Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Tonga: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
| Year |
|---|
| Baseline |
|---|
| Optimistic |
|---|
| Pessimistic |
|---|
| Conf. band |
|---|
| 2027 | -7.58 | -4.67 | -10.5 | -8.3 – -6.87 |
| 2029 | -7.95 | -2.9 | -13 | -9.37 – -6.54 |
| 2031 | -8.32 | -1.8 | -14.84 | -10.32 – -6.33 |
| 2036 | -9.25 | -0.02 | -18.47 | -12.61 – -5.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12.86 | 20.41 | 6.32 | 11.57 – 14.14 |
| 2026 | 9.09 | 22.17 | 0 | 6.79 – 11.39 |
| 2028 | 5.32 | 22.2 | 0 | 2.48 – 8.16 |
| 2033 | 0 | 23.88 | 0 | 0 – 3.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 746.1m | 785.2m | 712.1m | 722.9m – 769.2m |
| 2029 | 821.3m | 881.4m | 769.2m | 760.5m – 882.1m |
| 2031 | 896.5m | 974.1m | 829.3m | 794.7m – 998.3m |
| 2036 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 989.6m | 859.6m – 1.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.74 | 7.55 | -1.42 | 1.9 – 3.59 |
| 2029 | 3.76 | 12 | -3.45 | 2.19 – 5.33 |
| 2031 | 4.78 | 12 | -4.53 | 2.61 – 6.96 |
| 2036 | 7.33 | 12 | -5.83 | 3.63 – 11.04 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.6k | 8.1k | 7.2k | 7.4k – 7.8k |
| 2029 | 8.5k | 9.4k | 7.8k | 7.9k – 9.2k |
| 2031 | 9.4k | 10.6k | 8.5k | 8.4k – 10.5k |
| 2036 | 11.7k | 13.4k | 10.3k | 9.3k – 14.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 32.67 | 39.27 | 25.05 | 31.13 – 34.21 |
| 2029 | 29.21 | 40.65 | 16.02 | 26.05 – 32.38 |
| 2031 | 25.76 | 40.52 | 8.72 | 21.43 – 30.09 |
| 2036 | 17.12 | 37.99 | 0 | 11.16 – 23.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 64.32 | 70.84 | 57.79 | 62.29 – 66.35 |
| 2026 | 63.19 | 74.49 | 51.89 | 58.43 – 67.96 |
| 2028 | 62.07 | 76.66 | 47.48 | 54.87 – 69.27 |
| 2033 | 59.26 | 79.89 | 38.63 | 46.62 – 71.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.15 | 11.14 | -3.33 | 2.54 – 5.77 |
| 2029 | 4.99 | 17.09 | -5 | 2.07 – 7.91 |
| 2031 | 5.83 | 21.45 | -5 | 1.9 – 9.76 |
| 2036 | 7.93 | 30.02 | -5 | 1.77 – 14.1 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26.62 | 35.53 | 18.91 | 24.92 – 28.32 |
| 2026 | 27.57 | 42.99 | 14.21 | 24.04 – 31.1 |
| 2028 | 28.52 | 48.43 | 11.27 | 23.39 – 33.65 |
| 2033 | 30.89 | 59.05 | 6.49 | 21.93 – 39.86 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 100.1k | 104.8k | 95.7k | 97k – 103.2k |
| 2029 | 100.1k | 105.3k | 95.3k | 92.7k – 107.5k |
| 2031 | 100.1k | 106.9k | 93.8k | 88.7k – 111.5k |
| 2036 | 100.1k | 109.7k | 91.2k | 79.3k – 120.9k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4.23 | 12.13 | -1.69 | 3.18 – 5.29 |
| 2026 | 4.24 | 15 | -6.01 | 2.33 – 6.16 |
| 2028 | 4.25 | 15 | -8.99 | 1.71 – 6.8 |
| 2033 | 4.28 | 15 | -10 | 0.48 – 8.09 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.88 | 2.5 | 1.27 | 1.76 – 2.01 |
| 2028 | 1.64 | 2.71 | 0.57 | 1.4 – 1.88 |
| 2030 | 1.39 | 2.77 | 0.01 | 1.07 – 1.72 |
| 2035 | 0.78 | 2.73 | 0 | 0.32 – 1.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-06-22 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TON · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
