22.1bn | 22.8bn – 26.4bn |
| 2030 | 26.9bn | 30.7bn | 23.6bn | 23.8bn – 29.9bn |
| 2035 | 32.5bn | 37.9bn | 27.8bn | 25.8bn – 39.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.42 | 9.29 | 3.93 | 5.83 – 7 |
| 2028 | 8.35 | 12 | 4.04 | 7.12 – 9.58 |
| 2030 | 10.29 | 12 | 4.72 | 8.4 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | 4.12 | 8.57 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.92typical miss · 1 realized · 43% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1k | 1.1k | 958.01 | 1k – 1.1k |
| 2028 | 1.1k | 1.2k | 936.83 | 991.42 – 1.1k |
| 2030 | 1.1k | 1.3k | 933.26 | 980.41 – 1.2k |
| 2035 | 1.2k | 1.5k | 950.12 | 946.63 – 1.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±259.56typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.43 | 39.91 | 23.81 | 30.77 – 34.1 |
| 2028 | 30.7 | 43.65 | 15.76 | 27.24 – 34.17 |
| 2030 | 28.97 | 45.69 | 9.69 | 24.08 – 33.86 |
| 2035 | 24.65 | 48.29 | 0 | 17.07 – 32.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.33typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.01 | 18.54 | 13.48 | 15.37 – 16.65 |
| 2028 | 14.59 | 18.97 | 10.21 | 13.22 – 15.96 |
| 2030 | 13.17 | 18.83 | 7.51 | 11.25 – 15.09 |
| 2035 | 9.62 | 17.62 | 1.62 | 6.86 – 12.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.81typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-3.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 9.35 | -5 | -5 – -1.74 |
| 2028 | -5 | 19.85 | -5 | -5 – 0.75 |
| 2030 | -5 | 27.08 | -5 | -5 – 2.51 |
| 2035 | -5 | 40.37 | -5 | -5 – 5.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.3typical miss · 1 realized · 614% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.49 | 20.23 | 13.25 | 15.69 – 17.28 |
| 2028 | 16.62 | 23.1 | 11.01 | 14.9 – 18.35 |
| 2030 | 16.76 | 25.12 | 9.51 | 14.22 – 19.29 |
| 2035 | 17.1 | 28.92 | 6.85 | 12.68 – 21.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.68typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.8m | 21.7m | 19.8m | 20.1m – 21.4m |
| 2028 | 21.5m | 22.5m | 20.6m | 19.9m – 23.1m |
| 2030 | 22.3m | 23.4m | 21.3m | 19.8m – 24.8m |
| 2035 | 24.2m | 25.4m | 23.2m | 19.2m – 29.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.3mtypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.57 | 8.14 | -1.6 | 1.84 – 3.31 |
| 2028 | 3.88 | 13.52 | -3.35 | 2.49 – 5.27 |
| 2030 | 5.19 | 15 | -4.15 | 3.22 – 7.16 |
| 2035 | 8.45 | 15 | -4.75 | 4.9 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.01typical miss · 1 realized · 189% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.8bn | 2.4bn | 1.2bn | 1.7bn – 1.9bn |
| 2027 | 2.5bn | 3.5bn | 1.4bn | 2.2bn – 2.7bn |
| 2029 | 3.1bn | 4.4bn | 1.8bn | 2.7bn – 3.6bn |
| 2034 | 4.7bn | 6.6bn | 2.9bn | 3.7bn – 5.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.27(1994)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 2.19 | 3.85 | 0.53 | 1.9 – 2.48 |
| 1997 | 2.1 | 4.97 | 0 | 1.56 – 2.64 |
| 1999 | 2.05 | 5.77 | 0 | 1.32 – 2.79 |
| 2004 | 2.02 | 7.27 | 0 | 0.89 – 3.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.8bn | 2.4bn | 1.2bn | 1.7bn – 1.9bn |
| 2027 | 2.5bn | 3.5bn | 1.4bn | 2.2bn – 2.7bn |
| 2029 | 3.1bn | 4.4bn | 1.8bn | 2.7bn – 3.6bn |
| 2034 | 4.7bn | 6.6bn | 2.9bn | 3.7bn – 5.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.92 | 1.26 | 0.59 | 0.86 – 0.99 |
| 2028 | 0.66 | 1.24 | 0.08 | 0.52 – 0.8 |
| 2030 | 0.39 | 1.15 | 0 | 0.2 – 0.59 |
| 2035 | 0 | 1.07 | 0 | 0 – 0.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.99· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TCD · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 1.22 | 2024 (19.9bn) |
| 2028 | 1.26 | 2025 (21.5bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.6851 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.697 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.3bn | 2025 (1.06) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -8682768159.9332 + 20793801646.1084·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.572 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.38 | 2024 (31.4) |
| 2027 | -7.98 | 2025 (33.3) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 20.0909 + -0.8429·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.554 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.63 | 2024 (1.4) |
| 2027 | 3.41 | 2025 (-0.6) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 3.1789 + -0.3907·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TCD?indicator= · API docs
