Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Turkmenistan: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2000, 2002, 2004, 2009, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Turkmenistan's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.903 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.73 | 2023 (5.5) |
Latest observed1.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.61 | 9.87 | -6.66 | -0.11 – 3.32 |
| 2028 | 1.42 | 15.73 | -12.89 | -1.57 – 4.41 |
| 2030 | 1.23 | 19.7 | -17.25 | -2.64 – 5.1 |
| 2035 | 0.76 | 26.89 | -25.37 | -4.73 – 6.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.21typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.09 | 21.79 | 5.56 | 11.64 – 14.55 |
| 2028 | 10.34 | 25.4 | 0 | 7.69 – 12.99 |
| 2030 | 7.58 | 27.03 | 0 | 4.2 – 10.97 |
| 2035 | 0.7 | 28.2 | 0 | 0 – 4.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.24typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.8bn | 61.7bn | 45.1bn | 50.9bn – 54.7bn |
| 2028 | 60.6bn | 76bn | 47.2bn | 55.8bn – 65.3bn |
| 2030 | 68.3bn | 88.3bn | 51bn | 60.5bn – 76.2bn |
| 2035 | 87.7bn | 115.9bn | 63.3bn | 69.5bn – 105.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead90.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±30.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.32 | 6.65 | 6.03 | 6.12 – 6.51 |
| 2028 | 6.36 | 6.75 | 6.02 | 5.89 – 6.83 |
| 2030 | 6.41 | 6.91 | 5.97 | 5.68 – 7.13 |
| 2035 | 6.52 | 7.23 | 5.9 | 5.17 – 7.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.58· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.92typical miss · 1 realized · 163% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.9k | 8.1k | 5.8k | 6.6k – 7.1k |
| 2028 | 7.7k | 9.9k | 5.9k | 7.1k – 8.3k |
| 2030 | 8.6k | 11.3k | 6.2k | 7.6k – 9.6k |
| 2035 | 10.7k | 14.6k | 7.3k | 8.5k – 12.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 44% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.52 | 4.9 | 0 | 0 – 1.21 |
| 2028 | 0 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 – 1.22 |
| 2030 | 0 | 9.81 | 0 | 0 – 1.59 |
| 2035 | 0 | 13.87 | 0 | 0 – 2.29 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.38typical miss · 1 realized · 82% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.62 | 15.76 | 11.48 | 13.08 – 14.17 |
| 2028 | 13.48 | 17.18 | 9.77 | 12.26 – 14.69 |
| 2030 | 13.33 | 18.12 | 8.54 | 11.53 – 15.13 |
| 2035 | 12.96 | 19.73 | 6.19 | 9.85 – 16.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.8· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.02typical miss · 1 realized · 37% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.76 | 21.06 | -5 | -2.54 – 6.07 |
| 2028 | -0.9 | 32.53 | -5 | -5 – 6.56 |
| 2030 | -3.56 | 39.6 | -5 | -5 – 6.29 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 9.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.84typical miss · 1 realized · 69% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.91 | 20.35 | 12.05 | 15.02 – 16.8 |
| 2028 | 14.14 | 21.84 | 7.46 | 12.36 – 15.92 |
| 2030 | 12.37 | 22.32 | 3.75 | 9.96 – 14.78 |
| 2035 | 7.96 | 22.02 | 0 | 4.67 – 11.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.2typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.6m | 7.9m | 7.2m | 7.3m – 7.8m |
| 2028 | 7.7m | 8.1m | 7.4m | 7.1m – 8.3m |
| 2030 | 7.9m | 8.2m | 7.5m | 7m – 8.7m |
| 2035 | 8.2m | 8.6m | 7.8m | 6.5m – 9.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±829.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.87 | 9.82 | 1.16 | 4.18 – 5.57 |
| 2028 | 5.16 | 13.73 | -1.27 | 3.84 – 6.48 |
| 2030 | 5.44 | 15 | -2.85 | 3.62 – 7.26 |
| 2035 | 6.15 | 15 | -5.58 | 3.21 – 9.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.96typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(1999)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2002 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.6bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2004 | 2.1bn | 2.4bn | 1.8bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2009 | 2.6bn | 3.1bn | 2.2bn | 2.1bn – 3.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(1999)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2002 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.6bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2004 | 2.1bn | 2.4bn | 1.8bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2009 | 2.6bn | 3.1bn | 2.2bn | 2.1bn – 3.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.2 | 4.63 | 3.76 | 4.06 – 4.33 |
| 2028 | 4.06 | 4.81 | 3.3 | 3.75 – 4.37 |
| 2030 | 3.92 | 4.89 | 2.95 | 3.46 – 4.38 |
| 2035 | 3.57 | 4.95 | 2.19 | 2.79 – 4.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.27· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TKM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 3.58 | 2024 (4.1) |
| 2028 | 3.48 | 2025 (3.1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.1467 + 0.1062·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.797 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.91 | 2025 (2.7) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 7.9362 + -0.0085·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.793 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.04 | 2023 (-1.6) |
| 2027 | 15.29 | 2024 (4.6) |
| 2028 | 15.22 | 2025 (2.7) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 15.1048 + 0.0409·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.671 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.7bn | 2023 (5.5) |
| 2027 | 33.3bn | 2024 (4.1) |
| 2028 | 33.8bn | 2025 (3.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 35203895834.3772 + -454868486.1573·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.651 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 160.51 | 2025 (6.3) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 497.7406 + -53.5283·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TKM?indicator= · API docs
