Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Tajikistan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Tajikistan's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.928 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.81 | 2023 (3.58) |
Latest observed8.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.66 | 30 | 7.37 | 16.84 – 22.48 |
| 2028 | 24.57 | 30 | 3.3 | 19.05 – 30 |
| 2030 | 29.48 | 30 | 2.02 | 21.52 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -8.84 | 17.27 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.8· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.46typical miss · 1 realized · 140% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.21(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.2 | 20.89 | 2.81 | 9.64 – 12.76 |
| 2027 | 11.18 | 27.96 | 0 | 8.25 – 14.11 |
| 2029 | 11.16 | 32.82 | 0 | 7.17 – 15.14 |
| 2034 | 11.1 | 41.73 | 0 | 4.95 – 17.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.77typical miss · 1 realized · 60% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.2bn | 21.4bn | 17.3bn | 18.6bn – 19.8bn |
| 2028 | 23bn | 26.8bn | 19.7bn | 21.3bn – 24.7bn |
| 2030 | 26.9bn | 31.8bn | 22.6bn | 23.8bn – 29.9bn |
| 2035 | 36.5bn | 43.5bn | 30.5bn | 28.9bn – 44.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.59 | 12 | 4.61 | 7.68 – 9.49 |
| 2028 | 9.02 | 12 | 2.14 | 7.27 – 10.78 |
| 2030 | 9.46 | 12 | 0.57 | 6.99 – 11.93 |
| 2035 | 10.56 | 12 | -2.02 | 6.45 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.29typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8k | 2k | 1.6k | 1.7k – 1.8k |
| 2028 | 2.1k | 2.4k | 1.8k | 1.9k – 2.2k |
| 2030 | 2.4k | 2.8k | 2k | 2.1k – 2.7k |
| 2035 | 3.2k | 3.8k | 2.6k | 2.5k – 3.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±243.89typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.65 | 25.71 | 4.03 | 13.85 – 17.45 |
| 2028 | 9.74 | 27.18 | 0 | 6.59 – 12.89 |
| 2030 | 3.83 | 26.34 | 0 | 0.06 – 7.6 |
| 2035 | 0 | 31.84 | 0 | 0 – 5.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.65typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.88(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 49.44 | 56.47 | 42.41 | 47.57 – 51.31 |
| 2027 | 52.57 | 64.75 | 40.38 | 48.18 – 56.95 |
| 2029 | 55.69 | 71.42 | 39.96 | 48.83 – 62.55 |
| 2034 | 63.5 | 85.75 | 41.26 | 49.94 – 77.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.86typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.46 | 6.26 | 0.46 | 2.78 – 4.14 |
| 2028 | 3.33 | 8.17 | -1.87 | 2.09 – 4.56 |
| 2030 | 3.19 | 9.45 | -3.51 | 1.55 – 4.83 |
| 2035 | 2.86 | 11.71 | -5 | 0.44 – 5.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.64typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.24(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29.62 | 36.82 | 23.38 | 28.12 – 31.12 |
| 2027 | 28.27 | 40.74 | 17.46 | 25.13 – 31.41 |
| 2029 | 26.92 | 43.03 | 12.97 | 22.47 – 31.38 |
| 2034 | 23.56 | 46.33 | 3.82 | 16.54 – 30.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.08typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.7m | 11.2m | 10.3m | 10.4m – 11.1m |
| 2028 | 10.9m | 11.5m | 10.5m | 10.1m – 11.8m |
| 2030 | 11.2m | 11.7m | 10.7m | 9.9m – 12.4m |
| 2035 | 11.7m | 12.3m | 11.2m | 9.3m – 14.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±200.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.24 | 11.84 | 2.04 | 5.44 – 7.04 |
| 2028 | 7.1 | 15 | -0.18 | 5.54 – 8.65 |
| 2030 | 7.95 | 15 | -1.44 | 5.75 – 10.16 |
| 2035 | 10.1 | 15 | -3.19 | 6.27 – 13.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.95· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.87typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.6bn | 5.4bn | 3.9bn | 4.4bn – 4.8bn |
| 2028 | 5.5bn | 6.8bn | 4.2bn | 5bn – 5.9bn |
| 2030 | 6.3bn | 8bn | 4.6bn | 5.6bn – 7.1bn |
| 2035 | 8.5bn | 10.9bn | 6.1bn | 6.7bn – 10.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.76 | 9.11 | 2.4 | 5.15 – 6.36 |
| 2028 | 5.76 | 11.58 | 0 | 4.6 – 6.93 |
| 2030 | 5.77 | 13.27 | 0 | 4.16 – 7.38 |
| 2035 | 5.77 | 16.38 | 0 | 3.22 – 8.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.87· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5bn | 5.6bn | 3.4bn | 4.3bn – 4.7bn |
| 2028 | 5.1bn | 6.9bn | 3.2bn | 4.5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2030 | 5.6bn | 8bn | 3.2bn | 4.8bn – 6.4bn |
| 2035 | 7bn | 10.4bn | 3.6bn | 5.4bn – 8.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.78 | 7.3 | 6.27 | 6.57 – 6.99 |
| 2028 | 6.49 | 7.38 | 5.59 | 6.01 – 6.97 |
| 2030 | 6.19 | 7.34 | 5.04 | 5.49 – 6.89 |
| 2035 | 5.45 | 7.08 | 3.82 | 4.32 – 6.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.84· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TJK · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 7.82 | 2024 (3.48) |
| 2028 | 7.82 | 2025 (3.39) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 7.8482 + -0.0093·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.841 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.08 | 2023 (12.2bn) |
| 2027 | 10.08 | 2024 (14.4bn) |
| 2028 | 11.57 | 2025 (17.7bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.469 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.817 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.3bn | 2023 (7.04) |
| 2027 | 9.3bn | 2024 (7.04) |
| 2028 | 9.1bn | 2025 (6.93) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -3949060698.218 + 1876597880.2192·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.791 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.3 | 2025 (18.6) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -2.6378 + 0.2656·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.763 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.13 | 2025 (3.39) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 32.1976 + 1.1605·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.679 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.49 | 2024 (7.04) |
| 2027 | 1.06 | 2025 (6.93) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -26.0611 + 3.9125·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TJK?indicator= · API docs
