Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Timor-Leste: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Timor-Leste's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.934 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.7 | 2023 (2.1bn) |
Latest observed-38.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -30 | 21.69 | -30 | -30 – -18.97 |
| 2028 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -10.29 |
| 2030 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -4.01 |
| 2035 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – 8.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-30· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.5typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.56(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13.97 | 54.2 | 0 | 8 – 19.94 |
| 2027 | 20.81 | 90.48 | 0 | 9.86 – 31.76 |
| 2029 | 27.64 | 117.59 | 0 | 12.58 – 42.7 |
| 2034 | 44.73 | 150 | 0 | 19.4 – 70.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.12· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7bn | 3.2bn | 331.1m | 1.5bn – 1.9bn |
| 2028 | 1.2bn | 3.9bn | 0 | 816.5m – 1.6bn |
| 2030 | 708.3m | 4.2bn | 0 | 236.5m – 1.2bn |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.9bn | 0 | 0 – 587.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±487.3mtypical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 5.57 – 12 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.62 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -2.91 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -9.65 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8typical miss · 1 realized · 200% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2k | 2.3k | 181.21 | 1k – 1.3k |
| 2028 | 795.43 | 2.8k | 0 | 520.98 – 1.1k |
| 2030 | 416.58 | 3k | 0 | 78.23 – 754.93 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.6k | 0 | 0 – 431.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±345.62typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.09 | 17.95 | 9.65 | 13.28 – 14.91 |
| 2028 | 15.68 | 22.35 | 7.98 | 13.9 – 17.46 |
| 2030 | 17.27 | 25.88 | 7.33 | 14.56 – 19.97 |
| 2035 | 21.23 | 33.42 | 7.18 | 15.96 – 26.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.19typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.89(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 87.14 | 112.58 | 61.71 | 81.86 – 92.43 |
| 2027 | 91.65 | 135.7 | 47.6 | 80.51 – 102.79 |
| 2029 | 96.15 | 150 | 39.28 | 79.76 – 112.55 |
| 2034 | 107.42 | 150 | 26.99 | 77.92 – 136.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead83.51· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.27 | 7.67 | -5 | -1.38 – 1.93 |
| 2028 | -2.01 | 10.79 | -5 | -4.95 – 0.92 |
| 2030 | -4.3 | 12.22 | -5 | -5 – -0.29 |
| 2035 | -5 | 18.37 | -5 | -5 – 0.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.83typical miss · 1 realized · 87% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.01(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28.31 | 43.12 | 15.47 | 25.74 – 30.88 |
| 2027 | 31.67 | 57.33 | 9.43 | 26.49 – 36.86 |
| 2029 | 35.04 | 68.16 | 6.33 | 27.5 – 42.57 |
| 2034 | 43.45 | 70 | 2.85 | 29.8 – 57.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.31· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4m | 1.5m | 1.4m | 1.4m – 1.5m |
| 2028 | 1.4m | 1.5m | 1.4m | 1.3m – 1.5m |
| 2030 | 1.5m | 1.5m | 1.4m | 1.3m – 1.6m |
| 2035 | 1.5m | 1.6m | 1.4m | 1.2m – 1.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.82 | 15 | -10 | 2 – 11.63 |
| 2028 | 12.02 | 15 | -10 | 3.3 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 3.28 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -2.27 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14.5typical miss · 1 realized · 322% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed806.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 799m | 1bn | 551.1m | 748.3m – 849.8m |
| 2028 | 787.3m | 1.2bn | 358m | 683.8m – 890.9m |
| 2030 | 775.7m | 1.3bn | 221.4m | 628.8m – 922.6m |
| 2035 | 746.5m | 1.5bn | 0 | 507m – 985.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead819.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.81 | 9.85 | 1.78 | 5.1 – 6.52 |
| 2028 | 5.88 | 12.86 | 0 | 4.53 – 7.23 |
| 2030 | 5.91 | 14.93 | 0 | 4.06 – 7.77 |
| 2035 | 5.94 | 18.69 | 0 | 3.04 – 8.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed806.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 799m | 1bn | 551.1m | 748.3m – 849.8m |
| 2028 | 787.3m | 1.2bn | 358m | 683.8m – 890.9m |
| 2030 | 775.7m | 1.3bn | 221.4m | 628.8m – 922.6m |
| 2035 | 746.5m | 1.5bn | 0 | 507m – 985.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead819.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.35 | 2.01 | 0.68 | 1.22 – 1.47 |
| 2028 | 0.86 | 2.01 | 0 | 0.63 – 1.08 |
| 2030 | 0.37 | 1.86 | 0 | 0.06 – 0.68 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 – 0.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TLS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 7.59 | 2024 (1.9bn) |
| 2028 | 7.78 | 2025 (1.9bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -2.0528 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.849 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.24 | 2023 (12.2) |
| 2027 | 0.95 | 2024 (13.6) |
| 2028 | 1.01 | 2025 (13.3) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.695 + -0.2016·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.838 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.3bn | 2023 (12.2) |
| 2027 | 3.5bn | 2024 (13.6) |
| 2028 | 3.5bn | 2025 (13.3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 965913947.6379 + 188890516.4453·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.572 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -51.86 | 2025 (13.3) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 116.7316 + -12.6764·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TLS?indicator= · API docs
