Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Europe & Central Asia (IDA & IBRD countries): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Europe & Central Asia (IDA & IBRD countries)'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.718 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.67 | 2025 |
Latest observed29.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.35 | 34.18 | 23.29 | 27.06 – 29.63 |
| 2028 | 26.56 | 36.67 | 17.81 | 23.85 – 29.28 |
| 2030 | 24.78 | 37.82 | 13.48 | 20.94 – 28.63 |
| 2035 | 20.33 | 38.77 | 4.35 | 14.44 – 26.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.17typical miss · 25 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5T | 8.3T | 6.8T | 7.3T – 7.7T |
| 2028 | 8.6T | 10T | 7.4T | 7.9T – 9.2T |
| 2030 | 9.6T | 11.4T | 8.1T | 8.5T – 10.7T |
| 2035 | 12.3T | 14.9T | 10.1T | 9.8T – 14.9T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.5T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5Ttypical miss · 25 realized · 27% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.69 | 12 | -6.03 | 0.97 – 4.41 |
| 2028 | 2.35 | 12 | -10 | -0.66 – 5.37 |
| 2030 | 2.01 | 12 | -10 | -1.9 – 5.92 |
| 2035 | 1.16 | 12 | -10 | -4.32 – 6.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.84typical miss · 25 realized · 166% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.2k | 17.9k | 14.7k | 15.7k – 16.7k |
| 2028 | 18.5k | 21.5k | 15.9k | 17.1k – 19.8k |
| 2030 | 20.8k | 24.6k | 17.4k | 18.4k – 23.1k |
| 2035 | 26.5k | 31.9k | 21.7k | 21k – 32k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.3ktypical miss · 25 realized · 28% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.39 | 32.17 | 26.62 | 28.48 – 30.3 |
| 2028 | 28.7 | 33.51 | 23.89 | 26.58 – 30.83 |
| 2030 | 28.01 | 34.22 | 21.8 | 24.82 – 31.2 |
| 2035 | 26.28 | 35.06 | 17.5 | 20.74 – 31.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.6typical miss · 25 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.96 | 16.24 | -5 | 3.58 – 8.33 |
| 2028 | 7.18 | 24.98 | -5 | 2.88 – 11.47 |
| 2030 | 8.39 | 31.38 | -5 | 2.63 – 14.16 |
| 2035 | 11.44 | 43.96 | -5 | 2.4 – 20.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.33typical miss · 4 realized · 168% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.7 | 26.95 | 22.75 | 23.94 – 25.47 |
| 2028 | 25.8 | 29.69 | 22.43 | 23.89 – 27.71 |
| 2030 | 26.9 | 31.92 | 22.54 | 23.84 – 29.95 |
| 2035 | 29.64 | 36.74 | 23.48 | 23.49 – 35.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.57typical miss · 25 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed462.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 462.8m | 484.7m | 442.5m | 448.5m – 477.2m |
| 2028 | 465.6m | 487.7m | 445.2m | 431.2m – 500.1m |
| 2030 | 468.5m | 490.6m | 447.9m | 415.3m – 521.7m |
| 2035 | 475.6m | 498m | 454.7m | 376.9m – 574.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead462.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.3mtypical miss · 25 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 8.02 | -1.71 | 1.72 – 3.19 |
| 2028 | 2.04 | 11.68 | -5.18 | 0.74 – 3.35 |
| 2030 | 1.63 | 14.07 | -7.7 | -0.05 – 3.32 |
| 2035 | 0.6 | 15 | -10 | -1.76 – 2.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.61· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.17typical miss · 25 realized · 291% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.15 | 11.06 | 3.24 | 6.44 – 7.86 |
| 2028 | 8.58 | 15.36 | 1.8 | 7.13 – 10.03 |
| 2030 | 9.28 | 18.03 | 0.53 | 7.2 – 11.36 |
| 2035 | 9.84 | 22.21 | 0 | 6.37 – 13.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.3· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.06 | 4.76 | 3.36 | 3.89 – 4.23 |
| 2028 | 2.93 | 4.14 | 1.73 | 2.61 – 3.26 |
| 2030 | 1.81 | 3.37 | 0.25 | 1.43 – 2.19 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 – 0.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.96typical miss · 20 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TEC · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 10.3932 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.687 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.5T | 2025 (4.62) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 8571011905904.94 + -674338854274.4298·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.65 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.91 | 2024 (4.03) |
| 2027 | 15.01 | 2025 (2.84) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 31.9939 + -5.9745·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TEC?indicator= · API docs
