Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
East Asia & Pacific (IDA & IBRD countries): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, East Asia & Pacific (IDA & IBRD countries)'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.626 over 9 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.37 | 2024 (3.92) |
Latest observed25.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.96 | 28.17 | 24.04 | 25.15 – 26.76 |
| 2028 | 26.83 | 30.66 | 23.51 | 24.84 – 28.81 |
| 2030 | 27.7 | 32.65 | 23.41 | 24.56 – 30.85 |
| 2035 | 29.89 | 36.88 | 23.82 | 23.69 – 36.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.91· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.32typical miss · 25 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.2T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.8T | 26T | 21.8T | 23T – 24.5T |
| 2028 | 25.2T | 29.1T | 21.8T | 23.3T – 27.1T |
| 2030 | 26.6T | 31.6T | 22.3T | 23.6T – 29.7T |
| 2035 | 30.2T | 37.3T | 24.1T | 24T – 36.5T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.3Ttypical miss · 25 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.95 | 12 | -1.27 | 3.68 – 6.23 |
| 2028 | 5 | 12 | -5.78 | 2.69 – 7.32 |
| 2030 | 5.06 | 12 | -8.86 | 1.98 – 8.14 |
| 2035 | 5.19 | 12 | -10 | 0.57 – 9.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.49typical miss · 25 realized · 121% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.2k | 12.3k | 10.3k | 10.9k – 11.6k |
| 2028 | 11.9k | 13.7k | 10.3k | 11k – 12.7k |
| 2030 | 12.5k | 14.9k | 10.4k | 11.1k – 13.9k |
| 2035 | 14.1k | 17.5k | 11.2k | 11.2k – 17.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±675.32typical miss · 25 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.91 | 24.03 | 19.79 | 21.23 – 22.59 |
| 2028 | 22.08 | 25.76 | 18.4 | 20.45 – 23.72 |
| 2030 | 22.25 | 27 | 17.5 | 19.72 – 24.78 |
| 2035 | 22.67 | 29.39 | 15.96 | 17.97 – 27.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.27typical miss · 25 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1 | 6.57 | -2.69 | 1.08 – 3.13 |
| 2028 | 1.69 | 9.44 | -5 | -0.11 – 3.49 |
| 2030 | 1.28 | 11.28 | -5 | -1.04 – 3.6 |
| 2035 | 0.25 | 14.4 | -5 | -3.04 – 3.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.89typical miss · 4 realized · 187% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.66(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37.31 | 39.27 | 35.61 | 36.15 – 38.47 |
| 2027 | 36.4 | 38.31 | 34.74 | 33.7 – 39.09 |
| 2029 | 35.48 | 37.9 | 33.38 | 31.45 – 39.51 |
| 2034 | 33.19 | 36.62 | 30.22 | 26.3 – 40.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.47typical miss · 20 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 2.2bn |
| 2028 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 2bn – 2.3bn |
| 2030 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 1.9bn – 2.4bn |
| 2035 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 1.7bn – 2.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±19.5mtypical miss · 25 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.77 | 8.16 | 2.23 | 4.27 – 5.27 |
| 2028 | 5.16 | 11.04 | 0.76 | 4.18 – 6.14 |
| 2030 | 5.56 | 13.14 | -0.13 | 4.16 – 6.95 |
| 2035 | 6.54 | 15 | -1.51 | 4.15 – 8.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.53typical miss · 25 realized · 39% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.42 | 14.11 | 8.72 | 10.82 – 12.01 |
| 2028 | 11.55 | 16.21 | 6.88 | 10.28 – 12.81 |
| 2030 | 11.61 | 17.64 | 5.58 | 9.76 – 13.46 |
| 2035 | 11.66 | 20.18 | 3.13 | 8.49 – 14.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.18· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.83 | 4.11 | 3.55 | 3.71 – 3.95 |
| 2028 | 3.65 | 4.13 | 3.17 | 3.38 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.47 | 4.09 | 2.84 | 3.07 – 3.86 |
| 2035 | 3.01 | 3.89 | 2.13 | 2.38 – 3.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.4typical miss · 20 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TEA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 2.39 | 2025 (3.92) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -19.3271 + 5.5349·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.548 over 7 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.15 | 2024 (2.21) |
| 2027 | 4.17 | 2025 (1.91) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.2887 + -0.0617·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.543 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.5T | 2023 (3.99) |
| 2027 | 10.1T | 2024 (3.92) |
| 2028 | 10.1T | 2025 (3.92) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -15993656971287.174 + 6660271590472.773·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TEA?indicator= · API docs
