Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Tonga: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Tonga's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.664 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.05 | 2024 (1.97) |
Latest observed-7.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -7.58 | -4.67 | -10.5 | -8.3 – -6.87 |
| 2029 | -7.95 | -2.9 | -13 | -9.37 – -6.54 |
| 2031 | -8.32 | -1.8 | -14.84 | -10.32 – -6.33 |
| 2036 | -9.25 | -0.02 | -18.47 | -12.61 – -5.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-7.38· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.9(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.56 | 23.47 | 8.71 | 14.18 – 16.94 |
| 2027 | 12.89 | 26.59 | 1.01 | 10.31 – 15.46 |
| 2029 | 10.21 | 27.9 | 0 | 6.87 – 13.56 |
| 2034 | 3.53 | 28.55 | 0 | 0 – 7.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.04typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed679.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 745.9m | 785.1m | 712m | 722.8m – 769.1m |
| 2029 | 820.9m | 882.1m | 767.9m | 760.2m – 881.6m |
| 2031 | 895.9m | 974.9m | 827.4m | 794.2m – 997.6m |
| 2036 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 986.4m | 858.6m – 1.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead747.2m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.74 | 7.53 | -1.42 | 1.89 – 3.58 |
| 2029 | 3.75 | 12 | -3.46 | 2.18 – 5.31 |
| 2031 | 4.76 | 12 | -4.54 | 2.59 – 6.93 |
| 2036 | 7.28 | 12 | -5.87 | 3.59 – 10.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.6k | 8k | 7.2k | 7.4k – 7.8k |
| 2029 | 8.5k | 9.3k | 7.8k | 7.9k – 9.1k |
| 2031 | 9.4k | 10.4k | 8.5k | 8.3k – 10.4k |
| 2036 | 11.6k | 13k | 10.3k | 9.2k – 14k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.6k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 32.67 | 39.27 | 25.05 | 31.13 – 34.21 |
| 2029 | 29.21 | 40.65 | 16.02 | 26.05 – 32.38 |
| 2031 | 25.76 | 40.52 | 8.72 | 21.43 – 30.09 |
| 2036 | 17.12 | 37.99 | 0 | 11.16 – 23.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.68(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 59.96 | 66.79 | 53.13 | 57.96 – 61.97 |
| 2027 | 58.52 | 70.35 | 46.7 | 53.9 – 63.14 |
| 2029 | 57.09 | 72.36 | 41.82 | 50.18 – 63.99 |
| 2034 | 53.49 | 75.08 | 31.9 | 41.63 – 65.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead60.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.64typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.98 | 10.47 | -5 | 1.27 – 4.69 |
| 2029 | 0.47 | 13.45 | -5 | -2.46 – 3.39 |
| 2031 | -2.04 | 14.72 | -5 | -5 – 1.83 |
| 2036 | -5 | 18.7 | -5 | -5 – 1.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.15(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.33 | 34.03 | 17.8 | 23.69 – 26.98 |
| 2027 | 23.69 | 38.75 | 10.63 | 20.4 – 26.98 |
| 2029 | 22.04 | 41.49 | 5.18 | 17.5 – 26.58 |
| 2034 | 17.92 | 45.42 | 0 | 11.12 – 24.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.21· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.47typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed103.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 98.7k | 103.3k | 94.4k | 95.6k – 101.7k |
| 2029 | 93.5k | 98.2k | 89.1k | 86.5k – 100.4k |
| 2031 | 88.2k | 94.4k | 82.6k | 78.2k – 98.3k |
| 2036 | 75.2k | 83.9k | 67.2k | 59.6k – 90.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead98.5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 11.4 | -1.55 | 3.01 – 4.99 |
| 2028 | 5.57 | 15 | -4.05 | 3.7 – 7.44 |
| 2030 | 7.14 | 15 | -5.27 | 4.5 – 9.78 |
| 2035 | 11.07 | 15 | -6.49 | 6.37 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.3typical miss · 1 realized · 44% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed412.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 425.2m | 487.7m | 362.7m | 408.9m – 441.6m |
| 2028 | 460m | 568.2m | 351.7m | 421.3m – 498.6m |
| 2030 | 494.7m | 634.5m | 354.9m | 433.7m – 555.6m |
| 2035 | 581.5m | 779.2m | 383.8m | 458.2m – 704.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead439.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.48 | 13.5 | 7.47 | 9.85 – 11.11 |
| 2027 | 10.11 | 15.33 | 4.89 | 8.83 – 11.4 |
| 2029 | 9.93 | 16.67 | 3.19 | 8.1 – 11.76 |
| 2034 | 9.78 | 19.32 | 0.25 | 6.76 – 12.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.06· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed412.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 425.2m | 487.7m | 362.7m | 408.9m – 441.6m |
| 2028 | 460m | 568.2m | 351.7m | 421.3m – 498.6m |
| 2030 | 494.7m | 634.5m | 354.9m | 433.7m – 555.6m |
| 2035 | 581.5m | 779.2m | 383.8m | 458.2m – 704.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead439.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.88 | 2.5 | 1.27 | 1.76 – 2.01 |
| 2028 | 1.64 | 2.71 | 0.57 | 1.4 – 1.88 |
| 2030 | 1.39 | 2.77 | 0.01 | 1.07 – 1.72 |
| 2035 | 0.78 | 2.73 | 0 | 0.32 – 1.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.06· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TON · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 |
| 4.14 |
| 2025 (2.01) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -0.2048 + 2.1646·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.507 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -5.78 | 2025 (2.8) |
| 2028 | -6.19 | 2026 (2.3) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -8.048 + 0.8086·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TON?indicator= · API docs
