Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Togo: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Togo's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.853 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.9 | 2025 (11.9bn) |
Latest observed-4.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.05 | -0.63 | -5.47 | -3.59 – -2.51 |
| 2028 | -3.55 | 0.64 | -7.74 | -4.58 – -2.52 |
| 2030 | -4.05 | 1.36 | -9.46 | -5.48 – -2.62 |
| 2035 | -5.3 | 2.35 | -12.95 | -7.71 – -2.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.75typical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.58(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24.33 | 26.42 | 22.52 | 23.58 – 25.09 |
| 2026 | 23.83 | 27.45 | 20.7 | 22.07 – 25.6 |
| 2028 | 23.34 | 28 | 19.29 | 20.69 – 25.99 |
| 2033 | 22.09 | 28.69 | 16.37 | 17.51 – 26.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.01typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.6bn | 13.6bn | 11.8bn | 12.2bn – 13bn |
| 2028 | 14.5bn | 16.2bn | 13bn | 13.4bn – 15.5bn |
| 2030 | 16.3bn | 18.5bn | 14.4bn | 14.5bn – 18.2bn |
| 2035 | 20.9bn | 24bn | 18.2bn | 16.6bn – 25.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±511.9mtypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.57 | 9.04 | 4.42 | 6.05 – 7.08 |
| 2028 | 7.17 | 11.45 | 3.47 | 6.12 – 8.23 |
| 2030 | 7.78 | 12 | 3 | 6.24 – 9.33 |
| 2035 | 9.31 | 12 | 2.53 | 6.51 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.57typical miss · 1 realized · 31% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5k | 1.6k | 1.4k | 1.4k – 1.5k |
| 2028 | 1.6k | 1.8k | 1.5k | 1.5k – 1.7k |
| 2030 | 1.8k | 2.1k | 1.6k | 1.6k – 2k |
| 2035 | 2.2k | 2.6k | 1.9k | 1.8k – 2.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±27.59typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.9 | 70.94 | 60.09 | 63.86 – 67.94 |
| 2028 | 67.9 | 76.62 | 57.83 | 62.88 – 72.92 |
| 2030 | 69.9 | 81.16 | 56.9 | 61.96 – 77.83 |
| 2035 | 74.89 | 90.83 | 56.51 | 59.36 – 90.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead65.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.35(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35.2 | 40.87 | 29.52 | 33.76 – 36.63 |
| 2026 | 34.89 | 44.72 | 25.07 | 31.71 – 38.07 |
| 2028 | 34.59 | 47.28 | 21.9 | 29.88 – 39.3 |
| 2033 | 33.83 | 51.78 | 15.89 | 25.67 – 41.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.21· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.3typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.27 | 5.41 | -5 | -1.55 – 1 |
| 2028 | -3.67 | 6.16 | -5 | -5 – -1.32 |
| 2030 | -5 | 7.69 | -5 | -5 – -1.79 |
| 2035 | -5 | 12.95 | -5 | -5 – -0.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.37typical miss · 1 realized · 125% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.98(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21.77 | 29.9 | 14.73 | 20.26 – 23.28 |
| 2026 | 23.42 | 37.49 | 11.22 | 20.28 – 26.55 |
| 2028 | 25.06 | 43.23 | 9.31 | 20.46 – 29.66 |
| 2033 | 29.17 | 54.87 | 6.9 | 20.83 – 37.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.41typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.5m | 9m | 8.2m | 8.3m – 8.8m |
| 2028 | 8.8m | 9.2m | 8.4m | 8.1m – 9.4m |
| 2030 | 9m | 9.4m | 8.6m | 7.9m – 10m |
| 2035 | 9.5m | 9.9m | 9m | 7.5m – 11.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±329.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.47 | 4.84 | 2.44 | 3.24 – 3.7 |
| 2028 | 3.5 | 5.88 | 1.72 | 3.04 – 3.97 |
| 2030 | 3.54 | 6.61 | 1.23 | 2.87 – 4.21 |
| 2035 | 3.62 | 7.97 | 0.36 | 2.5 – 4.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.59typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.93 | 2.26 | 1.59 | 1.84 – 2.01 |
| 2028 | 1.79 | 2.37 | 1.21 | 1.61 – 1.97 |
| 2030 | 1.65 | 2.41 | 0.9 | 1.41 – 1.9 |
| 2035 | 1.31 | 2.38 | 0.25 | 0.94 – 1.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.01· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TGO · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.583 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.837 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8bn | 2025 (2) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 13141485282.491 + -2570972177.721·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.591 over 18 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.9 | 2023 (64) |
| 2027 | -2.64 | 2024 (66.2) |
| 2028 | -2.79 | 2025 (64.9) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -10.4443 + 0.1179·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TGO?indicator= · API docs
